I was beginning to like Ron DeSantis the GOP governor of Florida with the way he was handling Covid-19 in Florida until he said this about churches holding religious services: "DeSantis on Thursday suggested that elected officials instead work with faith leaders to keep people safe while allowing them to worship, adding that the Easter season is approaching. “We absolutely ask them to abide by social distancing guidelines,” DeSantis said. “But in times like this, the service they’re performing is going to be very important for people." Seriously? Important enough to needlessly spread the virus amongst themselves, their families and the community? WTF???? And what about the 500 nutjobs that packed in to the church here in Tampa last Sunday? The longer these idiots do such stupid **** things with no regard to the health of themselves or their fellow human beings the longer the rest of us have to hole up like rats doing nothing.
It's going to be interesting for dental practices, the N95 mask which previously no dentist likely would have worn, seems to be what they are saying we need to be safe going forward. Good luck in getting them, even front line hospitals/ER's are struggling to maintain a supply. Plus they are significantly more expensive than the surgical masks we have been wearing.
Dave that's what the Gov of Texas also recommended, in his latest mandate. Here in Texas, so far at least, most churches have said they will be continuing with the online services. If my parish were to hold services I would not attend even with social distancing. I could see churches as being as safe as the grocery store though, if they rigorously practiced social distancing and limited the number of people allowed into the church to make sure they didn't end up with too many to allow for that, have alternate rows completely empty, etc. Packing them into the church is irresponsible.
Re hand sanitizer, you might try Etsy.com. Type in alcohol based hand sanitizer in the search box. There are several vendors who are selling sanitizer in stock with an alcohol content of 60% or higher. Obviously these are small vendors making homemade sanitizer but checking the reviews, the vendors length of time selling on Esty, and the item’s description of the contents help in trying to determine if the vendor is reliable. Most are based in the USA. Amazon has been flooded with Chinese vendors since Covid reached the USA and it does not seem Amazon does much, if any, quality control re vendors using its platform. This pandemic certainly has caused the scam artists to swarm.
Charts updated from 4/2 data: SARS-COV-2-charts-200402 Total cases: Still trending higher, but any interpretation of these trends should be cautiously made. Total fatalities: Lagging indicator, but the last two data points would indicate that some of the effort made into testing, tracking, isolating may finally be showing up here. The last two days have seen a decline in the steepness of the curve. In large part, this is probably due to New York, California, and Washington's isolation efforts. However, the rest of the state's curves are currently overshadowed by the those big three. When states like Michigan, Louisiana, and Florida start ramping up, this slope may trend more vertical again. As a reminder: - from infection to exhibition of symptoms is 5-6 days (with extremes of 2-14) - time from initial symptoms to death is 14 days (with extremes of 6-41) - time from onset of symptoms to death is 18.5 days As a result, each fatality represents an X-factor of infections that began between 2 and 3 weeks prior. "Simple" mortality: I repeat, this statistic is likewise close to useless. However, what concerns me about the USA trend is that it has climbed every day for the last week, despite an increase in the number of tests performed. With tests being the denominator, I would expect that to have a large downward pressure on this trend. However, the steepness has moderated the last two days, so improvements in treatment (unknown how widespread plasma, Hydroxychloroquine, and other test treatments) and isolation may be helping this come back down. Comparing...: It based on fatalities, the number of infected two weeks ago was likely 10x the number of confirmed cases as of yesterday. However, since the doubling rate in New York, Washington, and California are likely 6+, the worst-case calculations will appear high until the overshadowed states of Michigan, Louisiana, Florida, et al really start seeing the extent of their infections. All of the forecasting instantly becomes obsolete, however, if widespread rollout of Hydroxychloroquine begins (which means the effectiveness will have been proved and the relationship between fatalities and numbers of infected will drastically change). **** begin repeated explanation **** I have made the following four-corner bracketing assumptions for the directly calculated trends (these end on 3/12 for the two 14 day trends and 3/19 for the two 7 day trends): - there seems to be consensus that the mortality of the virus is somewhere in the range of 0.5% and 3.5%. I chose bracketing cases of 0.5% and 2.0%. Please note that the lower the mortality rate, the more infections each fatality represents. - time between infection and death is between 2 and 3 weeks. I chose bracketing cases of 1 and 2 weeks because the trends are