You're not alone in that regard Jiffy....hang in there, I expect a sell-off in the Asian markets overnight, a lower open and alot of pressure on equities in New York at the open in the morning. Stay diversified, take the opportunity to rebalance your portfolio as circumstances warrant and maintain your asset allocations consistent with your risk profile....nasty times to be sure, but this too will pass, imho. In time we'll look on this window as a fire sale on the stocks of quality companies. It may be years out, but the time horizon of your equity investments should be several years out at a minimum......as for me, I'm way long the S&P 500 and way short bonds. Often wrong, never in doubt! 8)
Are there really Treasury notes now with negative yields?? Why would anybody buy them? I saw this on another board that there are selling short term treasury notes with negative yields.
Technically no as in there are no Treasury obligations with negative coupon rates.......however, there were some trades today - in very short term Treasury obligations called "Bills" that were priced such that the buyer was willing to pay - in cash - more than he will receive when the issue matures in a few weeks! So in effect, the buyer is accepting a negative total return! :shock: This has only occurred before in very rare instances in extremely uncertain market conditions......the buyer is more concerned with safety and security than return, the bankers creditworthiness is at issue and his mattress isn't big enough...... very bizarre and trying times in the credit markets.
TOK, it's a whole new ballgame.....as it relates specifically to the short selling ban on financials, I have more than a few buddies that are downright angry.....and more than a few that are downright giddy! It all depends on the chair in which you're sitting. To the question do I believe it sound policy? Answer, "No", but I do understand their rationale.
T Buck! I gave you wrong info...Im not down 20%, I am down 38% form the highs exactly one year ago :!: I thought I would bail...but like everyone else..hangin on! You?
Below 10,000 now, there is only so much rebalencing, and shuffling of your portfolio ...nothing short of having gone to cash a year ago would have saved you. Oh for a time machine! :cry:
Ill tell you this much..if it ever comes back in my lifetime, im scooting 100% into cash :!: :evil: :evil:
.....I always tell myself it's not a loss until you sell it. imho, at these levels stocks of quality companies are significant bargains and would expect superior returns over a 5-10 year time horizon barring global armaggedon. I don't believe that the developed world's central bankers can or will allow such an apocalyptic event.....it's a possibility but imho a remotely improbable event. TOK, the reasons it is prudent to maintain a well diversified portfolio is among other things so that we have the resources to take advantage of this precise type of situation.....over the next 5 years, from where I sit, the S&P 500 will materially outperform any other asset class I can imagine, including cash, precious metals, bonds, cash and yes, the mattress. I'm selling fixed income assets here and buying the stocks of quality domestic companies.....I may well run out of ammo if we see the apocalypse, but I like my odds......keep hangin'.
BT, I like your outlook and attitude. Knee jerk reactionary moves are what causes these downturns. I am staying put and have started reinvesting.
Tom, in this 24/7, internet news and information society it seems as if the population is compelled into short-term, knee jerk, reactionary time frames.....I have always believed and adhered to the philosophy that if you are going to have a need for the funds in less than a 5 year time frame, they should be not be invested in stocks.....cash and other relatively less volatile and secure fixed income assets to be sure, but not stocks. From where we are today, the odds of the other asset classes outperforming the stocks of high quality companies over the next 5 years is extremely remote imho. So from my perspective, if you don't need the funds for the next five years, it would be foolish to sell.....
Feds to buy commercial paper, that seems to be very well recieved. I wonder if the market will ever be a free market again, or will it be a heavily regulated govt enterprise? It appears BT is now a columnist: I believe this advice is right out of his mantra!! 5 moves no doubt approved by BT
Good sound advice never goes out of style TOK....I fear that with the CNBC's of the world and internet, most amateur investors have a very destructive - for them - trading mentality and need to be remember the first rule of investing - buy low, sell high. Interestingly enough, one of the most reliable measures of market tops and/or bottoms is that point at which retail/amateur investors buy or sell......when they buy, it means we are at a top and unlikely to go higher (i.e., buy high) and when they sell it's a classic, age old signal to the pros to buy (i.e, sell low). These indicators are so widely followed that they are published daily as one of several of what is called "sentiment indicators". Retail investor sentiment is a classic "contrary indicator". When the retail investor is bullish - sell - when he's in a panic - buy. :shock: It is the most extraordinary time in the capital markets in my 30 year career.....I'm just glad I didn't take the Vandy job 8 years ago!
No way Jiffy....I stand by my earlier comments. For some morbid reason, I thought I would effort to inject a little humor into the proceedings. Trust me, today felt as if I had received an all day prostate exam from an angry tomahawk missile...in flight! Granted, we've not witnessed many of these in my professional career that spans 30 years or so....the most recent was 2002 during the burst of the internet bubble when the S&P 500 declined almost 50% peak to trough and prior to that 1974 when the S&P500 declined 46% from it's high. From where we sit today, the S&P500 has fallen 42% from the peak.....the thing that makes this particular sell-off unique is two things: 1) the speed of the sell-off , 2) the state of the credit markets. If you think the stock market is in a bad way, the state of the credit markets makes stocks look just peachy in comparison. The thing to keep in mind, is that after the sell-off of 74, the S&P was up 32% over the next 12 months and yield returns in excess 15% annually over the next 5 years. In 2002, from the bottom, the S&P was up 37% in the next 12 months and has - similar to 74 - generated annual returns in excess of 17% until the most recent peak in Oct 2007 - exactly one year ago today! (strange but true) Barring complete armaggedon in the credit markets, I expect this bounce to be equally spectacular.... as we look back in future years, we'll be talking about this one in the same reverent tones that we use today when discussing the bursting of the internet bubble - we'll just call this one the credit bubble......keep hangin'!
:wink: TERRY YOU AND jOCO THINK ALIKE..... HE WON'T LET ME TOUCH ANYTHING IN MY 401k NOW ,,, HE IS BARGAIN HUNTING ...NOW LIKE A KID IN A CANDY STORE AND EVERYTHING IS A PENNY ME ON THE OTHER HAND FEEL THAT i WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO RETIRE
My career in baking/finance spans about 42 years, and I'm inclined to agree with B-Terry. I've never paid much attention to the stock market, but I'm aware that if it is nothing else, it is elastic in both directions. Long-term, it grows along with everything else. For those who are old enough to remember, this is nothing compared to the travesty of 79-82 when prime rate reached 23%, government bonds reached 16%, municipal bonds were as high as 12.5%, and there was chaos and fatalism in the financial markets.......and that was before the internet! I'm calm (my wife can't understand why) and I'm trying to use common sense to assess the situation. Despite my ignorance of the technical aspects of the stock market, I believe that there is underlying strength which will provide a floor to this sell-off. Just don't ask me where I think it will bottom out. :roll: