Wish there was a looney button to push for this one but dislike is best I could do even though it is way short of looney which fits.
Dave, you better start answering me, pretty soon I'll be the only voice you hear....so make friends with it.
I need 2 replys from you....(1) the whimper question, (2) 95 Huskers or, I'll give you an out here, Chesty Puller?
This past week saw 78,000 new cases and 800 deaths in one state while the other state had 5000 new cases and 100 deaths. If it's not apparent which state is faring better with it's strategies vs. Covid-19 then that is indeed pretty damned looney.
" Controlling COVID-19 without a vaccine: focus on 'core groups' Jeffrey Klausner Why did the COVID-19 epidemics mostly go away in China, northern Italy and the New York City area, but then ignite in other places around the world? One explanation is that the virus ran out of new people to infect in those early sites. In any community, there are those with active infection, those previously infected and immune from reinfection, those immune because of a prior, related coronavirus infection, and those susceptible. The basis of the concept of "herd immunity" is if enough people in a community are immune due to prior infection or vaccination, then the likelihood an infected person spreads the virus to a susceptible person is too low to maintain transmission. But how do we apply that understanding to China, Italy and New York, where the epidemic declined but nowhere near enough people got infected to reach the commonly accepted threshold of herd immunity? One possible answer is people do not interact at random, and thus the infection does not spread equally within the larger community. We have seen that in most of the COVID-19 epidemics, some places and population groups get infected at a much higher rate than others. Within those heavily impacted groups, there is much greater person-to-person contact or exposure than within the population overall. Once infection - and subsequent immunity - rates are high enough in those sub groups, there is a low chance of infecting someone, and the infection disappears. That non-random contact pattern is consistent with what epidemiologist call "core theory." Core theory has been around since the 1970s and was first used to explain how certain sexually transmitted infections could still circulate even when most people only have one or two sex partners. If person A has two partners and becomes infected by partner 1, and the STI is only 50% contagious, then person A has a 50% chance of passing the infection to partner 2. Over time, if this pattern is repeated, STI spread should slow and eventually burn out. That is not what we see, however, and STIs continue to cause problems and disease. That's because a small proportion of people, what is called a core group, have many more than one or two sex partners. In any given year, that core group may have five, or 10 or more partners, and they maintain the spread of STIs within a smaller group of people - who also have a larger number of sex partners. Occasionally, someone from the larger population interacts with someone from the core group and gets infected, but they rarely spread it to others. A core group is like a fire burning in the center of a building that heats the whole structure. If we can control or put out the fire, the entire building cools off. is much greater person-to-person contact or exposure than within the population overall. Once infection - and subsequent immunity - rates are high enough in those sub groups, there is a low chance of infecting someone, and the infection disappears. That non-random contact pattern is consistent with what epidemiologist call "core theory." Core theory has been around since the 1970s and was first used to explain how certain sexually transmitted infections could still circulate even when most people only have one or two sex partners. If person A has two partners and becomes infected by partner 1, and the STI is only 50% contagious, then person A has a 50% chance of passing the infection to partner 2. Over time, if this pattern is repeated, STI spread should slow and eventually burn out. That is not what we see, however, and STIs continue to cause problems and disease. That's because a small proportion of people, what is called a core group, have many more than one or two sex partners. In any given year, that core group may have five, or 10 or more partners, and they maintain the spread of STIs within a smaller group of people - who also have a larger number of sex partners. Occasionally, someone from the larger population interacts with someone from the core group and gets infected, but they rarely spread it to others. A core group is like a fire burning in the center of a building that heats the whole structure. If we can control or put out the fire, the entire building cools off. The same thing is happening with the spread of COVID-19. There are core groups of individuals who — because of their occupation or living situation — have much higher levels of close person- to-person contact than the general population. Examples might include factory workers inside poorly ventilated settings, people living in crowded households, and those incarcerated or living in long-termcare settings. The beauty of the theory is that once the groups who have high levels of close contact reach herd immunity, either through infection or vaccination, the virus' ability to maintain an epidemic in the larger population collapses, and the fire goes out. Which means the bottom line for us is that we do not need to achieve a population- level immunity of 60% to 70%. We only need to reach immunity or, better yet, epidemic control, within core groups to see the virus decline. The best evidence of how core theory may apply to the COVID-19 pandemic is the recent data from Corona, Queens, where 68% of people tested had antibodies to the virus, suggesting recent infection, or in certain towns in Italy where 50% to 60% of residents had evidence of recent infection. In both cases, the regional or country- level positivity in those areas is much lower: In New York City, it's 10% to 15%, and in Italy, it's 5%. But both regional epidemics declined because the core groups were no longer fueling further infection in the larger population. The implications of such an understanding of how the epidemic spreads and maintains are profound. What it tells us is that we must target our resources — public health communication, requirements for mask-wearing, regular screening for symptoms, testing for asymptomatic infection, paid sick leave policy, social distancing and hygiene — to core groups, like those living in crowded households or working in dense indoor settings, and to people who move between core groups and those most vulnerable, like adult day care workers or nursing home staff. We do not need to close all businesses, eateries, schools and beaches, but we do need to keep those most at risk protected by controlling the infection in core groups. We need to provide paid furloughs to those older than 65 years of age and keep them out of classrooms, and remind younger people to stay away from the elderly without masks or social distancing. And we must have better and more available data on exposures and populations, so we know exactly where to target interventions. It also means that when a vaccine becomes available core groups need to be at the front of the line. The better we use our understanding of how and where the virus is spread, the sooner we can bring the virus under control. Klausner is a professor of epidemiology at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and a professor in the division of infectious diseases and the program in global health at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA. This was written for The Washington Post.
