Updated: YEP 1. Undefeated SEC champ (Bama) NOPE 2. Undefeated B10 champ (UM) – UM no longer undefeated NOPE 3. Undefeated ACC champ (Clemson) – Clemson no longer undefeated NOPE 4. Undefeated P12 champ (uw) – uw no longer undefeated NOPE 5. 1-loss SEC champ (Bama) - Bama cannot be SEC champ with 1 loss NOPE 6. 1-loss B10 champ (OSU, UM) - OSU and UM cannot be B10 champs YEP 7. 1-loss ACC champ (Clemson, Louisville) – Louisville has >1 loss YEP 8. 1-loss P12 champ (uw) NOPE 9. 1-loss SEC non-champ (Bama) - Bama ended undefeated NOPE 10. 1-loss B12 champ (WV) – WV cannot be B12 champ OOPS 11. 1-loss B10 non-champ (UM) – UM cannot be non-champ with 1 loss I got this one wrong, I should have had OSU along with UM. NOPE 12. 1-loss ACC non-champ (Louisville) – Louisville has >1 loss NOPE 13. 1-loss P12 non-champ (uw) – uw cannot be non-champ with 1 loss NOPE 14. 2-loss SEC champ coming out of the SECW (Auburn)- Auburn has >2 losses 15. 2-loss B10 champ (PSU, Wisc, NU, UM, OSU, Minn) – NU, UM, OSU cannot be champ with 2 losses and Minn has >2 losses NOPE 16. 2-loss P12 champ (CU, uw, WSU, UU) – uw cannot be P12 champ with 2 losses and WSU, CU, UU have >2 losses NOPE 17. 2-loss ACC champ (Clemson, WF, VT, UNC) – Clemson cannot be champ with 2 losses and WF, VT, UNC have >2 losses NOPE 18. 2-loss SEC champ coming out of the SECE (UF) - UF has >2 losses 19. 2-loss B12 champ (OU, OkSU, BU, WV) – OkSU, BU has >2 losses, WV cannot be B12 champ NOPE 20. 2-loss SEC non-champ (Bama, A&M) – Bama cannot get 2 losses and A&M has >2 losses 21. 2-loss B10 non-champ (UM, PSU, OSU, NU, Minn, Wisc) – OSU ended with 1 loss and NU, Minn has >2 losses, Wisc cannot be non-champ with 2 losses, PSU was champ NOPE 22. 2-loss P12 non-champ (uw) - uw cannot be champ with 2 losses NOPE 23. 2-loss ACC non-champ (Clemson, Louisville, WF, VT, UNC) – Louisville, WF, VT, UNC have >2 losses, Clemson was champ with 1 loss 24. 2-loss B12 non-champ (WV, BU) – BU has >2 losses Well, the committee did, indeed, take a 1-loss B10 non-champ OSU over a 2-loss B10 champ PSU.
Nice analysis. I cannot remember a worse match-up for Florida in any game in the past 35 years than the one Saturday vs. Bama. I can't see UF covering the 21 point spread that has offcially come out and that spread by the way is the second highest in SEC Title game history. So.... Bama is in.
Kes, it's a nice, well thought out analysis, but you seem to be focusing only on conference champions, not the 4 best teams. If I read your analyis correctly, you have the 2-loss B10 champ in the playoff and Ohio State nowhere to be seen. I don't see that happening. As of today, you won't get an argument from most that Ohio State is one of the best 4 teams in the country based on strength of schedule. If the criterion is conference championship, then your analysis holds true, assuming Washington and Clemson win next Saturday. I could be wrong, but it's my understanding that it's the 4 best teams. We'll know a week from Tuesday.
Yeah it's a good analysis based on conf champs only though. I have heard a number of people on the Airwaves including Robt Smith and Eddie George who lament that the B1G Champion will likely not get in and the Buckeyes likely will. They say why bother to have a conference championship if a team that didn't win it's conf championship goes to the playoff. It's been done before, OU was keel hauled by KState one year and still went to the BCS championship game, which they lost of course.
I believe that if Penn State wins.... having beaten the Buckeyes then the Nits should be the lone Big Ten rep IF there is only one. Ohio State did beat Michigan at home.... in 2 OT... and that spot ending the game for a Michigan W instead could have easily been overturned. Therefore.... no mandate for Ohio State.... it was way too close of a call and they struggled on offense significantly and that combination of events from Saturday's game does not propel them to jumping over the team that beat them earlier and also the team that would be Big Ten Champion instead of the Buckeyes.
I did take into account non-champs. Scenario #11, for instance had non-champ UM. I don't remember why I didn't include OSU in that scenario when I first put this together a month ago. You do bring up good points, though. Right now, the CFP rankings (including tomorrow) don't take into account the conference championships. For a non-champion to be in the top 4, it must be absolutely clear that they are among the top 4, and with all else being equal, the championship is the deciding factor. If you want to get OSU in there, who do you take out? I doubt you get OSU in over Bama, even if UF beats them. Do you put OSU in over a 1-loss Clemson ACC champion? I doubt the committee does. Do you put OSU in over a 1-loss uw P12 champion? I would, but that's because I hate the Huskies and would love to hear them cry. But I doubt the committee does. Then, according to my list, you get down to the winner of the B10. Suppose PSU wins the championship. Do you think the committee puts OSU in over the team that beat them a couple weeks ago? It is more likely that OSU gets in over Wisc if they win, but even then, Wisc has two losses to, at the time, #2 and #3 teams in the nation. Whereas OSU lost to, at the time, UR PSU. Where the list does get debatable is when comparing to 2-loss CU P12 champion, but CU will have one loss to, at the time, #3 team in the nation who, at the time of their QB getting injured, was ahead. Then losing to a now top 10 USC by 7 without their starting QB. Remember, OSU didn't even win their division, much less their conference. Finally, the most controversial comparison would be the winner of OU/OkSU. Against a 1-loss B10 non-champ, that may be where the list breaks down. Now, this is all based on how I anticipate the committee will view it. MY thinking is that, there are not enough inter-sectional games between the various conferences to KNOW who are the four best teams. We are definitely closer now than when we were in the BCS years, but until each P5 conference champion has a path to prove it on the field, I really hate the idea of multiple teams from one conference. Until we get to a 6 or 8 team playoff, extreme circumstances should be required before a non-champion gets in over a champion (such as a 1-loss non-champ vs. a 3-loss champ that intentionally avoided and non-con games, BAYLOR). But what message are you sending OU, who scheduled Houston, OSU (and ULM) non-cons to be left out because the rest of their conference sucked? Now, I've heard it said that OU had their chance and lost to OSU on the field? Well, didn't OSU lose to PSU on the field? A conference championship, or the LACK of a conference championship, should mean something. OSU lost the one game they couldn't lose, just like last year to MSU. I also want to point out that I think it's clear the B10 is the best conference this year. The SEC is Bama and then nobody else. There are no 1-loss teams left. There are no 2-loss teams left. There is only one 3-loss team left, and they're likely to get their 4th in the SECCG. So you drop from #1 to #15, vs. the B10 having four of the top 10, only one of which has another loss coming. I say that to not bang on the SEC, but to show that my feelings about the CFP selections aren't based on the perception that I am against everything SEC. I don't agree that two B10 teams should be in, either, which is also what I said back when everyone else wanted both UM and OSU in the BCSCG. Anyway, the list really is just for fun. Anyone can explain the selections away AFTER they're made. But who else sets up the coming selection scenarios 6 weeks BEFORE the final selections are made? 8)
I would put Ohio State in over any two loss team.... conference champion or not so that gets them in over Wisconsin. Putting them in over PennSt would have required a steamroll performance over MSU ( didn't happen ) and a solid non-nailbiting no controversy win over Michigan... ( didn't happen. ) And I would put a one loss conference champion Washington or Clemson in ahead of the Buckeyes also. If all three of those things happen I would rank it: 1. Bama 2. Clemson 3. Washington 4. PennSt 5. Ohio State
Kes, You do a great job dissecting all the variables. My attitude changes with the aging process. If we get in fine, if not it's not the end of the world. :lol:
Don, Thank you. It is a point of view, not necessarily the correct one. It's based on something other than emotion and drama which seem to fuel ESPN these days. But, I thought it might at least spark some discussion! Regardless of who gets in, there will be angst aplenty from the younger crowd. Which seems to be the point.
