Pac 12 top: Stanford, Oregon, Oregon St., UCLA, Arizona, and Washington are all pretty good teams with USC in the conversation if you only consider their starting 22. Pac 12 bottom: Wazzu, Colorado, Utah, Cal SEC top: Alaama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, South Carolina and Mississippi St. are comparable to the six from the Pac, but Mississippi St., as you’ll see below, is really nothing better than okay. SEC bottom: Kentucky, Auburn, Arkansas, Vandy, Missouri, Tennessee From this, you can see there are quite a few more BAD teams in the SEC than in the P12. The top two or three in the SEC MIGHT be better than the top two or three in the P12, but top to bottom the P12 has the better balance with fewer BAD teams. To put it another way, assign the following to each team in each conference: 5 points = great teams 4 = very good 3 = good 2 = okay/average 1 = not good 0 = horrible P12 – average 2.42: 5 – N/A 4 – Stanford, Oregon, Oregon St., UCLA 3 – Washington, Arizona, USC 2 – ASU 1 – Cal, Utah 0 – WSU, Colorado SEC – average 2.14: 5 – Alabama (I don’t think they’re great, but giving them the benefit of the doubt) 4 – Georgia, Florida, LSU, A&M 3 – South Carolina (I would even put Florida here, but giving them the benefit of the doubt) 2 – Mississippi St. (I’m not sure MSU is even average, but giving them the benefit of the doubt) 1 – Vanderbilt, Missouri, Mississippi, Arkansas 0 – Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn Again, the P12 is better.
Now, onto the schedules. Based on the post above, I’ve already told you which teams in the SEC and P12 I consider of average or better quality (Alabama, Georgia, Florida, LSU, A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi St. in the SEC and Stanford, Oregon, Oregon St., UCLA, Washington, Arizona, USC, ASU in the P12). Based on the below, I might even take Mississippi St. out of the “okay/average” category and move them down. In the past, the argument is always that the SEC conference is so brutal, playing a top-flight program almost every week of the season, that they are justified in scheduling two or three patsies just to make their schedules comparable with everyone else in the country. So, for each team, take a look at what are considered the “decent competition” games for each team. BAD teams are those I already talked about above, FCS teams, or FBS teams outside an AQ conferences with more than 2 losses. Alabama: *3-1 against okay or better: Michigan, Mississippi St., LSU, Texas A&M 7-0 against BAD teams: W. Kentucky, Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, W. Carolina 1 game left against BAD Auburn *4 total games against decent competition Georgia: 1-1 against okay or better: S. Carolina, Florida 9-0 against BAD teams: Buffalo, Missouri, Florida Atlantic, Vandy, Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, Auburn, Georgia Southern 1 game left against BAD Georgia Tech 2 total games against decent competition Florida: 3-1 against okay or better: Texas A&M, LSU, S. Carolina, Georgia 7-0 against BAD teams: Bowling Green, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vandy, Missouri, ULaLa, Jacksonville St. 1 game left against GOOD FSU 5 total games against decent competition LSU: *4-2 against okay or better: Washington, Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama, Mississippi St. 5-0 against BAD teams: North Texas, Idaho, Auburn, Towson, Mississippi 1 game left against BAD Arkansas *6 total games against decent competition Texas A&M: *3-2 against okay or better: Louisiana Tech, Florida, LSU, Mississippi St., Alabama 6-0 against BAD teams: SMU, South Carolina St., Arkansas, Mississippi, Auburn, Sam Houston St. 1 game left against BAD Missouri *5 total games against decent competition South Carolina: 1-2 against okay or better: Georgia, LSU, Florida 8-0 against BAD teams: Vanderbilt, ECU, UAB, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Wofford 1 game left against GOOD Clemson 4 total games against decent competition Mississippi St.: 0-3 against okay or better: Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU 8-0 against BAD teams: Jackson St., Auburn, Troy, S. Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee, MTSU, Arkansas 1 game left against BAD Mississippi 3 total games against decent competition *NOTE: all other stats are based on MSU being an okay/average team. Based on this, they are NOT GOOD, so it is even worse for those that played MSU! Vanderbilt: 0-4 against okay or better: South Carolina, Northwestern, Georgia, Florida 7-0 against BAD teams: Presbyterian, Missouri, Auburn, UMass, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee 1 game left against BAD Wake Forest 4 total games against decent competition Missouri: 1-4 against okay or better: Georgia, Arizona St., South Carolina, Alabama, Florida 4-2 against BAD teams: SE Louisiana, Central Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Syracuse 1 game left against GOOD Texas A&M 5 total games against decent competition Mississippi: 0-5 against okay or