At least that's what the media keeps saying about Bama-Florida. I like this stat I read....a lot... "Alabama is 10th in punting and seventh in the league in kickoff coverage with only two touchbacks." ...Brandon.....you paying attention? :wink:
I think the Florida defense has more than handled all of the star runners it has faced this season especially in the past 8 games. The key is not the runners as much as it is the Alabama offensive line. How big and frequent the holes they open is the key. I think UF has the speed on defense to quickly close on runners who get an opening. I also think that Wilson will be picked off more than any game this season. UF is something like 2nd in the nation in interceptions. From CFN: "Florida will win if... the athleticism of the Florida defensive front gives the Alabama offensive line problems. The Tide front five had penalty issues with false starts and holding calls against two of the better defensive lines it faced this year: Kentucky’s (when it was healthy) and Mississippi’s. The Ole Miss defensive front held Alabama to just 107 rushing yards, and while the Tide ran all over the Wildcats, Myron Pryor, Jeremy Jarmon, and the rest of the front four won their share of battles. It’s no coincidence that Alabama had two of its toughest games against the Wildcats and Rebels, and it had one of its other nasty games, the overtime win over LSU, when it had to face another athletic, talented run defense."
Easily? No. But, UF has a chance to play well against the Alabama run offense. Here are the top rushing teams in the SEC: Code: Name Gm Carries Net Avg Tds YdsGm Florida 12 459 2845 6.2 40 237.08 Alabama 12 502 2418 4.82 30 201.50 Ol'Miss 12 475 2201 4.63 19 183.42 LSU 12 460 2007 4.36 23 167.25 Georgia 12 393 1847 4.7 21 153.92 UF and Alabama faced all of the top run offenses, ranked after themselves, of course. Here's how Alabama did: Code: Team Carries Net Avg vs ypa vs ypg Miss 34 158 4.65 0.02 (25.42) LSU 46 201 4.37 0.01 33.75 UGa 16 50 3.13 (1.58) (103.92) Ttl 96 409 4.26 (0.30) (31.86) Here's how UF did: Code: Team Carries Net Avg vs ypa vs ypg Miss 38 140 3.68 (0.95) (43.42) LSU 26 80 3.08 (1.28) (87.25) UGa 29 106 3.66 (1.04) (47.92) Ttl 93 326 3.51 (1.05) (59.53) So on average, UF actually did better against those teams than UA, and thus at least has a chance but I think it's going to be a very tough game. I think it will be a game won/lost on who gets the "fastest start" and then turn overs. If UA can score first and play keep away from the UF offense, they'll (most likely) win. If UF gets a lead and forces UA to play "cath up" via the pass, UF (most likely) wins. If either team gets a turnover and/or big special teams play early on - see Javier Arenas and Brandon James - that will be a big advantage. One interesting note - UF slightly trails Arky in gross and net punting in the SEC, with only 43 yards in 39 punts (7 touchbacks). Alabama has allowed 215 return yards on 53 punts (4 touchbacks).
I hadn't thought about special teams, that could be huge. Plus the John Parker Wilson factor also weighs in against Bama. I think I'll take the Gators and lay the 10.
Run offense by player: Code: Name Atts Yds ypa TD Rainey 82 654 7.98 4 Harvin 61 538 8.82 9 Demps 55 529 9.62 6 Tebow 137 507 3.70 12 Moody 53 394 7.43 1 Moore 29 142 4.90 4 Total 417 2764 6.63 36 Coffee 199 1235 6.21 9 Ingram 127 681 5.36 11 Upchurch 58 350 6.03 4 Grant 38 88 2.32 1 Wilson 57 23 0.40 5 Total 479 2377 4.96 30
Oh lawwwd, I sho have no idea how dem poor countrah boys from al-uh-bama will evah compete for dis game. I reckin dey just sho up'n hope fo da best. y'all be gentle now. its binna while since bama folks been round deez here pahts.
Well when you just look at the stats you have to conclude that 'Bama is the underdog. Of course Ohio State was the underdog to juggernaut (truly) Miami in the 2002 BCS game. That's why we play the game. It would seem to me though, that if Bama is to win that the game has to be low scoring with the Bama defense stuffing Tim Tebow, and sacking Tim Tebow. They have to whip the Fla OL. If they don't and it's a scoring contest then UF has far more weapons.
I'm going on the fact that the Florida team will be just as confident as their fans and will still be suffering the affects of the pre-game victory party. Bama wins in a squeaker. I just made my final edits to my picks.
Florida fans are just going off of stats, comparable games, and recent history, we are not over confident at all. And no way celebrating a pre-game victory. Good thing you already have that contest win secured. :wink:
LOL .... some folks are being just a bit too subjective and are reading FAR TOO MUCH in what's been written. What's new? It should be a close, tough game between two good teams. Having said that, if one of the teams makes a few mistakes, the final spread could grow to several major scores.
Makes it easier to pick the underdog! 8) Everybody knows who I mean by Gator fans and it does not include you, RoGator, GatorDoc, Treefrog, or Bill. :wink:
I know ... and that's why I had to throw in my over-confidence as well. Gotta go ... Gator Shops are having a pre-game sale on SEC Champs merchandise through today only. Better stock up for Christmas gifts!
Okay, I misunderstood. I really hope UF wins but have no idea how this game will play out; not nearly as confident as wzt!! Another but of tid .... W/L records of the 5 FBS opponent not common to Alabama and UF: Code: Team Won Loss Team Won Loss clem 7 5 haw 7 5 tul 2 10 mia 7 5 arkst 6 5 fsu 8 4 msu 4 8 vand 6 6 aub 5 7 usce 7 5 total 24 35 total 35 25
Damn AJ....and I already purchased my internet only prepaid hotel room and non-refundable ticket to Miami..... 8)