Sagarin ratings

Discussion in 'Sports Board' started by WSU1996kesley, Nov 11, 2013.

  1. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    Code:
    <i>
    </i>     CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%
       1  SEC-WEST            &#40;A&#41; =  82.92      82.44  &#40;   1&#41;      7      82.59  &#40;  1&#41;
    1*    PAC-12                     82.07      81.17  &#40;1*  &#41;     12
       2  PAC-12&#40;NORTH&#41;       &#40;A&#41; =  81.98      81.29  &#40;   2&#41;      6      82.32  &#40;  2&#41;
       3  PAC-12&#40;SOUTH&#41;       &#40;A&#41; =  81.94      81.06  &#40;   3&#41;      6      81.89  &#40;  3&#41;
    2*    SEC                        80.66      80.32  &#40;2*  &#41;     14
       4  SEC-EAST            &#40;A&#41; =  78.50      78.21  &#40;   4&#41;      7      78.50  &#40;  4&#41;
       5  ACC-COASTAL         &#40;A&#41; =  75.90      75.33  &#40;   6&#41;      7      75.67  &#40;  5&#41;
    3* 6  BIG 12              &#40;A&#41; =  75.46      75.47  &#40;3* 5&#41;     10      75.31  &#40;  6&#41;
       7  BIG TEN-LEGENDS     &#40;A&#41; =  74.31      75.05  &#40;   7&#41;      6      74.92  &#40;  7&#41;
    4*    ACC                        74.13      74.96  &#40;4*  &#41;     14      
    5*    BIG TEN                    74.00      74.11  &#40;5*  &#41;     12
       8  BIG TEN-LEADERS     &#40;A&#41; =  73.43      73.17  &#40;   9&#41;      6      73.36  &#40;  8&#41;
       9  ACC-ATLANTIC        &#40;A&#41; =  72.48      74.59  &#40;   8&#41;      7      71.88  &#40;  9&#41;
    6*10  AMERICAN ATHLETIC   &#40;A&#41; =  65.19      65.98  &#40;6*10&#41;     10      65.13  &#40; 10&#41;
      11  MWC-MOUNTAIN        &#40;A&#41; =  63.02      63.62  &#40;  11&#41;      6      62.93  &#40; 11&#41;
    7*    MWC                        62.21      63.01  &#40;7* &#41;      12
      12  MWC-WEST            &#40;A&#41; =  61.85      62.39  &#40;  12&#41;      6      62.16  &#40; 12&#41;
      13  I-A INDEPENDENTS    &#40;A&#41; =  61.34      61.47  &#40;  13&#41;      6      61.48  &#40; 13&#41;
      14  CONFERENCE USA-WEST &#40;A&#41; =  60.42      59.95  &#40;  14&#41;      7      60.22  &#40; 15&#41;
      15  MAC-WEST            &#40;A&#41; =  60.40      59.62  &#40;  15&#41;      6      60.47  &#40; 14&#41;
    8*    CONFERENCE USA             60.05      58.94  &#40;8*  &#41;     14
      16  MISSOURI VALLEY     &#40;AA&#41;=  59.44      59.37  &#40;  16&#41;     10      59.05  &#40; 17&#41;
    9*    MAC                        59.21      58.60  &#40;9*  &#41;     13
      17  CONFERENCE USA-EAST &#40;A&#41; =  59.11      57.92  &#40;  18&#41;      7      59.83  &#40; 16&#41;
    T*18  SUN BELT            &#40;A&#41; =  58.98      58.41  &#40;T*17&#41;      8      58.83  &#40; 18&#41;
      19  MAC-EAST            &#40;A&#41; =  58.18      57.74  &#40;  19&#41;      7      58.42  &#40; 19&#41;
      20  COLONIAL            &#40;AA&#41;=  57.19      56.34  &#40;  20&#41;     11      57.18  &#40; 20&#41;
      21  SOUTHLAND           &#40;AA&#41;=  53.79      54.27  &#40;  21&#41;      8      53.96  &#40; 21&#41;
      22  OHIO VALLEY         &#40;AA&#41;=  52.46      51.88  &#40;  22&#41;      9      52.30  &#40; 22&#41;
      23  IVY LEAGUE          &#40;AA&#41;=  50.50      48.76  &#40;  24&#41;      8      50.72  &#40; 23&#41;
      24  BIG SKY             &#40;AA&#41;=  49.13      49.22  &#40;  23&#41;     13      49.14  &#40; 24&#41;
      25  SOUTHERN            &#40;AA&#41;=  47.39      47.02  &#40;  26&#41;      9      47.16  &#40; 26&#41;
      26  BIG SOUTH           &#40;AA&#41;=  47.31      47.57  &#40;  25&#41;      6      47.39  &#40; 25&#41;
      27  PATRIOT             &#40;AA&#41;=  45.58      44.95  &#40;  27&#41;      7      45.62  &#40; 27&#41;
      28  I-AA INDEPENDENTS   &#40;AA&#41;=  41.97      41.47  &#40;  29&#41;      6      42.08  &#40; 28&#41;
      29  NORTHEAST           &#40;AA&#41;=  40.78      40.44  &#40;  30&#41;      7      40.66  &#40; 30&#41;
      30  MID-EASTERN         &#40;AA&#41;=  40.72      41.60  &#40;  28&#41;     11      41.07  &#40; 29&#41;
      31  SWAC-EAST           &#40;AA&#41;=  38.30      37.60  &#40;  31&#41;      5      37.90  &#40; 31&#41;
      32  SWAC-WEST           &#40;AA&#41;=  31.65      31.74  &#40;  32&#41;      5      31.77  &#40; 32&#41;
      33  PIONEER             &#40;AA&#41;=  28.65      27.76  &#40;  33&#41;     12      29.06  &#40; 33&#41;
    
