Week 12

Discussion in 'Sports Board' started by Terry O'Keefe, Nov 16, 2008.

  1. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    1. Not much that suprised anybody went on this weekend.

    2. Gators showed conclusively that they are the best team in the SEC East.
    no other team is even close. In fact this has to be the weakest year in
    memory for the SEC East. All we have to do now is to wait for
    the SEC Championship game to see if old school can beat new school!!

    3. B12 fans are just sitting around waiting for the Tech/OU game. I wonder
    if it will be a offensive blowout 52-48 or something like that, or will it be a
    "gasp" defensive battle. I'm thinking it'll be a pretty exciting offensive
    show maybe something like the Texas/OU game or the Texas/Tech
    game. I hear some talk that they feel OU's defense will shut down
    Tech somewhat and that the Tech defense will not be able to handle
    Sam Bradford and that OU will win big. Maybe something like 62-30.

    4. USC as one member said so aptly, seems to be a horse without a race
    this year. They are a team that has talent to equal the Gators, speed
    on both sides of the ball, scary players on defense. But for whatever
    the reason they haven't seemed to be able to put together that intensity
    that the Gators have had since the Ole Miss loss. Watching that
    Stanford game last night, it was like they were toying with them and
    finally decided to go ahead and snuff'em, but in the meantime by
    letting Stanford hang with them for a couple of quarters before beating them
    soundly they created some doubt. Reality is that their loss on the
    road to what turns out to be a very good Oregon State team is a better
    loss than the loss at home to Ole Miss. But the die is cast the voters
    just like the B12 teams better and they like the SEC winner as well.

    5. Heisman: Right now it's Harrell's to lose. If Tech wins out that will
    mean he's putting up numbers and he'll win. If Tech loses to OU he's in danger
    of Tebow closing him out, Tim is finishing fast. Not with the numbers to
    equal Harrell but in the voters minds. Sam Bradford could jump them
    both with a huge game vs Tech and a B12 Championship. I think Colt
    McCoy is out, he's continued to play very well but Harrell has caught the
    eye of the voters.

    6. Oregon State. Talk about a team that has done a 180 from their first
    couple of games. Their stars, Rodgers Bros, are a true frosh and a soph so it's
    not suprising that it took a few games to get these guys rolling. But they are
    really a lot of fun to watch play. If they have a rematch with Penn State
    in Rose Bowl, they will roll the Nits.

    7. ACC: That's a conference of equals, I can't see any dominant teams. They are
    all pretty good, but their isn't a great team. Maryland looked dead in the water early
    in the season and now they are in the hunt. I watched the Boston College/ FSU game
    and I'm struck by how mediocre FSU is compared to the old days. When was the last
    time they had a decent QB and RB? Andrews still has a good defense. But heck
    the mediocre Irish held Boston College offense better than the FSU defense.

    8. Big East: Also a conference of equals, Pitt and Cincy seem to have the edge right
    now but there isn't a team that excites anybody.

    9. Bowl matchups. As Kesley's topic pointed out this has the potential to be a
    disaster for the BCS bowls this year. With ho-hum matchups potentially in all the
    bowls.

    10. Big 10: It's been an odd year for them, with Michigan having their worst season
    ever it takes the steam out of the UM/OSU game for all except UM/OSU. I wonder
    if they will get 2 BCS teams this year? Ohio State will be eligible as an at-large and
    certainly always are attractive to bowls. But will they be chosen?


    Prediction: Texas Tech continues it's magical season and beats OU at Norman 45-42
     
  2. IrishCorey

    IrishCorey Well-Known Member

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    1 and 2. As awesome as Florida looked, Georgia and LSU looked very ordinary. I was surprised by that. The Gators look fantastic and are certainly riding a wave of momentum.. at the same time, it is hard to maintain that with the off-weeks that bowl season brings.

    -Agreed. It is sad that football has become ice dancing but... it is what it is.

    -He should have been closer last year. It's taken this kid 2 years to prove he's even worthy of consideration. His numbers last season were downright profane.

    -Oregon State is an interesting story.. one of those teams that the 'playoff debate' would seem to favor.. It looks like their last 2 clashes will be huge. This might be the biggest Civil War in some time.

    -FSU did have 5 suspended players, but you are right.. even when they are all there, they seem ordinary..at least more than they should be.