There are arguments for putting PSU in over OSU, should PSU beat Wisconsin...I will concede those arguments...you have laid them out. But everyone always only puts out one side of the equation. If you look at just about any variable except "PSU beat OSU", we come out ahead. Heck, in the AP poll we have beaten the #5 team, the #6 team, and the #7 team. And I think that we have 5 wins over teams that were top 10 when we beat them (including #3 last week). I fully expect to be in. You won't hear me bitching if not because yeah...we didn't beat PSU and if they win they are B10 champs (but as far as I'm concerned, if they win they are the 3rd best team in the B10.) I think our resume gets us in...we'll see...and whatever happens we'll ride with it.
I'd agree that Ohio State is one of the 4 best teams this year. Don't forget this is a team that lost a ton of players to the NFL, saw one of them (Bossa) this Sunday vs the Texans. To replace all those players and still have the season that they have had...amazing. I don't think they have a prayer handling Alabama though. In fact barring injuries or brain farts, this should be the easiest route to the Championship that Alabama has had since they whupped up on the Irish.
Dave, it's not a dilemma...not to me. And as usual, and as I said...you present only the facts that support your conclusion. A lot depends on whether you believe that the championship carries the most weight or the overall body of work. Winning the championship (and beating OSU) certainly are both valid parts of the body of work...and if you want to ignore the rest of the body of work then that's on you. If you don't think the rest is impressive enough then that's ok ...just don't ignore it to make the point you want to make. Otherwise just make the rule out that the conference champion goes. They have said over and over that the committee's goal is to get the best teams in the playoff...and that conference standings are only a part of what they look at. ..we'll see if they mean it. You want to jump the two loss #14 (Sagarin Computer Ranked) team over the one loss #2 ranked team. Actually I expect Wisconsin to win...but with my record of picking I probably have put the hex on the Badgers. :roll:
Stu, I'm usually the one making the contrarian argument so I don't usually give the other side. The other side of the argument seems to me to be the popular/most common argument and is that OSU is a given to be in. I felt everyone would be familiar with that side and didn't need to rehash it. I was offering an alternate viewpoint that I haven't really seen made anywhere. For the record, I won't be up in arms if OSU gets in; they've had a very impressive year. Especially considering all the talent that went to the NFL, as Doc T points out.
Terry, We didn't have a chance against Miami or Oregon either... 8) I don't wanna have a chance...just wanna play 'em.
Nobody talks about the hammering that Pitt put on Penn State do they? It wasn't just an upset, it was a beat down.
What if the roof falls in on Alabama and Fla beats them...will they still make the playoffs as a non-Champion?
Kes, I want to emphasize more strongly than I did earlier that I think what you are doing is very cool and is a huge benefit to the Skybox conversation. When I mentioned team over conference champ, I did so with respect for the amazing effort you've put into your analysis.
I see Alabama and Ohio State as locks. I don't necessarily agree but that seems to be the the consensus of the press right now. If Florida were somehow to upset Bama we could have two non conference champions as the top two seeds. As to the Gators, I think we will be lucky to cover the 24 point margin we are underdogs by.
Kes, I agree with you and I actually said the very same thing about the Big 10 and the SEC that you said a couple of weeks ago. I try to be objective although as the famous poet said "Oh lord it's hard to be humble when you're perfect in every way"!!!!!!