Driving back from cape Cod yesterday I had the opportunity to surf a lot of talk radio on Sirius. Two separate rumors are floating around that the Democratic power brokers are going to ask Obama NOT to run for re-election. The idea is that they will set him up as some kind of world power broker a la Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter. When Republicans leave office they retire. Democrats use the presidency as a stepping stone to more lucrative business. In any case, the bloom is off the rose for this inept president.
Two years ago I had a discussion with a Libertarian. My prediction that Obama would NOT win the Democratic nomination for 2012. Instead, I figured the DNC would push for Hillary Clinton. Her biggest weakness last time was her lack of Executive experience, which could be countered (at the time) by Palin's Governor experience. (I can't explain why this didn't hurt Obama, except for the fact that too many people voted for the color of his skin rather than his obvious lack of experience.) Anyway, they proceeded to post her in the State Dept where she could earn this experience and silence her critics as to this very large flaw. At the time, it was very apparent to me they had already taken their hands off the reigns for him and were going to let him sink or swim (drown he has) on his own and let Hillary come in as a savior option. Nothing has happened in the last two years to lead me to believe this is still not in the works. We also discussed that if that happens, the black vote would be very discontent, but still being in the lap of the Dems would still overwhelmingly vote blue. They might lose 20%, but it will still be a large majority. The Republicans, to take advantage of this discontent, would do well to remind them of the history of the DNC and the RNC and their respective positions on slavery, human rights, etc. but as usual without the majority of media outlets, will likely not be able to make it stick except with a small portion. On the other side, even with losing a portion of the black vote, women will likely swing blue in numbers at least offsetting the losses. The Jewish vote would then be the deciding factor in the election, assuming those that receive the RNC nomination don't shoot themselves in the foot. My take right now is I really don't see a way for the Republicans to counter a Hillary bid for president. I would love to see Condoleeza run, but I have no confidence that the media would allow it to be seen how brilliant she is, especially since she was "part of the Bush PROBLEM". It could all play out vastly different, but in broad strokes, that was how I saw it.
I don't think Obama is an easy man to beat in spite of his gross incompetency and total lack of skills. He has added to an already formidable base of dependents that is the cornerstone of the democratic vote. And if they feel that there are not enough people on the dole to cast a vote for him, they will just bus in some more from south of the border. But I agree. Hillary is circling him like a buzzard over a carcass. Her biggest drawback at the moment is her hairdo.
:idea: If I were still a Democrat, I think I would punt and nominate Hillary, but it's still a huge risk. The Dems can't lose 20% of the black vote. They need it all in states like Ohio and Florida and more than 20% will stay home if Obama is ousted. As for Hillary, she will have a lot of explaining to do: like why her husband was flying around the world running his own foreign policy while she was Secretary of State and what exactly will be his job as "First Husband?" ....Enquiring Minds Want to Know.........JO'Co
Kes's scenario has great merit IMO, but, also IMO, the reality of presidential politics is that the party of the president would not dump him if he wants to run for a second term. Who knows? I could be dead wrong, but I don't think so. Jim, if you were a Democrat, you still would be thinking like a Republican. :lol: What I mean by that is, you must remember that roughly half the voters in the country are Democrats who still think he walks on water. Politics have become intensely more divisive than in the past, or so it seems, and people tend to support their favorite pol in a way similar to how some mothers of career criminals support their sons. Their boys are good kids who either are innocent (despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary) or who just made a mistake and don't deserve to be punished. Just watch how the Dems circle the wagons on the new "Buffett tax" issue. This issue alone will help save Obama's butt with his electorate. People with half a brain will recognize that it's a shell-game shift in the big picture from the Dem's irresponsible spending to blaming the rich for not paying "their share", but it will work in Obama's favor with the diehard Repub-hating Dems. I hope the "obstructionists" :wink: in the House can be successful in stopping the momentum, but it will be very difficult. This is all just my opinion, but I think Obama will run again and he will win. I certainly have been wrong on many issues more often than I can count, and I may be wrong on this one. We'll see as the presidential election season heats up.
More than anything, the percentage of voter turnout is critical in any election. Right now, I see much more energy in the anti-Obama camp. The novelty of the first African-American president and the media driven anti-Bush sentiment is gone. Young people who turned out for Obama in droves are now loaded with student loan debt and no jobs. Pardon me if I think that tea pary folks and dissatisfied independents will turn out in much greater numbers than Dem voters. Obama has managed to lose the NY Jewish vote. His campaign slogan "I'm incompetent because of Bush" won't fly.
The Chicago Tribune now suggesting out loud that Obama not run for re-election. That's his home town, right? http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/chi-chapman-obama-reelection,0,622512.column
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Hilary would be a strong Dem candidate but she says she will not oppose Obama. I think she should.....and maybe the temptation to become the first female U.S. President would be too much to pass up.
Obama is now more unpopular than either Jimma Cahtah or W was. If the Dems don't do something soon, they'll find out what a real historic election looks like...
and...? Since when does what a politician pukes out of their mouth have anything to do with what actually did happen, is happening, or will happen??
oh crap: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203611404577041950781477944.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Washington (CNN) - Although President Barack Obama’s overall approval rating remains steady, his standing among Democrats, and in particular among blue-collar Democrats, appears to have dropped, according to a new national survey. According to a CNN/ORC International Poll released Wednesday, 44% of Americans say they approve of the job the president’s doing in the White House, with 54% saying they disapprove of how Obama is handling his duties. The president’s approval rating has hovered in the same mid-40′s range since June in CNN surveys. But the poll indicates that there has been some change when Democrats are asked whether they want to see their party renominate Obama, with 26% of Democrats saying that they would prefer the party to nominate another Democrat for president next year, up from 18% in October. [...] “The biggest change comes among white Democrats with no college education, a group typically considered the core of the party’s blue-collar constituency,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Half of all white Democrats with no college education say they don’t want President Obama heading their party’s ticket next year.”