    Sagarin titles his table CONFERENCE, although he actually ranks them by DIVISIONS now. Into his table, I've inserted the aggragate conference information.

    The SEC West is ranked as the best division (P12N and P12S follow at #2 and #3) but the P12 as of Saturday is now ranked ahead of the SEC. The average SOS rankings for each are as follows (lower represents a harder schedule):

    #1: P12 - 18.33
    #2: SEC - 21.29
    #3: B12 - 44.70
    #4: ACC - 51.50
    #5: B10 - 57.92
    #6: AAC - 84.70
    #7: MWC - 92.17
    #8: CUSA- 96.29
    #9: MAC - 96.85
    #T: SUN -118.75
     
  2. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) ranks the conferences thusly:

    #1 - P12
    #2 - SEC
    #3 - ACC
    #4 - B10
    #5 - B12
    #6 - AAC
    #7 - MWC
    #8 - CUSA
    #9 - Sun
    #T - MAC
    Article is here.

    Team rankings are here.
     
  3. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    B12 is down this year, but still ranked pretty high, esp considering how down Texas and OU are this year.
     
  4. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    I agree with those rankings.... except that conferences 6 thru 10 should probably be 1 thru 4 based soley on their BCS bowl winning percentages
    :wink: 8)
     
  5. George Krebs

    George Krebs Well-Known Member

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    I was never good in calculus.
     
  6. HUSKERMAN-HUSKERFAN

    HUSKERMAN-HUSKERFAN Well-Known Member

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    They have vitamins for that George.
     
  7. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    Championship Drive Ratings

    Utah is 4-5 against the toughest schedule in the nation, ranking #31. They would be the the second-toughest team to-date on Baylor's and OSU's schedule, only trailing OU (#30) and Wisconsin (#7) on their relative schedules. Utah would be the third-toughest team to-date on FSU's schedule with Clemson (#11) and Miami (#27). Utah is the fourth-toughest team Stanford has played to-date, with ASU (#6), UCLA (#9), and Oregon (#10). Utah would be the fifth-toughest team to-date on Alabama's schedule with VT (#15), LSU (#20), A&M (#22), and Ole Miss (#23).

    Utah, by their record, is a bad loss, and is being hailed as the albatross around Stanford's neck. Stanford has gone 3-0 against top 10 opponents. Of those teams left in the race for the championship (Alabama, FSU, Baylor, OSU) only OSU has even played a top ten team (Wisconsin). Alabama and FSU are 4-0 against the top 50. Baylor and OSU are 2-0. Stanford is 5-1. By comparison, Alabama, FSU, and Baylor 4-0 against teams ranked 75 or worse and OSU 3-0. Stanford has only played two teams ranked that low.
     
  8. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    I never bought that Utah was a bad loss, losing to New Mexico would be a bad loss, losing to Navy would be a bad loss. But they always say it's better to lose early rather than late as you have time to recover. Stanford has USC which is playing very well except for the ND game, Cal is awful, and ND could give Stanford some trouble as well. Then of course there is the Pac12 Championship game. So if they win out they will have played a very difficult schedule and I would pick them over unbeaten Baylor or unbeaten Ohio State, maybe not FSU though.
     
  9. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    Utah isn't a bad loss, but it's not a "good" loss, either. I'm torn as to whether I would take a one-loss Stanford over an unbeaten Baylor or OSU, even considering their respective schedules. I'm not even convinced Stanford would give Bama a better game than FSU, or FSU a better game than Bama. IF Stanford played that game like they did against Oregon, then yeah. But if Stanford played like they did against Utah or UW, then that would be a disaster.

    I'll continue to withhold final judgment until the end of the year, because my opinion will carry MUCH more weight with the BCS calcs at that time. ;)
     
  10. IrishCorey

    IrishCorey Well-Known Member

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    This whole thing could go right down the shitter in one weekend... but it's fun to speculate.
     
  11. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    If I understand all of Kesley's analysis, we should put Utah vs Boise State in the National Championship game. Right? :wink:
     
  12. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    I present this data with no analysis. I'm just happy my conference is getting some love from the network that has been one of the biggest supports of the SEC. As Corey points out, this is a snapshot and subject to change in a heartbeat, but it's the first conference recognition I can remember getting from them in ten years.
     
  13. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    Come on Kes, that sounds an awful lot like analysis to me? I'm not sure what it means, but I think you do. :?:
     
  14. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    I see your point. I presented the data for discussion with no analysis. You're right, in response to T I did provide my opinion.
     
  15. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    Last week the P12 maintained their rating, with Divisions maintaining their rating order. This week, Sagarin's computer loved the fact that the P12 feasted upon themselves, propelling both divisions above the SEC West:
    Code:
         CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%
    
       1  PAC-12&#40;SOUTH&#41;       &#40;A&#41; =  83.13      82.10  &#40;  1&#41;      6      82.97  &#40;  1&#41;
       2  PAC-12&#40;NORTH&#41;       &#40;A&#41; =  82.52      81.31  &#40;  3&#41;      6      82.84  &#40;  2&#41;
       3  SEC-WEST            &#40;A&#41; =  82.28      81.95  &#40;  2&#41;      7      82.19  &#40;  3&#41;
       4  SEC-EAST            &#40;A&#41; =  77.65      77.38  &#40;  4&#41;      7      77.66  &#40;  4&#41;
       5  BIG 12              &#40;A&#41; =  75.99      75.86  &#40;  6&#41;     10      75.91  &#40;  6&#41;
       6  BIG TEN-LEGENDS     &#40;A&#41; =  75.63      76.15  &#40;  5&#41;      6      75.94  &#40;  5&#41;
       7  ACC-COASTAL         &#40;A&#41; =  75.51      74.68  &#40;  8&#41;      7      75.04  &#40;  7&#41;
       8  BIG TEN-LEADERS     &#40;A&#41; =  74.24      74.43  &#40;  9&#41;      6      73.85  &#40;  8&#41;
       9  ACC-ATLANTIC        &#40;A&#41; =  72.88      75.08  &#40;  7&#41;      7      72.21  &#40;  9&#41;
      10  AMERICAN ATHLETIC   &#40;A&#41; =  65.22      65.61  &#40; 10&#41;     10      65.35  &#40; 10&#41;
      11  MWC-WEST            &#40;A&#41; =  62.93      63.32  &#40; 11&#41;      6      63.14  &#40; 11&#41;
      12  MWC-MOUNTAIN        &#40;A&#41; =  62.03      62.69  &#40; 12&#41;      6      61.99  &#40; 12&#41;
      13  I-A INDEPENDENTS    &#40;A&#41; =  61.57      61.44  &#40; 13&#41;      6      61.71  &#40; 13&#41;
      14  CONFERENCE USA-WEST &#40;A&#41; =  60.53      59.36  &#40; 16&#41;      7      60.05  &#40; 15&#41;
      15  MAC-WEST            &#40;A&#41; =  60.36      59.79  &#40; 14&#41;      6      60.65  &#40; 14&#41;
      16  MISSOURI VALLEY     &#40;AA&#41;=  59.80      59.67  &#40; 15&#41;     10      59.47  &#40; 17&#41;
      17  CONFERENCE USA-EAST &#40;A&#41; =  58.33      56.96  &#40; 18&#41;      7      59.54  &#40; 16&#41;
      18  SUN BELT            &#40;A&#41; =  57.93      57.52  &#40; 17&#41;      8      57.74  &#40; 18&#41;
      19  MAC-EAST            &#40;A&#41; =  57.30      56.95  &#40; 19&#41;      7      57.30  &#40; 19&#41;
      20  COLONIAL            &#40;AA&#41;=  56.96      55.80  &#40; 20&#41;     11      56.89  &#40; 20&#41;
      21  SOUTHLAND           &#40;AA&#41;=  53.18      53.58  &#40; 21&#41;      8      53.32  &#40; 21&#41;
      22  OHIO VALLEY         &#40;AA&#41;=  51.66      51.33  &#40; 22&#41;      9      51.37  &#40; 22&#41;
      23  IVY LEAGUE          &#40;AA&#41;=  50.07      48.42  &#40; 24&#41;      8      50.44  &#40; 23&#41;
      24  BIG SKY             &#40;AA&#41;=  48.93      48.83  &#40; 23&#41;     13      48.96  &#40; 24&#41;
      25  SOUTHERN            &#40;AA&#41;=  48.56      48.08  &#40; 25&#41;      9      48.28  &#40; 25&#41;
      26  BIG SOUTH           &#40;AA&#41;=  46.64      46.88  &#40; 26&#41;      6      46.63  &#40; 26&#41;
      27  PATRIOT             &#40;AA&#41;=  45.48      45.18  &#40; 27&#41;      7      45.40  &#40; 27&#41;
      28  I-AA INDEPENDENTS   &#40;AA&#41;=  41.91      41.25  &#40; 29&#41;      6      42.15  &#40; 28&#41;
      29  NORTHEAST           &#40;AA&#41;=  40.61      40.65  &#40; 30&#41;      7      40.55  &#40; 30&#41;
      30  MID-EASTERN         &#40;AA&#41;=  40.39      41.27  &#40; 28&#41;     11      40.66  &#40; 29&#41;
      31  SWAC-EAST           &#40;AA&#41;=  35.08      34.04  &#40; 31&#41;      5      34.45  &#40; 31&#41;
      32  PIONEER             &#40;AA&#41;=  28.22      27.40  &#40; 33&#41;     12      28.67  &#40; 32&#41;
      33  SWAC-WEST           &#40;AA&#41;=  27.45      27.56  &#40; 32&#41;      5      27.54  &#40; 33&#41;
     