better: Texas, Alabama, Texas A&M, Georgia, LSU 5-1 against BAD teams: Central Arkansas, UTEP, Tulane, Auburn, Arkansas, Venderbilt *1 game left against GOOD Mississippi St. *6 total games against decent competition Arkansas: *1-5 against okay or better: Alabama, Rutgers, Texas A&M, Tulsa, South Carolina, Mississippi St. 3-2 against BAD teams: Jacksonville St., Lousisiana Monroe, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi 1 game left against GOOD LSU *7 total games against decent competition Tennessee: *1-5 against okay or better: North Carolina St., Florida, Georgia, Mississippi St., Alabama, South Carolina 3-2 against BAD teams: Georgia St., Akron, Troy, Missouri, Vanderbilt 1 game left against BAD Kentucky *6 total games against decent competition Auburn: *0-5 against okay or better: Clemson, Mississippi St., LSU, Texas A&M, Georgia 3-3 against BAD teams: UL-Monroe, Arkansas, Mississippi, Vanderbilt, New Mexico St., Alabama A&M 1 game left against GOOD Alabama *6 total games against decent competition Kentucky: *1-5 against okay or better: Louisville, Kent St., Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi St., Georgia 1-4 against BAD teams: Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Samford 1 game left against BAD Tennessee *6 total games against decent competition An average of 5 games against decent competition (<4.5 if you take out Mississippi St.)
Stanford: 5-2 against okay or better: San Jose St., USC, Washington, Arizona, Notre Dame, Oregon St., Oregon 4-0 against BAD teams: Duke, Cal, WSU, Colorado 1 game left against GOOD UCLA 8 total games against decent competition Oregon: 4-1 against okay or better: Arizona, Washington, ASU, USC, Stanford 6-0 against BAD teams: Arkansas St., Fresno St., Tennessee Tech, WSU Colorado, Cal 1 game left against GOOD Oregon St. 6 total games against decent competition UCLA: 4-1 against okay or better: Nebraska, Oregon St., ASU, Arizona, USC 5-1 against BAD teams: Rice, Houston, Colorado, Cal, Utah, WSU 1 game left against GOOD Stanford 6 total games against decent competition Oregon St.: 4-2 against okay or better: Wisconsin, UCLA, Arizona, Washington, ASU, Stanford 5-0 against BAD teams: Nicholls St., WSU, BYU, Utah, Cal 1 game left against GOOD Oregon 7 total games against decent competition Washington: 2-4 against okay or better: LSU, Stanford, Oregon, USC, Arizona, Oregon St. 5-0 against BAD teams: San Diego St., Portland St., Cal, Utah, Colorado 1 game left against BAD WSU 6 total games against decent competition Arizona: 3-4 against okay or better: Oklahoma St, Oregon, Oregon St., Stanford, Washington, USC, UCLA 4-0 against BAD teams: Toledo, South Carolina St., Colorado, Utah 1 game left against GOOD ASU 8 total games against decent competition USC: 2-4 against okay or better: Stanford, Washington, Arizona, Oregon, ASU, UCLA 5-0 against BAD teams: Hawaii, Syracuse, Cal, Utah, Colorado 1 game left against GOOD Notre Dame 7 total games against decent competition Arizona St.: 0-4 against okay or better: Oregon, UCLA, Oregon St., USC 6-1 against BAD teams: Northern Arizona, Illinois, Missouri, Utah, Cal, Colorado, WSU 1 game left against GOOD Arizona 5 total games against decent competition Utah: 0-7 against okay or better: Utah St., ASU, USC, UCLA, Oregon St., Washington, Arizona 4-0 against BAD teams: Northern Colorado, BYU, Cal, WSU 1 game left against BAD Colorado 7 total games against decent competition California: 1-6 against okay or better: Ohio St., USC, ASU, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, Oregon St. 2-2 against BAD teams: Nevada, Southern Utah, WSU, Utah 7 total games against decent competition Colorado: 0-7 against okay or better: UCLA, ASU, USC, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona, Washington 1-3 against BAD teams: Colorado St., Sacramento St., Fresno St., WSU 1 game left against BAD Utah 7 total games against decent competition Washington St.: 0-5 against okay or better: Oregon, Oregon St., Stanford, UCLA, ASU 2-4 against BAD teams: BYU, EWU, UNLV, Colorado, Cal, Utah 1 game left against GOOD Washington 6 total games against decent competition An average of 6.75 games against decent competition. So, the conference whose members EACH play about 2 more “competitive” games, has results pretty similar to those of the other. I give the nod to the ones that went up against tougher competition, rather than a full FCS slate. Summation of Pac 12 out of conference games: 1xACC 4xBig 10 1xBig 12 1xBig East 2xConference USA 1xMAC 7xMWC 2xSEC 1xSun Belt 2xWAC 2xNotre Dame 3xBYU 9xFCS = 0.75 FCS games per team
summation of SEC out of conference games: 6xACC 2xBig 10 1xBig 12 3xBig East 7xConference USA 5xMAC 2xPac 12 12xSun Belt (not much better than some FCS teams) 3xWAC 15xFCS > 1.0 FCS games per team The SEC has FOUR OOC games available to them. The argument for those that have a tough rivalry game, plus the “tough” conference schedule doesn’t hold water this year. Against tougher competition, the Pac 12 has demonstrated they are the #1 conference this year.