    -during our football debates at work (and there are many) we've come to the conclusion that the BCS needs to punish teams a full point in the BCS standings for scheduling playoff subdivision or DII teams. Not that it will eliminate the problems, but it will make things slightly more interesting.
     
  3. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    BCS Standings are out: No changes.

    If the selections were made today:

    Red = OUT can't be in BCS Bowl. Blue = Automatic Selection Green = At Large selection

    # Alabama
    # Texas Tech
    # Texas
    # Florida
    # Oklahoma
    # USC
    # Utah
    # Penn St.
    # Boise St.
    # Ohio St.
    # Georgia
    # Oklahoma St.
    # Missouri
    # BYU

    Ranked below the top 16 but getting automatic bids
    Cincy
    UNC
    Oregon State


    So we have

    Bama, Tech, Penn State, Cincy, Oregon State, UNC 6 automatic bids. + Utah as an automatic bid. 7 total

    3 at larges. Assuming highest ranking teams will get chosen.
    Fla, Texas, USC.

    Those are your 10 BCS teams as of right now.

    Rose Penn State vs Oregon State
    Fiesta Texas vs Utah
    Sugar Fla vs USC
    Orange Cincy vs UNC
    BCS game Bama vs Tech

    Maybe not so bad. Orange is screwed though.
     
  4. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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  5. RECcane

    RECcane Well-Known Member

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    1- Go Gators

    2- Come on Texas Tech beat them Sooners..

    3- I would love to see USC play the Gators on a neutral field, what a matchup..

    4- For the first time in 31 games Miami finally is ranked (#23 AP) and has the opportunity to play in the ACC championship game if they win their last two games (Georgia Tech & NC State)

    5- Do you think there was some celebrating going on in Troy Alabama around halftime. :p
     
  6. Sid

    Sid Well-Known Member

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    Cane,

    Miami looked very impressive vs. VaTech. You have good reason to be optimistic.
     
  7. Gator Bill

    Gator Bill Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Terry, thanks for the analysis and the possible BCS Bowl teams are very interesting. It can all change with the games to be played yet, Oklahoma and Texas Tech and the Big 12 and SEC Championships.

    Interesting that as of today if Oklahoma would beat Texas Tech but not jump Texas in the Coaches poll then Texas is in the Big 12 Championship game.

    How's this for a scenario, Florida beats Alabama, Oklahoma previously beats Texas Tech putting Texas or Oklahoma in the Championship game. Let's say Oklahoma. However Missouri upsets Oklahoma. Then there is the possibility of Florida playing Texas in the BCS game. With Texas not in the Big 12 Championship game.

    Things may yet get more interesting.

    USC may yet find a way to get back into the hunt.
     
  8. Gator Bill

    Gator Bill Well-Known Member Administrator

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    I think your solution overlooks some things, like sometimes those games are schedule because there is not much choice left to get a 12th game.

    But let's talk logistics, just what do you mean by deduct a full point? I believe that all the rankings are now in decimals with Alabama being at .979. Subtracting a point would leave them at a negative .021 which of course is not realistic.

    So how would you subtract the point?

    ReCane, thanks for your Go Gators. It now seems to me that Miami has a very good chance at winning the ACC which would put them in the BCS and probably be a God send for the Orange Bowl.

    Let's hope.
     
  9. IrishCorey

    IrishCorey Well-Known Member

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    Bill,

    Is not a loss a full point deduction?? I was almost certain that it was..

    Whatever a 'loss' is worth in the BCS, that is what scheduling a IAA team should be worth.

    There also needs to be a total elimination of 'BCS vs non-BCS' conferences. This travashamocracy we're living with now is the football equivalent of 'Back of the Bus' politics.

    I don't buy this 'there isn't anyone else to play' argument.. Not for one second.
     
  10. Gator Bill

    Gator Bill Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Corey, the BCS is now simply made up of the Coaches Poll and the Harris Interactive Poll and the average of the Computer Polls. Each making up 1/3 of the value. Though in reality the computer poll average can have more effect than their 1/3 because the gap between positions can be more than the voting polls where each team gets a percentage of the total vote.

    Apparently you are talking about a loss as if it was a real loss but that is no longer a factor other than how it affects the voting and the computer with SOS.

    I would still differ with you though because of the logistics of scheduling the 12th game and also what happens when a team pulls out like has happened in a number of cases.
     
  11. Gator Bill

    Gator Bill Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Corey, in a further thought, as far as I'm concerned they should get rid of the 12th game. It's more trouble than it's worth and hasn't brought us better matchups.
     