  16. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    This would be correct... as further subtantiated by Corey.... :lol:

    Damn the SEC East is a drag on the whole conference.....
     
  17. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    Code:
    <i>
    </i>     CONFERENCE          CENTRAL MEAN    SIMPLE AVERAGE  TEAMS      WIN50%
    1*    PAC-12                     82.45      81.20  &#40;1*  &#41;    12
       1  SEC-WEST            &#40;A&#41; =  82.42      82.04  &#40;  1&#41;      7      82.35  &#40;  2&#41;
       2  PAC-12&#40;SOUTH&#41;       &#40;A&#41; =  82.40      81.71  &#40;  2&#41;      6      82.35  &#40;  3&#41;
       3  PAC-12&#40;NORTH&#41;       &#40;A&#41; =  82.08      80.69  &#40;  3&#41;      6      82.36  &#40;  1&#41;
    2*    SEC                        80.17      79.68  &#40;2*  &#41;    14
       4  SEC-EAST            &#40;A&#41; =  77.53      77.33  &#40;  5&#41;      7      77.66  &#40;  4&#41;
       5  BIG TEN-LEGENDS     &#40;A&#41; =  76.87      77.39  &#40;  4&#41;      6      77.20  &#40;  5&#41;
    3*    BIG TEN                    75.90      75.83  &#40;3*  &#41;    12
       7  ACC-COASTAL         &#40;A&#41; =  75.51      74.51  &#40;  8&#41;      7      74.88  &#40;  7&#41;
    4* 6  BIG 12              &#40;A&#41; =  75.46      75.47  &#40;4* 6&#41;    10      75.83  &#40;  6&#41;
       8  BIG TEN-LEADERS     &#40;A&#41; =  74.54      74.26  &#40;  9&#41;      6      74.54  &#40;  8&#41;
    5*    ACC                        74.10      74.92  &#40;5*  &#41;    14      
       9  ACC-ATLANTIC        &#40;A&#41; =  73.27      75.33  &#40;  7&#41;      7      72.61  &#40;  9&#41;
    6*10  AMERICAN ATHLETIC   &#40;A&#41; =  64.94      65.87  &#40;6*10&#41;    10      65.32  &#40; 10&#41;
      11  MWC-WEST            &#40;A&#41; =  63.25      63.34  &#40; 11&#41;      6      63.30  &#40; 11&#41;
    7*    MWC                        62.71      62.85  &#40;7* &#41;     12
      12  MWC-MOUNTAIN        &#40;A&#41; =  61.83      62.37  &#40; 12&#41;      6      61.80  &#40; 12&#41;
      13  I-A INDEPENDENTS    &#40;A&#41; =  61.47      61.28  &#40; 13&#41;      6      61.63  &#40; 13&#41;
      14  CONFERENCE USA-WEST &#40;A&#41; =  60.68      59.61  &#40; 16&#41;      7      60.28  &#40; 15&#41;
      15  MAC-WEST            &#40;A&#41; =  60.44      59.80  &#40; 15&#41;      6      60.86  &#40; 14&#41;
      16  MISSOURI VALLEY     &#40;AA&#41;=  60.25      60.13  &#40; 14&#41;     10      59.97  &#40; 16&#41;
    8*    CONFERENCE USA             59.73      58.49  &#40;9*  &#41;    14
    9*    MAC                        58.95      58.51  &#40;7*  &#41;    13
      17  CONFERENCE USA-EAST &#40;A&#41; =  58.41      57.37  &#40; 19&#41;      7      58.77  &#40; 17&#41;
    T*18  SUN BELT            &#40;A&#41; =  58.35      57.65  &#40;T*17&#41;     8      58.01  &#40; 19&#41;
