CRASHEROOOO!

Discussion in 'The Back Room' started by jif5, Jul 26, 2007.

  1. jif5

    jif5 Well-Known Member

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    looks like this is the BIG ONE we have been hearing about
     
  2. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    Jiffy, Jiffy, Jiffy.....you go from euphoric "all in" plays to the sky is falling in an instant. Hell, we're still up 1000 points on the Dow for '07! A good pullback is healthy every once in awhile!

    Diversify, diversify, diversify.....!
     
  3. jif5

    jif5 Well-Known Member

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    whenever this happens...I always swear the next time it peaks out..I will go 100% into 5.5% cash! Some reason I get greedy and never do it! jif
     
  4. jif5

    jif5 Well-Known Member

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    411 points down...TBUCK..this doesnt worry u? LOL!
     
  5. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    diversifly, diversify, diversify - maintain target allocations between asset classes dependent on your risk tolerance and rebalance when they get out of whack.....logic dictates that you'll be selling stocks when they are high and buying them when they are low....not a bad strategy, imho.

    No Jiffy, no worries.....valuations are not out of line and the economy has been on firm footing and there is alot of liquidity putting a bid under the market. Barring a catastrophic melt down in the credit markets - which I don't see - I see this as a simple and healthy repricing and would not be surprised to see another 400 or 500 points on the downside.
     
  6. jif5

    jif5 Well-Known Member

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    BuckT...you might be right about another 500 points down..futures getting slammed this morning!
     
  7. jif5

    jif5 Well-Known Member

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    10,000 here we come!
     
  8. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    Is the sky falling Jiffy? :roll:

    [​IMG]
     
  9. jif5

    jif5 Well-Known Member

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    its in the process
     
  10. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    Hang in there Jiffy.....consumer confidence is at its highest level since 9/11 and hell, even General Motors is making money. How bad can it be? :wink:
     
  11. JO'Co

    JO'Co Well-Known Member

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    Zee bull is still running. Don't get in thee way...

    [​IMG]
     
  12. jif5

    jif5 Well-Known Member

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    no no no! check out this mornings FUTURES!!!!
     
  13. Bobdawolverweasel

    Bobdawolverweasel Well-Known Member

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    Count me in as a member of Jif's "Chicken Little Brigade."

    [​IMG]
     
  14. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    Et tu Bobda?

    Lots of folks greatly concerned about the shake out in the credit markets....many have already fallen on their swords and have been taken out with the trash. If the credit meltdown reaches the depths that some pundits are speculating, there is alot more downside. No doubt the bad lenders are paying their dues as are the investors chasing yield in lieu of common sense. I don't see armageddon but a therapeutic shake-out and just another normal, healthy pullback.
     
  15. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    BuckeyeT isn't this why you have to take a long view rather than try to time the markets ups and downs.
     
  16. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Is there a correlation between p/e ratios and what the market is at or should be at?
     
  17. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    yes.....and yes.

    All else equal, high p/e ratios relative to interest rates would be indicative of a market that is perhaps overcooked but certainly priced at a premium with future return expectations below norm and the probability of a pull-back above norm. It is a market that would be characterized as "highly-valued" or high valuations. The reverse being true also....

    This is one of several solid indicators - at least to me and those of my ilk - that this pullback is just a healthy correction and not armageddon. Point being, the fundamental basis of market values are still quite reasonable. The economy is on solid footing, both domestically and world-wide. Valuations - that is p/e's - are not out of line with historical norms, corporate balance sheets are solid, and the good ole American consumer continues to buy things.....if the market were sell off below fundamental values, there is alot of money that would put to work scooping up the undervalued assets.

    The most severe of "crasheroos" have always had extreme valuations as a prerequisite.....without a complete meltdown in the credit markets, I can't see it....remember the old adage - the best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets! :twisted:
     
  18. jif5

    jif5 Well-Known Member

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    Buck...buying when BLOOD IN THE STREET can make a BLOODY MESS..no? jif
     
  19. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    :lol: Right you are Jiffy....the best thing to remember in this business is that there are no guarantees. I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again.....perhaps I am wrong about this one, but I don't think so.

    Diversify, diversify, diversify.....
     
  20. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    Jiffy, you still alive? Blood is running, there is money to be made but not for the faint of heart.....credit markets ugly.

    Jiffy, you out there? Come to the light! :wink: