The Markets

How's everyone's retirement fund doing? Retirees on a fixed income are hit pretty hard with inflation and when you pair that up with lost value to IRAs and 401Ks it's twice as bad.
If you're fairly young, I Bonds now are not a bad way to go. Little risk and are currently paying 9.1% interest. If you cash them out before 5 yrs. you do lose 3 mos. interest.
Just sold my house and are moving into a nicer (although equally priced) home. Mortgage interest is considerably higher than the one I'm giving up.
I'm not sure that the Fed will be able to get a strong grip on inflation until we're into a bad depression. Part of the problem is their inability to do much about energy costs which have been manipulated by the White House.
Good Luck!

 

6 months ago I pulled all of my 401k out of the market and put it in Tbills in anticipation of the downturn.
I'm not making much, but at least I'm not losing and hoping I have time to start over.

Had middle/left friend tell me today that while Biden isn't without blame, the energy companies are causing lots of trouble by refusing to produce oil/gas to get even with the Pres.
I don't even know where to start with that person.

 

Start by telling him that the reason they aren't jumping to produce is because it will cost them big bucks to ramp back up exploration and development only to be shafted again by the left once the crisis eases up and all that spending will be money thrown away.

 

One reply you can give to the hopeless leftists is that when Biden released oil from the petroleum reserve it was sold at the market price. If he still insists that the oil companies are gauging the public, then he is too selling for the same price. Also, besides the facts that Stu pointed out, there are some woke businesses like banks that refuse to finance further oil exploration. Also companies like Exxon have newly elected directors by some green oriented mutual funds that are changing corporate policy to the detriment of the public.

 

At the PGA Championship beer prices:
Michelob Ultra $18
Stella $19
So a round for you and 3 buddies is $72? (If you drink that weak stuff)

 

6 pack of Pacifico $9

Carne Asada Burrito $8

Golf Channel w/cable PRICELESS!

 

Well thanks to budget breaking inflation caused by excessive government spending and disastrous energy policy we''ve lost over 7 trillion in wealth this year. Everyone has heard about the baby formula caused by, what else, the morons in the administration in the FDA. Here's another shortage that's coming soon and it may be even more painful then what we've experienced. Here's a short article posted by a friend of mine who's a retired trucker.