  12. IrishCorey

    IrishCorey Well-Known Member

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    Ahh yes, I should have been more clear.

    it would be a return to the 'quality win' type statistic that use to play a part in the BCS standings. A full point would obviously be too much... but say .100 would be just fine by us. In fact, that is exactly what we were referring to.

    For example, if a team has a BCS rating of .920 but they played a Div1AA team, they would have a .820 rating.

    I don't see how the 12th game has been a bad thing. In fact, there have been lots and lots of fun games added to the slate.. It's just that some teams decided to add one more patsy to the schedule.

    I find it funny that the college football world was turned upside down with the invention of the 'super conference' and the rest of the college football world was suppose to get in line...

    The Pac10 simply used the 12th game to give us a true champion in that conference. That also ensures that every member of your conference will have a better SOS because you are making sure they play a D1 team with that game... It's a win-win.

    Sadly, some teams have used the 12th game as a table skirt for their schedule while falling further behind the 'our conference is tough enough' mantra...

    Why not just penalize teams for playing 1-aa clubs? You aren't making it illegal. Teams that choose to do it out of concerns for budget won't care about the BCS deduction.

    I never thought I would see games decided on the field actually be considered 'a problem.'
     
  13. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    The computer polls already penalize a weak schedule, at least Sagarin does.
     
  14. Gator Bill

    Gator Bill Well-Known Member Administrator

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    I just can't agree Corey. Probably in principal I agree, however it is a mistake to look at just one game.

    For instance the Gators play Citadel this weekend and you would penalize us. However our out of conference schedule other than Citadel was Hawaii, Miami and FSU. While Miami and FSU are not what they once were, they are still good opponents and the Citadel game is the week before FSU.

    So a plan like yours doesn't take into consideration the rest of the schedule. While a noble idea it just isn't practical.

    A better plan would be to eliminate the 12th game which for most teams doesn't serve any purpose.
     
  15. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    I don't know that they PENALIZE a weak schedule but schdule strength is a variable factored into assessing weekly results and ranking teams. For example, Florida is ranked ahead of Texas in both human polls......yet they are ranked ahead of Texas in NONE of the 5 computer polls.

    That tells me that Texas is getting the benefit of the Big 12 schedule -v- SEC - this season and computers don't forget a bad loss ala Ole Miss at home as quickly as humans do.....we'll see what the Citadel does for them this week.
     
  16. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    FSU and Bama will right all the wrongs that the computer will assess for playing the Citadel.
     
  17. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    Terry,

    in response to your likely bowl matchups, the Fiesta will get to pick their second team before the Sugar, so I doubt they would select a Utah (or Boise St.) over a USC (assuming Oregon St. wins the PAC 10) or Ohio St. The Sugar would then be relegated to picking up the minor school automatic qualifier.
     
  18. gipper

    gipper Well-Known Member

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    Terry
    Agree that the Gators are the class of the SEC East. However, if Vandy beats Tenn. this week, and they have a very good chance, the 'Dores will have 5 SEC wins. :!:
    I still think that Texas is the best team in the B12 South. They were done in by a brutal cluster of tough games in their schedule. As I understand it, the BCS standings will determine who the representative from the South is if OU beats Tech. Guess OK may benefit from the "lose early" theory.
    I still think that McCoy has had a Heisman season. It could be that the winner will be determined by a dropped wounded duck by a frosh Texas DB.
     
  19. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Gip, no doubt McCoy has had a great year, and that loss hurt as did losing to Texas hurt Sam Bradford. If Harrell wins out he's a deserving Heisman winner should he win. This is really a horse race to the end, you can't lose or you're out.

    Terry
     
  20. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Here's what Kes is referring to.

    What this all means is that if the selections were today

    It would be

    NCG Bama vs Texas Tech
    Rose Bowl Oregon State vs Penn State That's easy.

    Next are the replacement selections.
    Sugar Bowl using first replacement selection gets UF, Then Fiesta bowl using 2nd replacement selection gets Texas.

    And finally using the Jan 2009 rotation for selecting at large teams:

    Fiesta Texas vs USC
    Sugar Fla vs Utah
    Orange Cincy vs Pitt

    Orange Bowl gets screwed, and public gets screwed by not being able to see a UF vs USC matchup. Two teams will silly talent and speed. Oh well!!