Some didn't pan out that's for sure, but if I had my druthers I'd still rather have a bunch of 5* players. There were also some mega stars in that group. Terry
I agree that for every Willie Williams there is an Adrian Peterson. I'll take 5 stars any day as long as they aren't miscreants from the Miami hood.
Terry and MCG, I believe it has pretty well proven out that in the long run the higher star players have a higher rate of success. Not completely as can be seen from that list, but over all yes.
I think that would be interesting to see Bill.....clearly, any individual year can be off by miles with a meaningful standard deviation. In this sample for instance, the kids have a less than 1 chance in 3 of meeting their expectations and indeed are more likely to perform at a level of 3* or below than 4* and above. As a result, I give little credence to these services.....if Coach Tressel tells me that can contribute, I'll believe him vastly more than any of these recruting wonks.
I'm sure that Charlie Weis will be glad to take all the Ohio 5*'s so they won't fall in the Stripehead hands!! That way JT can focus on what he does best develope 3* kids into AA's!!
I have read somewhere about the relationship of higher ranking to performance but don't have a link. However I agree completely with your statement about trusting the coach to make the final judgement. Case in point is our kick returner Brandan James was a 2 ** and he has made major contributions to our team. So I'm with you but still believe if you have an overall higher star ranking you have a better chance of them producing.
I'm not sure ALL the 5* would be the right transaction.....however, I would let him swap any of our 5*'s of JT's choosing for any of ND 4* or lower rated players again of JT s choosing.... and similarly, I would swap any of our 4*'s of JT's choosing for any of ND's 3* or lower again of JT's choosing....the bet here is obviously that JT's or any decent coach's evaluation of talent is vastly superior to the recruiting wonks....
Therein lies the point to be made....JT knew they were future AA's all along - it was the recruiting rags who missed the call and tagged them as 3*'s! Interesting enough, the average result of the designated 5*'s in the 04 class was a 3* playing career! To Bill's point, I have no doubt that a program that consistently produces highly rated classes over time will have superior playing talent on the field when compared to a program that has not produced consistently highly rated classes - that said, as the linked analysis evidences, judging any given class in any given year by the number of *'s given it by the rags is little better than a crap shoot and may bear no resemblance to a quality squad on the field.