LOL! Fabulous work by Kes! I now suspect that he's the Unibomber...no one else could have produced such a statistical analysis with that much accuracy and detail. Wonderful stuff!
How about a category for not just "okay or better" but for games vs. current members of the BCS Top Ten? I would say a schedule that includes four such teams would stack up pretty well vs. the Pac 12 schedules....... wouldn't you? :wink: 8) Oh.... and I guess you could throw in BCS #12 for good measure as an "okay" rated team.
Kes, that's a great analysis. Very objective and balanced. It strips away the "beauty contest" bias of the polls, including the BCS poll. Nice job!
Yes, Dave, Florida did play one of the better SEC schedules this year. This, as I pointed out, included Texas A&M, LSU, South Carolina, Georgia, and FSU. Other than that, as is typical in the SEC, who else did they play? 7-4 MAC Bowling Green 4-7 Tennessee (four wins against 6-5 NC State, FCS Georgia St., 1-10 MAC Akron, 5-6 Sun Belt Troy) 2-9 Kentucky (two wins against 10-1 MAC Kent St., FCS Samford) 7-4 Vanderbilt (seven wins against FCS Presbterian, 5-6 Missouri, 3-8 Auburn, 1-10 MAC UMass, 2-9 Kentucky, 5-6 Mississippi4-7 Tennesse) 5-6 Missouri (five wins against FCS SE Louisiana, 8-3 CUSA UCF, 2-9 Kentucky, 4-7 Tennesse) 6-4 Sunbelt ULaLa FCS Jacksonville St. Like I said, Florida played one of the BETTER SEC schedules, and look at all that bloat! Congrats, you should be proud having your entire season hang on four games (plus FSU to come)!
There may be some filler......but getting through those 5 teams unbeaten is/was a tough task...... tougher than doable for a team admittedly without a good offense. It wouldn't be easy for any team out there as was proven last Saturday night by Baylor and Stanford beating BCS #s 1 and 2..
Kesley and I discussed this earlier, and he failed to point out how the PAC is dodging the MAC, and instead bloating their schedule with BIG 10 teams! :wink: I hate that we had to play not one, but TWO FCS teams, but we had to take who we could get on ultra short notice when our sched was reset after moving to the SEC. We still have one next year, and then I believe we're back to all FBS for 2014...
Scott, A&M always has played a competitive OOC schedule. People who follow college football recognize the temporary glitch in your schedule. Of course, if A&M feels that its conference schedule is so tough that it can't continue its past OOC scheduling practices, there are many choices among Texas FCS schools. :lol:
Too bad Scott that you guys aren't playing Texas annually because at the end of the season it helps to get a better national title shot by playing a good OOC team if you are close enough for that type of consideration. Playing FSU in 2006 helped UF a lot in edging past Michigan for the BCS #2 slot and this year we could be OK if we didn't play them but it makes it almost certain that if we beat the noles then we are in as #2 if ND falters.
For the record... I did not put Kes up to this. I've taken a kumbaya approach this year. Although, I do applaud his work. I still had to LOL at this. Yes, let's spend all our time citing the very thing that we all (except you when it serves you) agree is broken. The BCS is the SEC's baby and under this system they've flourished like no other conference in the history of football. Coincidences and miracles happen... it's possible it's all just a fluke.
The BCS ratings come from 6 sets of computer rankings plus two human polls. That's quite a lot of data and opinions compiled to rank the teams. I'll take that over the Mutual Lovers of the PAC 12 poll.... :wink:
You don't know the difference between a "poll" and an objective, factual analysis? This is the work of a smart guy who knows what he's doing and is willing to put in the time and effort to prove his point.