This represents another area of frustration. Although there were some early attempts to categorize age groups and risk factors, there hasn't been clear and clean updates from what I've been able to find. It is quite likely that we "burned through" the at-risk individuals, and at the time base and alpha would largely have not been a considerable risk for the young and healthy. Delta is reported to change that equation, but the statistics available don't give a complete argument in that regard, because it could either be more virulent in general, or the younger are the less likely part of the population to have been vaccinated, or they were the ones that had asymptomatic illness that is not sufficient to protect against Delta (if that truly is the case). Another complicating factor is that not all positive tests are created equal. In many instances, if the sensitivity is too high, what is actually being detected are dead / deactivated portions of the virus, and the person that tests "positive" may neither have the virus currently, nor would they have fought it off successfully and have developed immunity. A false positive would be severely complicating to the data if one did perform a study of immunity developed from illness because you're evaluating a population that has been "confirmed" positive, but really never did. The result of this would be that studies that didn't correct for that would underestimate the effectiveness of illness-derived protection. One final note of infuriation is the number of people that should "trust the science" from the mountain tops. Most people never even see the science. The first tier see reporting from the news, that have the potential to introduce human error and bias into a study or stub. The second tier, for those that dig into the study or stub may bypass the reporter's human error and bias, but then have to worry about the error of interpretation or bias of the scientist or team. The third tier, for those that dig into the underlying data, have to worry about the setup and any errors that may have arisen from not properly accounting for those errors. Believing in the scientific method is all well and good, but the scientific method itself is a recognition that mistakes are going to be made, and that scientific consensus can and should change as additional data is presented and evaluated. The scientific method is itself supposed to support and celebrate differences of opinion to see which opinions rise to the top. Science is not a single, monolithic thing to which everyone has equal access. Political abuse of "science" is awash in the existing landscape. I readily admit I don't know the "right" answer, but many people that are castigating enemy segments of the public for not "trusting the science" don't even know the right questions to ask.
I've been reading about the miracle of mRNA for at least a decade, and it was always an exciting development. Early on, the potential was described as "personalized vaccinations" that could be developed quickly and cheaply to combat some of the more difficult and rare cancers, sometimes using an individual's own DNA. I haven't kept up with those developments so I don't know how far along they've come, but this mRNA tactic is revolutionary. From a clinical mindset, that is exciting and a beautiful development. From a human, emotional mindset, that is also scary when one considers how many evil things people (and corporations) have done in the name of profit and advancement in medicine.
Interesting reminder today on one of the shows. First, just as the virus surges in the north in winter when everyone is inside, the southern states have the opposite timing since it's the summer when most are indoors. The virus had a short surge in England but it was no where near as extensive as the original surge. The fact is the available hosts are considerably less due to vaccination and acquired immunity. I'm looking forward to the numbers tailing off quickly in the next couple of weeks.
The surge is making Colleges in Texas rethink their protocols, testing, and masks. Privates can require masks in the classroom like Rice, while Univ of Texas can suggest but not require. Testing for unvaccinated continues into the Fall at most schools. Rice University will require masks indoors for all individuals this fall, officials said Tuesday. The mandate rescinds its policy released in May, which lifted mask requirements for those who are vaccinated. Masks outdoors, however, are still not required. Bridget Gorman, dean of undergraduates, also wrote in a Tuesday letter that while alcohol will be permitted on campus according to policy, cross-college events that invite the public would be canceled. The college is also delaying the reopening of Willy’s Pub through September after closing it last March. “Let me first say that while these policies move us farther away from ‘normal’ campus operations than we had hoped to be at this time, we are not returning to the very stringent rule structure we had in place all of last year,” Gorman assured students. Link might be paywalled. Some Texas colleges to alter fall semester plans, as delta variant spreads
Local school districts are prevented from requiring masks and parents' reactions are as expected divided, with parents taking both sides. One of my employees who has kids in the local school district is concerned she has one child who is vaccinated but another that is too young. Both though have also had covid and recovered. Not much the schools can do with the state law being what it is, other than suggest that the students wear masks indoors. I have one patient who plays football and I asked him what the policy is going to be regarding testing and stuff...he said the players haven't been told anything yet. Texas did play a full season of football last year so that isn't a concern this year. But I can imagine that we'll still see some games postponed or cancelled due to covid outbreaks.
I hope you're right. I keep looking for the peak to happen and the curve to go down. If you remember a few weeks ago, India was getting crushed by the Delta variant...with lack of vaccines and insufficient hospital beds, etc. The virus did what viruses do and ran it's course. Unfortunately, the death rate during that outbreak was pretty high, I presume because of the sparse health care and because they really did not have the huge spike other countries did with the first wave.
UK seems to be on a similar downside of their recent spike...but they did not seem to get the huge spike in deaths...and hopefully we won't either. I would hypothesize that's due to having had a previous outbreak, better health care, and vaccines.
Inside a hospital in Louisiana. Things are bad. It’s by far the most COVID patients the 330-bed hospital has housed since the pandemic entered Louisiana in March of 2020 — a steep rise from the earlier peak of around 50 patients in last winter’s surge, said Dr. Stacy R. Newman, North Oaks’ infectious disease physician. North Oaks is one of hundreds of hospitals across Louisiana packed to the brink with COVID-19 patients as the more-virulent delta variant rips through the state’s population, which has one of the nation’s lowest rates of vaccination against the virus at 37.2%. The state set a new peak for COVID-19 hospitalizations on Wednesday with 2,247 patients, the Louisiana Department of Health said. The vast majority of those patients are unvaccinated. The crushing wave of cases is overwhelming understaffed hospitals, testing doctors’ ability to provide quality care and straining hospital workers’ mental health to the brink as they battle yet another surge of the deadly virus. This time, medical experts agree the wave was preventable due to the availability of vaccines. As new COVID strain rages, a look inside a packed Louisiana hospital: ‘We haven’t had many wins’
Two trends are continuing, Covid hospitalizations are up and vaccinations are slowly ticking upwards as well. Unfortunately the hospitals are getting overwhelmed in a number of areas and in Houston some hospitals are postponing elective surgeries again. I saw an article about a Church in Fla that had 6 members, who were unvaccinated, die from Covid. The Pastor said enough, we need to get vaccinated. He and his family have been vaccinated and he took to the pulpit to encourage the church members to do the same. Good for him. Florida church holds vaccine clinic after 6 die of COVID, pastor says “Part of my resolve is, yes we are praying, but we aren’t just going to be praying,” said Davis on Sunday. “We are going pray and do something. And part of our do something in this situation is that we are having a vaccination event.” The church hosted a free vaccination clinic on Sunday for anyone who wanted to get the Coivd-19 vaccine. The clinic was held in partnership with health officials from University of Florida Health. Along with offering the Pzifer vaccine, Davis said they had medical educators available for anyone who had questions or concerns about vaccinations. “My family and I are all fully vaccinated,” said Davis. “I’m not asking you to be vaccinated because I don’t want to pressure you. We are simply making it available for those who want it.” ________________________________ On the other hand, the idiot Congresswoman from Georgia was in Alabama at an event was spouting off about how proud she was of the resistance of southerners to the Vaccine terrorism of the Biden administration. Be proud you are unvaccinated.
The church where the Covid deaths occurred is an African American church in Jacksonville. Once again we're told that Republicans are the ones not getting vaccinated but the lowest vaccination rates are in the minority communities.
Pentagon makes the decision. I'm sure there will be some resistance to this from those affected if they have been reluctant to get vaxed so far. While quitting isn't really an option, I read an article that said that if you quit or get fired from your job for refusing to follow company policy on vaccination you are not likely to qualify for unemployment. WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon will require members of the U.S. military to get the COVID-19 vaccine by Sept. 15, according to a memo obtained by The Associated Press. That deadline could be pushed up if the vaccine receives final FDA approval or infection rates continue to rise. “I will seek the president’s approval to make the vaccines mandatory no later than mid-September, or immediately upon" licensure by the Food and Drug Administration "whichever comes first,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says in the memo to troops, warning them to prepare for the requirement. "I will not hesitate to act sooner or recommend a different course to the President if l feel the need to do so.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/p...r-all-troops-by-sept-15/ar-AAN794P?li=BBnb7Kz
So how long until we are like the Euro's with police walking the streets checking people for vaccination proof? Lord help us if we get to Australia's military being used to enforce lockdowns. Yep... I'm gonna be over dramatic!
UT Austin will require students to have a negative Covid test before they can start classes. The University of Texas at Austin will once again require students to be tested for the COVID-19 virus before the fall semester and will allow faculty to adjust how their classes are held in the first few weeks. Students coming to campus from outside of Austin must be tested three days before they arrive in the city, UT-Austin Provost Sharon L. Wood said in a Tuesday release to the community. Similarly, students residing in Austin who plan to stay in student housing must test and show proof of their negative results three before move-in, and students living off-campus in Austin must test three days before classes start Aug. 25.