The "Core Group" theory is palatable. But in certain places like crowded NYC you have to have citizens not in core groups also cooperating by following strict guidelines and NYC as densely crowded as it is could not have drastically reduced it's curve if it's general population refused to follow guidelines of masks and social distancing..... because of some cockeyed political beliefs that are so rampant here in the south. In the south those people are in and of themselves a "core group" whether it be a mass gathering of patrons at the bar or a large church congregation not wearing masks on a Sunday. Ultimately not providing those core groups a good example and misleading them about the virus and then politicizing good safe behavior is why Trump has failed miserably.... and is so far behind in the polls as the virus runs out of control in places like Florida and Texas. Another core group with a very difficult to control environment is going to be schools that open. It's going to be yet discovered at what age does Covid-19 transmit like adults transmit and how sick will they get. Since schools have been shut down the smaller kids have been pretty much on lock down and not mingling in their core group like they will begin to in August. Hopefully it will be a very manageable and safe situation because the rate of transmission of Covid in many states is not being controlled at present.
7 day average daily cases for Florida and Texas actually seems to be heading down the past couple days according to the NYT graphs. Fingers crossed. National average as well.
A miracle would be appreciated greatly Stu.... fingers crossed. On schools reopening: Trump inaccurately said during a briefing this week that children don't transmit the virus easily and don't bring it home easily, two claims that are still being investigated by the scientific community. (Researchers in a recent South Korea study found that children between 10 and 19 transmit the virus just as easily as adults). The jury is still out on what will happen when schools re-open. If it is a Florida-Arizona-Texas type reaction to reopening too early then it could be devastatingly tragic.
I realize that ignorance is Democratic, that keeping students from learning about American history and government ends up with them tearing down statues of Grant and abolitionists. The odds of a school age child dying from Covid are about the same as dying in a lightning strike and less that dying in an auto accident. Still it's a great way to keep our economy reeling and if it helps the Dems politically, then they'll ignore science. That study in Korea confirms that younger children do not spread the virus as I wrote a while back (Dave hadn't heard that. CNN doesn't tell things like that it's all gloom and doom.)
Well Gipper I don’t think it’s carved in stone either way how it’s going to go when schools reopen. Hopefully if there are issues our leaders will not allow things to get out of control as they have in southern states currently. Maybe the rate of new cases will drop significantly before then and that would be bound to help. If you personally are certain with proof that nothing’s going to happen then you should take your Dr. Gipper act to the Rose Garden pressers and reassure the nation. I do have one question Dr. Gipper.... at what age do kids no longer transmit Covid to their teachers and parents? Is it 10 years and 3 months? 9 years and 3 months? Just wondering what the cut off is. Maybe they cannot transmit it until the day they turn 21 and can drink in the bar?
re: not allowing kids to go to school. I wouldn't worry about it. In the Soviet Union the Communists forced everyone to leave home to go to work and forced all children to attend public schools. The result was that the Soviet Union eventually fell, because the children had been left in the care of the old Babushkas...the grandmothers. This was pointed out to me by one of my Poli Sci profs who had been America's naval attache [spy] to the Soviet Union. He predicted the collapse of the Communists and the power of the grandmothers 15 years before it happened. I mention this, because our local school isn't allowing my great-grandchildren to attend kindergarten. They're being issued computer tablets to study at home where they will be taught by their mother and me......heh...heh...heh...
As most of you know (you don't watch crap like CNN) here is a synopsis of what the LA teachers demanded to return to work. "Their demands include implementing a moratorium on private schools, defunding the police, increasing taxes on the wealthy, implementing Medicare for all, and passing the HEROES Act, which allocated and additional $116 billion in federal education funding to the states." Note there is nothing about safety for the children or teachers. It's pretty simple, if kids don't return to classes, homeowners shouldn't have to pay school taxes and teachers shouldn't get paid. I'm so tired of all these public employees who are sucking down folks taxes getting paid while the hard working taxpayers are being locked out of their employment.
Pretty incredible demands there Gipper..... and I believe it's true if some reports I have seen reporting it are accurate. That's just crazy stupid if it is true...... and unacceptable far left meddling.
Here are what are purported to be individuals that have been arrested by Fed. officers in Portland. They are Antifa members. The ones with the small x are school teachers.
Looks like Europe still having issues... Mandatory masks becoming the rule amid Europe's virus uptick