Bowl Game Expectations

The following are the matchups for the four good conferences. Based on my lists, which show the P12 is the toughest TOP TO BOTTOM conference, I’ve stated which team is favored. One of the changes that I have agreed with, is that ASU should be a few places lower than I currently have them, so if they lose to Navy then that is confirmed. Other than that, everything else follows from the list.

To maintain the current conference rankings as I see them, the conferences need to perform like this:
P12 – 6-2 (includes ASU loss)
SEC – 7-2 (includes Mississippi St. loss)
B12 – 4-5 (includes TCU win)
B10 – 1-6 (includes Michigan St. loss)

If the conferences perform worse/better than they should as compared to my rankings, then my rankings are circumspect and the discussion for the relative strength of the conferences is open for further discussion.

P12:
7-5 Arizona vs. 7-5 MWC Nevada – Arizona should win, so weaker if they lose
7-5 Washington vs. 10-2 MWC Boise St. – Washington should lose, so stronger if they win
9-4 UCLA vs. 7-5 B12 Baylor – UCLA should win, so weaker if they lose
7-5 ASU vs. 7-4 Navy – measuring stick game to see if ASU should be dropped
9-3 Oregon St. vs. 8-4 B12 Texas – Oregon St. should win, so weaker if they lose
7-5 USC vs. 6-7 ACC GT – USC should win, so weaker if they lose
11-2 Stanford vs. 8-5 B10 Wisconsin – Stanford should win, so weaker if they lose
11-1 Oregon vs. 11-1 B12 KSU – Oregon should win, so weaker if they lose

SEC:
12-1 Alabama vs. 12-0 ND, BCS NCG – to stay at #1 on the list, Alabama would need to win
8-4 Vandy vs. 7-5 ACC NC St. – Vandy should win, so weaker if they lose
10-2 LSU vs. 10-2 ACC Clemson – LSU should win, so weaker if they lose
8-4 Mississippi St. vs. 9-3 B10 Northwestern – MSU should lose, so stronger if they win
11-2 Georgia vs. 10-3 B10 Nebraska – Georgia should win, so weaker if they lose
10-2 S. Carolina vs. 8-4 B10 Michigan – S. Carolina should win, so weaker if they lose
11-1 Florida vs. 10-2 BE Louisville – Florida should win, so weaker if they lose
10-2 A&M vs. 10-2 B12 Oklahoma – A&M should win, so weaker if they lose
6-6 Mississippi vs. 6-6 BE Pitt – really good measuring stick, #9 SEC vs. #6 BE

B12:
7-5 Baylor vs. 9-4 P12 UCLA – Baylor should lose, so stronger if they win
7-5 Texas Tech vs. 6-6 B10 Minnesota – Texas Tech should win, so weaker if they lose
7-5 WV vs. 7-5 BE Syracuse – WV should win, so weaker if they lose
8-4 Texas vs. 9-3 P12 Oregon St. – Texas should lose, so stronger if they win
7-5 TCU vs. 6-6 B10 Michigan St. – really good measuring stick, #6 B12 vs. #7 B10
6-6 ISU vs. 10-3 CUSA Tulsa – ISU should lose, so stronger if they win
7-5 Oklahoma St. vs. 6-6 B10 Purdue – Oklahoma St. should win, so weaker if they lose
11-1 KSU vs. 11-1 P12 Oregon – KSU should lose, so stronger if they win
10-2 Oklahoma vs. 10-2 SEC A&M – Oklahoma should lose, so stronger if they win

B10:
6-6 Minnesota vs. 7-5 Texas Tech – Minnesota should lose, so stronger if they win
6-6 Michigan St. vs. 7-5 B12 TCU – really good measuring stick, #6 B12 vs. #7 B10
9-3 Northwestern vs. 8-4 SEC Mississippi St. – Northwestern should win, so weaker if they lose
6-6 Purdue vs. 7-5 B12 Oklahoma St. – Purdue should lose, so stronger if they win
10-3 Nebraska vs. 11-2 SEC Georgia – Nebraska should lose, so stronger if they win
8-4 Michigan vs. 10-2 SEC S. Carolina – Michigan should lose, so stronger if they win
8-5 Wisconsin vs. 11-2 P12 Stanford – Wisconsin should lose, so stronger if they win

ACC:
6-6 Duke vs. 9-3 BE Cincy
6-6 VA Tech vs. 9-3 BE Rutgers
7-5 NC St. vs. 8-4 SEC Vandy
6-7 GT vs. 7-5 P12 USC
10-2 Clemson vs. 10-2 SEC LSU
11-2 FSU vs. 12-1 MAC N. Illinois

BE:
9-3 Cincy vs. 6-6 ACC Duke
9-3 Rutgers vs. 6-6 ACC VA Tech
7-5 Syracuse vs. B12 WV
10-2 Louisville vs. 11-1 SEC Florida
6-6 Pitt vs. 6-6 SEC Mississippi

 

The situations of OSU and PSU have done the B1G no favors in terms of the bowl match ups.....it's quite possible they could get 0-fered.

Isn't it basketball season????

 

BT, I think MSU, M, and Northwestern have a very realistic chance to win their games. Wisconsin probably less so but I would not be shocked if the Badgers pull off an upset.

Purdue, and especially Nebraska and Minnesota have difficult match ups to put it tactfully as I can.

 

Since this is a topic for bowl expectations, I do not expect us to play in a bowl game this year! :twisted:

 

Bobda, NW and MSU perhaps, but you guys are playing an SEC school led by the ole ball coach himself, I just don't see how you have a chance!

In all seriousness, I don't disagree....but the B1G will likely be dogs in them all....

Don, comic relief will be my salvation this bowl season....

 

TB, I think working at a sportsbook might be a nice retirement gig for you. You are right -all of the B10 teams are underdogs.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

 

Ohio State will meet Tennessee in the Watch the games at home Bowl!

 

What does it mean if the cumulative records of the SEC's opponents is 82-27 and the Pac 12 opponents record is 64-33?

So 6-2 for the PAC 12 vs. that slate is as good as 7-2 vs. the SEC;s slate?

Just asking.....

 

Do you disagree that with those matchups, those are the results that should be expected? Raw W/L records, as I continue to explain, means nothing without knowing against whom those W/L records were accumulated. Would you not agree that 11-1 Northern Illinois is not the same as 12-1 Alabama?

I am trying for an objective analysis, of which the W/L record is a part.

So, with those matchups, are what I listed the results that should be expected based on the general consensus of conference quality?