looks bad you will have to admit . 2007 gains are just about history!! I cant take any positives away now. you?
Well your dollar will buy more shares and when things start going back the other direction you'll be better off, right? At least that's what I'm doing.
in theory yes, thats correct. However, who feels like sinking more cash into a market thats plunging as this one!! I aint seen this since 2001!
Ironically, AMAT has risen 2.5% per day for the last 4 days. The bottom will fall out on AMAT as well, I am sure. I just placed an order to convert all of my company stock in my 401K to more stable investments. Monday morning, I am converting my stock holdings to cash. I got caught with my pants down in the last downturn. I didn’t believe it could go as low as it did. I didn’t lose anything since it came back up, but I didn’t capitalize on the downturn by selling, staying out of the market, and then getting back in at a lower price. This time will be different.
T T . Be careful. There is not a man alive that can TIME THE MARKET! ( By the way, markets closed Monday)
Sorry Jiffy.....I've been away and out of touch at the lake for the past week so I've missed your shout. Not alot of positives out there at this point in the cycle...and it is a very typical marekt action in this point in the business cycle. It's clear that the economy has slowed markedly and is retrenching.....it's also clear to me that there is much LESS risk in the market at these levels than we had 2000 Dow points ago. I don't know if we've seen the bottom yet, but from where I sit, we're closer to the bottom than the top......I'm a cautious buyer here. There are some sectors that are clearly oversold at these levels and they are typically the most economically sensitive sectors.....there is blood in the streets - I'm in! You know my risk management mantra.....establish your risk profile, diversify accordingly and rebalance periodically and all will be well. My risk profile and asset allocation guidelines tell me to buy stocks here.....
Tomorrow sounds like a bloodbath coming... Hunker down...watch your diversification...have faith...don't sell except to balance your portfolio.
As I sit here Tuesday AM with futures down almost 600 points..it looks bad. A 1% rate cut in the next hour or 2 might be the only thing to save this market.
Blood in the streets today baby! The faint of heart need to stay on the sidelines in bed. WOW - Fed just announced an intra-meeting 75bp cut in the funds rate. Dow futures just jumped by 350 points......not sure I like that action. There is nothing wrong with this market that fresh cash won't cure....fresh cash will come in when investors believe that prices have declined enough to provide return opportunities attractive enough to compensate for risk -v- alternative investments. That day will come for certain. Unless you need the money tomorrow, I wouldn't be selling anything today....
T Buck.. .75% was not enough. futures dropped, now spiking again. Looks like 1.5% should have been done.
Disagree Jiffy....the Fed needs to keep some powder dry. They have an FOMC meeting coming up in a week or so....my concern is that any action beyond what has been done prior to the meeting will be perceived as panic - and if the Fed is perceived as in panic mode its "Katie bar the door". All hell would break loose..... As for myself, I will take the opportunity to sell those sectors that have performed relatively well e.g., fixed income, utilities, health care and buy selectively those that have gotten crushed including some cyclical issues.....financials, real estate, technology. My sense is that the action Tom has seen in AMAT is indicative of that kind of interest.
T, 75 basis cut yesterday versus the 50 basis inter meeting cut of Sept 17, 2001, following the worse terrorist attack in history and the four days closure of the market. Doesn't this look like the panicking that you cautiously are keeping an eye on? I believe we'll see 10K on the Down in less than 2 years. Do you think I'm wrong?
TB, many do in fact see Bernanke's move as a panic move particlarly in light of an FOMC meeting in less than a weeks time......others are applauding his aggressiveness is addressing near term liquidity issues. Time will tell....I'm somewhere in the middle, but have placed my trading positions to benefit from a bounce off of the panic selling we saw at yesterdays open....todays action has seen smart money moving into banks and other cyclicals suggesting to me that they sense we are close to a bottom.... 10,000 on the Dow is not out of the question but in my view that would be a very low probability event. Only the most pessimistic of forecasters have the world economy falling to levels of output that would cause corporate earnings to decline to the depths that would suggest a 10,000 Dow for any period of time barring any extraordinary shocks........imho, fwiw.
Jiffy, Dow and S&P up on the week....a massive rally off the bottom at the open Tuesday morning. Fresh money coming into weak sectors - e.g., financials and rotating out of certain defensive sector. You feeling better yet? :wink:
no feel better yet!!! Talking heads on CNBC telling me it was a false bottom. Some also talking about another 10% to go down. Then you have FORTUNE magazine telling me Dow will end up 15% for 2008!
Speaking of CNBC, Jim Cramer claims we reached the bottom last Tuesday when the market turned around. He says we may test it again but his feeling is that we reached the bottom. I hope he's right.
Bill. Cramer is a "showman" as you must know. I once followed his portfolio and if I had purchased his stocks, I would have been in big trouble!
Yeah, we may not have hit bottom, but it won't be 5,000, Joel... My feeling is that the bottom won't be much further down...problem could be no growth for quite a while.