      19  MAC-EAST            &#40;A&#41; =  57.87      57.41  &#40; 18&#41;      7      58.06  &#40; 18&#41;
      20  COLONIAL            &#40;AA&#41;=  57.02      55.77  &#40; 20&#41;     11      56.91  &#40; 20&#41;
      21  SOUTHLAND           &#40;AA&#41;=  53.37      53.73  &#40; 21&#41;      8      53.49  &#40; 21&#41;
      22  OHIO VALLEY         &#40;AA&#41;=  53.02      52.70  &#40; 22&#41;      9      52.85  &#40; 22&#41;
      23  IVY LEAGUE          &#40;AA&#41;=  48.76      47.03  &#40; 26&#41;      8      49.13  &#40; 23&#41;
      24  SOUTHERN            &#40;AA&#41;=  48.31      47.76  &#40; 23&#41;      9      47.97  &#40; 24&#41;
      25  BIG SKY             &#40;AA&#41;=  47.25      47.20  &#40; 24&#41;     13      47.28  &#40; 25&#41;
      26  BIG SOUTH           &#40;AA&#41;=  46.88      47.20  &#40; 25&#41;      6      46.92  &#40; 26&#41;
      27  PATRIOT             &#40;AA&#41;=  44.34      44.08  &#40; 27&#41;      7      44.23  &#40; 27&#41;
      28  I-AA INDEPENDENTS   &#40;AA&#41;=  41.72      41.16  &#40; 28&#41;      6      41.99  &#40; 28&#41;
      29  NORTHEAST           &#40;AA&#41;=  39.91      39.94  &#40; 29&#41;      7      39.86  &#40; 29&#41;
      30  MID-EASTERN         &#40;AA&#41;=  39.06      39.74  &#40; 30&#41;     11      39.36  &#40; 30&#41;
      31  SWAC-EAST           &#40;AA&#41;=  35.27      34.19  &#40; 31&#41;      5      34.63  &#40; 31&#41;
      32  SWAC-WEST           &#40;AA&#41;=  27.53      27.63  &#40; 32&#41;      5      27.61  &#40; 32&#41;
      33  PIONEER             &#40;AA&#41;=  26.47      25.58  &#40; 33&#41;     12      26.97  &#40; 33&#41;
    
    Again, Sagarin titles his table CONFERENCE, although he actually ranks them by DIVISIONS. Into his table, I've inserted the aggragate conference information.

    The SEC West again took over the #1 spot, by 0.02 over the P12 South and 0.34 over the P12 North. As a conference, the P12 retains their #1 ranking by 2.28. The average SOS rankings for each are as follows (lower represents a harder schedule):
    Code:
    <i>
    </i>#1&#58; P12 -   9.25
    #2&#58; SEC -  24.43
    #3&#58; B10 -  41.25
    #4&#58; B12 -  43.10
    #5&#58; ACC -  49.21
    #6&#58; AAC -  86.10
    #7&#58; MWC -  90.92
    #8&#58; MAC - 100.62
    #9&#58; CUSA- 102.79
    #T&#58; SUN - 121.13
    
     
  18. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Can't believe the B12 is ranked below the B10. Other than Ohio State I think we have better teams top to bottom.
     
  19. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    Conference rankings per the AP:

    1 - SEC
    2 - B12
    3 - P12
    4 - B10
    5 - ACC
    6 - AAC
    7 - MAC
    8 - MWC
    9 - CUSA
    T - SUN
     
  20. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    Conference rankings per EsPN, Football Power Index:

    1 - P12
    2 - SEC
    3 - ACC
    4 - B10
    5 - B12
    6 - AAC
    7 - MWC
    8 - CUSA
    9 - SUN
    T - MAC