Consensus rankings

Here is a link to a site that tracks such things.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/preseason_comparison.html

This is of course preseason rankings.

I am listing below what I think will happen wrt to the top 5 final regular season poll:

1. USC: beats OSU....loses one Pac 10 game...plays UF for the NC
2. Florida....prevails over Georgia....loses one game in the SEC
3. OSU.....loses only to USC and shut out of the NC game
4. W Va.....loses once....plays Clemson in the Orange Bowl
5. Georgia....tough sched = two losses...Sugar Bowl

Others of note:

Michigan surprises at third in the Big Ten - Outback Bowl vs. LSU
Notre Dame....7-4 Gator Bowl....vs. BC or possibly Miami
Auburn...3 losses inc. UF in SEC title game.....Cap One vs. Wisconsin
Tenn......3 losses...Cotton Bowl vs. Nebraska
Bama.....4 losses....Peach Bowl vs. Florida State
Texas.....3 losses.....Holiday Bowl
OU...2 losses...Big 12 champ....Fiesta
AzSt...Rose Bowl vs. OSU

 

has anyone even won (or lost) a coin toss yet?

 

No, but rumor has it that unless tOSU wins every coin toss this year they will be shut out of the NC game.

 

Since the Irish have 12 games scheduled, I guess that 7-4 is also a prediction that some catastrophe will hit a ND game and it won't be played or completed!! 8)

 

I heard that NBC cancelled the ND-Syracuse game becaue of low ratings.

 

Oops...make that 8-4 for the Irish and still Gator Bowl bound.

Hey...most college football fans enjoy a little speculation on how the season will turn out. That's all it is...just speculation...but I am willing to bet I am somewhere around 70 to possibly 75% right if I am lucky.

( Let's talk in December )

The 25-30% wrong however could be a real doozy and probably will be....

Possibilities for that are:

Ohio State goes unbeaten....makes my posts of the last 3 months obsolete

Georgia beats UF....sends Florida back to Cap One....severely dampening my expectations...

Notre Dame wins 10 games......goes BCS bowling....

Notre Dame doesn't improve....goes 6-6.....

USC loses to OSU and to 2 other PAC 10 teams.....plays UT in the Holiday Bowl

W Va goes unbeaten....edges UF or USC for the title game slot

Note: the one thing that will not happen is a one loss OSU knocking out a one loss SEC champion for the title game appearance.

Not in a million years.... 8)

 

Oh yeah??? Well I can tell you that in a million years an undefeated SEC Division Champion who loses in the SEC Championship game won't out poll a OSU team that lost to USC and then ran off an impressive 10 game winning streak. It won't happen. What might happen is that if the SEC Champion has an early loss like OSU (potentially) and then runs off a string of victories including the SEC Championship game then they probably could get the nod over a 1 loss OSU. Just depends on the circumstances, whose loss is better?

 

oh yeah

right now i'm just worried about the coin toss. our chances of survival diminish greatly after that.

i just hope they spare the leprachaun.

 

Well I just hope the ref remembers to bring a coin!

 

given the results of last season..

i'd just as soon he did so we can declare it a tie

 

Uh Terry....

I did say SEC Champion...which means a win in the SEC Championship game and not a loss.

No way the SEC CG loser ever makes the NC game....unless by some quirk people finally wanted to see a conference rematch.....but that is pretty unlikely.

On the "which loss is better" question I defer to my three plus months of debating this issue and it's definitely based on OSU's losses to the SEC in the NC game the last two years.

I just can't see how OSU with one loss could outpoint a one loss SEC Champion based on recent events in the last two seasons.

 

So....8-4 and a Gator Bowl berth wouldn't be half bad eh Corey?

After last season I would agree.

I think given the schedule it is very doable for ND.

 

What happened last year is last year.

A team that loses a big game early, is in better position than a team that loses a game late in the season. Say a UF loss to FSU then...would put UF at a disadvantage to a OSU team that lost early to USC. Take it to the bank!! :twisted: :twisted:

 

I wouldn't take it to the bank but that last scenario could make it a slim possibility.

But the saving grace would be the SEC title game Terry.

That is a pretty big deal in the minds of voters while the Big Ten sits idle and then you go head to head in comparing the SEC to Ohio State specifically and when you do that I don't think the Buckeyes would get that third chance by leaping over the SEC one-loss contender especially if they did have a loss to USC in the non-con.

 

right now I'm just worried about winning the coin flip..

and watching shark week

 

First of all, our earlier stupid discussion did not center around a one-loss OSU team jumping a one-loss SEC Champ...it centered around whether a loss to USC would completely eliminate OSU from consideration from all the bitter voters, who were so horribly let down the last two years.

Secondly, I don't think ANY one-loss team is likely to bump a one-loss SEC Champ from the title game.

But playing devil's advocate...supposing tOSU lost a barn burner to USC, looked great all year, and that one-loss that the SEC champ had was to a weak team...maybe even late in the year...maybe even at home?

 

I absolutely love it when Tennessee is off the radar screen with respect to three things:

• 1) Injuries
  
  2) Off the field troubles
  
  3) Discussions involving on field success before the season starts

Reminds me of a lawyer commercial: Wemay not look like champions but it helps us sneek up on them! :wink:

 

Stu...assuming USC beats OSU I think the Trojans would need two losses not to make the NC game.

Then that leaves the SEC and Big 12 who each have title games by the way to come up with a one loss champion.

Since I think OSU doesn't make it over any of those three one loss champions if the Bucks also have one loss they then need to beat USC and if not, they need to hope for two loss champions both from the Big 12 and the SEC.

On Tennessee....you could be right Tom but I think they will miss Eric Ainge especially early on and don't the Vols play at Georgia this year and also at Auburn.

Those will be tough games for the Vols to win this year.

 

Well, not rocket science it seems but, given that at present the pollsters like a zero loss Ohio State team over anybody else's zero loss team it would not be a giant leap of faith to suggest that they may similarly like a one loss Ohio State team over any others as well.....

as TOK has said, it will come down to the same things it always does. When did you lose and to whom.

If we should happen to lose to SC in a good ballgame and run the table in the Big 10, I would suggest to you that the odds are better than even money that we'd be playing for the title......again.

That said, there are some damn tough conference road trips this Buckeye team has to make. If you give me 1-0 wins in Madison, E. Lansing and Champaign I'll take it in a heartbeat and book my flight to Miami.

 

But, what if USCw then loses to Stanford, Cal, and/or ND after playing tOSU so tough? Would that impact the decision of selecting an 11-1 B10/11 champ over a 12-1 SEC champ?

If tOSU defeats USCw, it's hard to see them not going undefeated against this schedule:

DATE OPPONENT
8/30 Youngstown State
9/06 Ohio
9/13 @ USC
9/20 Troy
9/27 Minnesota
10/04 @ Wisconsin
10/11 Purdue
10/18 @ Michigan State
10/25 Penn State
11/08 @ Northwestern
11/15 @ Illinois
11/22 Michigan

The big question is .... what's their season ending strength of schedule?