Bill, like I said above, I would like to know how Sagarin arrives at his ratings. It seems like they get more accurate as the season progresses, which makes sense.
No set of data seems possible that would have Mississippi State at number 8 after they lost the OUTBACK bowl. But here it is: College Football Ratings Page
If you look at Sagarin's numbers, the final number is the rating based on the average of three different models. The first two models look at points scored for the entire season, but handle them a bit differently. The third model (Recent) might keep everyone happier...it is more heavily weighted on recent play. The top three would be unchanged. 1. Clemson 2. Alabama 3. Ohio State 4. Notre Dame 5. Oklahoma 6.Georgia 7.LSU 8. Texas 9. Florida 10.Washington Michigan would drop down to #22. Mississippi State to #19 Iowa to #17
I never noticed that before, thanks. Seems his three models differ quite a bit. However he still doesn't have much credibility with me with his average model.
I don't know. If I get time I'll go back and see how he did in the last few weeks of the season and the bowl games. His predictions seem to get better as the season progresses.
I think you are right kp, since it's a mathematical/statistical model the more data points he has the more accurate it's going to be, so early season will have less data than later in the season.
The only problem is that his final rankings look suspect to me. The late season look good but what jumps out when you open the site has Iowa and Miss State top 10 and Florida is 14 or something like that. Not very accurate in my opinion.
I see that they have new members on the Playoff Committee. R. C. Slocum is one of them, the others are the Ark State AD Terry Mohajir, and Ray Odierno, a former chief of staff of the U.S. Army. I don't know why but I'm a little surprised at the addition of RC Slocum, not that he's unqualified he won a Nat'l Championship and coached for a long time. But I just never hear his name anymore.