Here are two recent studies I'd like to share. I will refrain from commenting on the methodology or their interpretation, taking their findings at face value. First, from The Lancet in April, pre-Delta variant: DEFINE_ME Their interpretation of the data was that recovering from a prior COVID infection provided an 84% reduction against risk of reinfection. My commentary: 1) Recovering from a more severe infection has previously been thought (though not proven at this point) to impart a higher level of protection than a less severe infection. 2) It is thought that Delta has changed this equation, but there are no studies of which I'm aware that provide that data. 3) Assuming additional scientific study continues to show that recovering from a COVID infection provides similar protection to the vaccine, is it conscionable to require these individuals to put a chemical in their bodies? Second, from the CDC last week (data from May/June of this year, may include Delta): Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19... Their interpretation is that for individuals that have recovered from COVID, unvaccinated are more than 2x more likely to be reinfected. My commentary: 1) Is the highest level of protection gained from BOTH recovering from COVID infection AND being vaccinated? 2) Should we be forcing exposure to COVID on everyone that is fully vaccinated to ensure they are even MORE protected? I am glad to see the CDC information and hope to see more studies like these in the future, hopefully with more scope.
It does seem that if you have had Covid that you have acquired some immunity, whether it's as good as getting a vaccine probably not enough data to make a definitive statement. I hadn't really thought about there being a difference in acquired immunity between asymptomatic, mild, moderate, or severe cases. I wonder if those who get the vaccine and have no reaction, or a mild reaction have fewer antibodies than those who got knocked down for a day or 2, I had what I would consider a mild reaction to the 2nd shot, no reaction to the 1st shot. To me it seems a no brainer to go ahead and get the vaccine even if you have had Covid, I would absolutely do that as I have a high level of confidence in the vaccine safety. I will also get a booster if and when one becomes available. I've actually considered getting the Pfizer even though I've had the moderna as I saw something once that there is a thought that if you get both it might act like a booster and you'd have higher/longer immunity. But nobody is really recommending that.
That is a great question! I don't disagree. Yeah, I haven't really seen anything data-based about that. I've heard speculation about the potential cross-technology benefits (J&J followed by P/M, or P/M followed by J&J) but not seen anything credible.
Okay, now this is funny: Kids are using soft drinks to fake Covid-19 positive tests – the science and how to spot it A not-so-serious-but-potentially-true-thought: how much could elevate the number of cases if this becomes a Tik Tok or YouTube challenge????
Is Delta the final wave? Burn through the unvaccinated in a way to get us to that herd level we need? Tough way to do it but that's what people seem to want. _____________ The delta variant may create the ‘final wave’ in U.S., expert says The current surge of coronavirus from the delta variant might be the final wave of COVID-19 cases in the United States, Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Monday. Gottlieb, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, told CNBC that he believes the delta variant surge will be the final big wave of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. “I don’t think COVID is going to be epidemic all through the fall and the winter. I think that this is the final wave, the final act, assuming we don’t have a variant emerge that pierces the immunity offered by prior infection or vaccination,” Gottlieb told CNBC. “This is probably going to be the wave of infection that ends up affecting the people who refuse to get vaccinated,” he added. Gottlieb told CNBC that the current wave will infect unvaccinated people so much that “we’re going to reach some level of population-wide exposure to this virus, either through vaccination or through prior infection that’s going to stop circulating at this level, at this rate.” The delta variant may create the ‘final wave’ in U.S., expert says
In a bold move defying the Gov of Texas, Houston Independent School District, has mandated that all faculty, staff and students wear a mask. This will generate mucho controversy and law suits I have no doubt. HOUSTON – Houston ISD’s new superintendent told KPRC 2 on Wednesday that the district will implement a mask mandate for the 2021-2022 school year. According to HISD Superintendent Millard House II, the school board supports his decision to mandate masks for students and staff at the beginning of the school year. On Monday, House voiced his concerns about students wearing masks as the number of COVID-19 cases rises due to the delta variant.
I guess I'm glad I got the Moderna vax. Driving the news: The study, conducted by nference and the Mayo Clinic, compared the effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in the Mayo Clinic Health System over time from January to July. Overall, it found that the Moderna vaccine was 86% effective against infection over the study period, and Pfizer's was 76%. Moderna's vaccine was 92% effective against hospitalization and Pfizer's was 85%. But the vaccines' effectiveness against infection dropped sharply in July, when the Delta variant's prevalence in Minnesota had risen to over 70%. Moderna was 76% effective against infection, and Pfizer was only 42% effective. The study found similar results in other states. For example, in Florida, the risk of infection in July for people fully vaccinated with Moderna was about 60% lower than for people fully vaccinated with Pfizer. New data suggests Pfizer and Moderna's vaccines may be less effective against Delta