not yet mature enough to go back 3 weeks, and the numbers get much bigger at the 3 week end of things. This selection should underpredict actual infection numbers. In order to make a guess as to where the number of infections are currently, I looked at reports for the doubling rate (the rate at which the number of cases doubles). Various studies report 2-3 days, 3-4 days, and 5-6 days. Although this is heavily influenced by the amount of testing done, the studies seemed to generally come from locations where steady testing was being performed. A study from California represented a good median of 4 days. A big caveat to this is that it is impossible to know when sufficient controls have been put in place to effectively curb transmission, which would extend (or eliminate) doubling. The soonest this would have occurred here in the US is Monday. However, with at least half the country not under stay at home orders, and those states with stay at home orders not under draconian lockdown, I would guess we haven't seen much reduction from the 4 day doubling rate yet. At some point, the calculated values (after 3/12 for the two 14 day trends and after 3/19 for the two 7 day trends) will separate from actual, but that won't be apparent until the fatalities trend starts to level off. As long as the fatalities trend continues in a logarithmic manner, the lagging CALCULATED probable cases that existed 2-3 weeks ago is a much better representation of the number of actual infections than the reported number of confirmed positive cases. **** end **** 3/12 data: - confirmed cases reported: 1,697 - fatalities reported: 41 3/19 data: - confirmed cases reported: 13,789 - fatalities reported: 207 3/26 data: - confirmed cases reported: 85,435 - fatalities reported: 1,295 4/2 data: - confirmed cases reported: 244,877 - fatalities reported: 6,070 Case A (too low) - 7 days infection to death (too low), 2.0% mortality rate (too high?): - 64,750 calculated infected on 3/19 - 303,500 calculated infected on 3/26 - 1,020,400 predicted infected on 4/2 Case B (probable?) - 7 days infection to death (too low), 0.5% mortality rate: - 259,000 calculated infected on 3/19 - 1,214,000 calculated infected on 3/26 - 4,081,600 predicted infected on 4/2 Case C (probable?) - 14 days infection to death (2-3 weeks is most likely), 2.0% mortality rate (too high?): - 303,500 calculated infected on 3/19 - 1,020,400 predicted infected on 3/26 - 3,242,400 predicted infected on 4/2 Case D (probable? high?) - 14 days infection to death (2-3 weeks is most likely), 0.5% mortality rate: - 1,214,000 calculated infected on 3/19 - 4,081,600 predicted infected on 3/26 - this assumes the doubling rate stayed at 4 after lockdown orders went into effect, bad assumption right now due to New York, California, and Washington overshadowing all others - removed
My mother-in-law got her test results back today and she was negative for COVID19. So that's one less thing.
Mike, Glad to help. Corey, Whew....great to hear that your MIL and your family and you dodged the Covid bullet.
Strong gambit, Taiwan. China, you are in Check. Taiwan to donate 10 million masks to countries hit hardest by coronavirus
Honk Kong International Airport becomes the first service/municipality to engage 100% testing of incoming travelers. Very smart. Why? Because of the following three additional pieces of information that have yet to be put together by any other public agency. 1) Two studies of data from populations that were 100% tested (a virus-infested cruise and a small town in Italy) regardless of symptoms, and another town in (Ireland?) where about 60% of the population was tested regardless off symptoms. All of these show that about half (45%-55%) of the people that contract the virus never show symptoms. 2) Other studies over the last ten years have shown that speaking, and even breathing, create aerosols (particles < 0.2u). [The latest I had read is the WHO continues to insist that SARS-COV-2 is not an airborne virus, and can only be contracted from sneezes/coughs that drop to the ground within a few feet. Please correct me if you have heard differently.] 3) Another study of data from the church choir in February (?) indicated that airborne virus was still viable after 3 hours, when they stopped their testing. The good new from #1 above is that, this likely means the direct mortality from COVID-19 is 0.5%-1.0%. The downside is that, as suspected, all of the current screening protections in practice (taking temperatures, 14-day quarantines, self-isolation, etc.) are AT BEST only effective at detecting/preventing half of the people that have contracted the virus. The other half are still among us, spreading the virus, NOT through coughs and sneezes. Combining #2 and #3 show why it is a necessity that everyone in public cover their mouth and nose, even if you are asymptomatic. Just breathing and talking can aerosolize the virus. And that virus can then linger for hours. Masking, then screening every single arrival, regardless of symptoms, will nearly 100% prevent transmission from that incoming source. Masking everyone in public has almost the same level of effectiveness. Taking temperatures is effective at finding 50% of infected a week after they became infected, and without masking, likely passing on the virus for that week unknowningly. HKIA, doing it right.
I like to sing karaoke.... especially since I gave up drinking over three years ago. So I just have to wonder at what point will I be comfortable taking that mike after someone else was just up there with it in hand and spraying all over as they sing. And this coming football season.... if there is a season..... you won't find me sitting amongst 90,000 in the Swamp if Covid still lurks in the general population. It's been proven to be that infectious and a serious disease for many who get it.... especially for those 65 and older like myself. Very disheartening for those of us who cannot afford to get it.
Dave, I’m always wishing you the best, life is unfortunately too short and folks unappreciative of those they have known and care about. I realize we think differently at times politically but I want only the best for you and your family. Kinda feel we are somewhere in between in what we call normal, can’t see many 90k stadiums filled any time soon, and if they do not sure if it’s very smart
"the direct mortality from COVID-19 is 0.5%-1.0%" People need to read that and UNDERSTAND what it means.
Thanks for those kind words Ralph..... same to you and your family also. For older people that mortality rate jumps a little but even if it seems low the rate of hospitalizations is significant and the disease at that point is pretty severe and certainly no fun..
Dave, two thoughts about your karaoke mike...IF we get an effective vaccine (not a given) then you can go back to just worrying about getting a cold or something from it. (Which I always worried about)... Also I can see them coming up with disposable "masks" for the mike... And be sure to use your hand sanitizer after you touch it!
Stu I think my singing career is on hold as long as this Covid is floating around ( literally )..... My wife is really really concerned about getting it and takes every precaution not to get it and expects me to also. Therefore... by protecting myself I protect her and I owe that dedication to caution to her.
Thinking about what Kes posted, esp #2,#3. It almost seems like we are pretty much walking around in an environment that the air we breathe is contaminated. I frequently walk the neighborhood for exercise and in my neighborhood there aren't really a lot of walkers, I can go blocks without encountering anybody walking and in a 3 mile walk encounter fewer than 20 people spread out pretty widely. I don't wear a mask because I can negotiate a min of 20 feet social distancing. But now I'm thinking that I'm walking through a cloud of all the exhalation of everybody who walked in the 3 hours before I walked. So that my extreme social distancing might not make much difference. I get 20 feet from the other walker but might be walking through a cloud of stuff from somebody 3 hours ago.
LOL Terry. I go walking with the kid every night and don't view it in the least risky. There are so many protection factors when walking outside, where the air is constantly moving, vs. in a mostly-enclosed system (office/hospital/store) where the air gets continuously recycled and include a plethora of dead spots where air can "linger". Outside, due to natural turbulence and dispersion, you are extremely unlikely to encounter a breath molecule, much less a virus particle, from someone that occupied that space a minute before you, much less an hour. On top of that, although I'm not aware of any studies that indicate what the threshold is for the number of particles that need to be inhaled for an elevated risk of infection, there are reports that increased viral load (in hospital rooms) could increase the severity of the infection. Breathing in a couple virus particles here and there wouldn't likely cause infection. And to top it off, UV has been shown to destroy/deactivate the virus, and I hear part of the solar spectrum includes the UV wavelength. When outside, the bigger risk is direct impingement of a sneeze or cough (or close talking). Inside public spaces is where I start being conscious of potentially contaminated mouth breathers, with elevated risk as the population increases.