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Diesel Peeps
Do you know what DEF fluid is? It's Diesel Exhaust Fluid. Every Diesel truck that has been made since 2010 is required to use it. It's a product made of 32.5 percent urea and 67.5 percent deionized water. Every newer diesel truck you see driving down the road today has to have this product to drive (by law). DEF is sprayed into the exhaust stream by an advanced injection system and then converted into ammonia on a catalyst. The ammonia breaks down dangerous NOx emissions produced by diesel engines into nitrogen and water.. That's the purpose of DEF.
Right now, Russia is the largest exporter of Urea by a wide margin. Qatar is second. Egypt and China are Tied for 3rd. Both Russia and China have decided to no longer export Urea. On top of that, India is the largest manufacturer of Urea in the world even though they consume most of what they make. What little they would export..........they no longer do. They are now stopping the exportation of any and all Urea minus a deal they just cut with Sri Lanka.
What does this mean for you and me? Well, first, the United States imports most of it's Urea fertilizer. We are the third largest importer in the entire world. We depend on other countries to eat, drive and ship our products.
Secondly... Flying J is the largest Service provider for Truckers around the Unites States. I'm sure you've seen their massive gas stations when traveling around the country. Flying J gets 70% of their DEF fluid from shipments via Union Pacific railroad. UP has single user access to the Fertilizer plants that Urea/DEF fluid comes from. No other rail provider has access to these distribution points. This means Flying J can't just go around Union Pacific. Union Pacific is in charge....for a reason I'm gonna mention in a few paragraphs.
Flying J provides 30% of all DEF consumed in the United States. UP has told Flying J to reduce their shipments by a whopping 50%. And if they do not comply then they will be completely embargoed. That would in effect bankrupt FJ. This means that 15% of all DEF consumed by truckers in the US is no longer available at the largest travel service center for the entire trucking industry.
Rome rotted from the inside out. It was easily invaded because it was occupied with internal problems. It appears we have discovered the Trigger. DEF fluid. If this holds up, DEF shortages will be the catalyst that causes food shortages in the coming months. Not only is there a shortage of fertilizer to grow crops in drought-stricken states (See Kansas' drop in wheat production for 2022)....but....now it looks like, unless the Federal Government intervenes via the Defense Production Act, ...which I am no longer confident they will....there is gonna be an absolute massive shortage of trucking in the coming months.
There simply isn't going to be DEF fluid sufficient to keep the engines running and moving. Home Depot is now limiting the amount of DEF you can buy in their stores.
I would think long and hard about the decisions you are making right now. Where you live. What you spend money on. How you prepare. This is so real that the CEO of Flying J, Shameek Konar was summoned to a Surface Transportation Board hearing to give them all this info.
From what I'm reading....Blackrock is the majority shareholder of Union Pacific railroad. How is that important? Americas biggest fertilizer producer is CF Industries. Their largest shareholder is Blackrock. Blackrock controls the fertilizer industry in the U.S.. Union Pacific has exclusive rights to distribution points of fertilizer. Urea is fertilizer. Flying J needs Urea/DEF. Blackrock is controlling everything.
The Chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute is Tom Donilon, President Obama’s former National Security Advisor. Tom Donilon’s brother, Mike Donilon is a Senior Advisor to Joe Biden. Tom Donilon’s wife, Catherine Russell, is the White House Personnel Director. Tom Donilon’s daughter, Sarah Donilon, who graduated college in 2019, now works on the White House National Security Council.
It appears Blackrock is spearheading the dismantling of the US system on behalf of the Globalists. And the first domino they are pushing over is the energy sector. They are using DEF to get the party started. This is one sector of the biggest downfalls in political repercussions this country has ever faced…

 

Well... there is another solution, but green Joe will NEVER go for it.
The DEF is not required to run the trucks, just the emissions equipment.
The truck brains can be reflashed to ignore the "requirement" for DEF until the supply is replenished at some point in the future.
I'm lucky... my diesel truck has been "adjusted" and no longer needs DEF.

 

It almost seems as though they want more carbon in the atmosphere so that they can continue to control every facet of our lives.

 

The fact that Joe OPENLY admitted that current gas prices are part of the "incredible transformation" should tell us all we need to know.
They are going to destroy our standard of living, and they DO NOT give damn.
There are going to be a lot of people in southern states who aren't really happy the grid can't support their air conditioners on "green" sources. I'm not even mentioning the millions of proposed cars that would also be pulling from said grid.

 

One twitter user has 7 rules to get through these hard economic times.

 

Market Gods are not happy with the Fed and Chair Powell....keep your hats strapped on tight

 

I think you mean keep your wallet close to your vest.

 

That too...speaking also to expected volatility. A great deal of uncertainty with big money on both sides. Upcoming data releases re: employment, prices and demand/growth likely to be esp meaningful

 

Yay Biden....

 

I've been relying on some stocks for income so I've been feeling some hurt. I've been shorting the QQQs and really paring my losses.

 

If only it were that easy Husker, this mess has a whole bunch of hands in the pot. The structural challenges we face are shared by every developed country in the world, many far worse than our own. Thankfully we are in a better position than most to withstand the pressure. No doubt this admin must accept their share of the blame but in fairness and truth global pandemic, supply chain constraints, central bankers and Putin collectively vastly more, imo

 

It's not all bad Gip.....income investors haven't had it this good in years. Solid, investment grade fixed income options/bonds are providing a real, inflation adjusted return for the first time in over a decade and now represent a viable alternative to stocks, particularly on a risk-adjusted basis. Congrats on the Q shorts.....be careful not to get your face ripped off with the anticipated volatility in the upcoming weeks/months. The old "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered" wisdom

 

I know what you're saying about bonds T. I've got a bond ladder and some are coming due in the next year. Nice to see the yields rising.