Which five of the following teams get to go to a BCS bowl this year? Alabama Texas Tech Texas Florida Oklahoma USC Utah Penn St. Even if all of these teams win their remaining games (except those they play each other) three of them will not get in. And you're wrong if you think an undefeated Utah gets left out for the others. The following scenarios assumes everyone not mentioned wins out: BCS CG (#1 vs. #2) #1: Alabama, if they win out, ends up #1 Texas Tech, if they win out and Bama loses to Florida, ends up #1 Oklahoma, if they win out and Bama loses to Florida, ends up #1 #2: Floriday, if they win out, ends up #2 Texas Tech, if they win out, ends up #2 Oklahoma, if they win out, ends up #2 To fill out the rest of the bowls, we have to determine the automatic bids. So, there are 10 BCS bowl slots, six of which automatically go to the champions of the SEC, Big XII, Big 10, PAC 10, ACC, and Big East. The other four are at-large selections from eligible teams. Well, unless you have non-BCS conference champions that receive automatic bids. Remember, I said I was assuming everyone wins out, except where noted (and against the other teams). Well, that includes #7 Utah, #9 Boise St., and # 14 Ball St. Why is this important, because that leaves only ONE at-large spot remaining for those BCS non-champions to share. Including USC, who can't be the PAC-10 champion without Oregon St. losing. How can this be? There are two ways a non-BCS conference champion can earn an automatic bid. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either: A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or: B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls. Well howdy do, since currently the ACC, Big East AND PAC-10 champions are ALL ranked lower than those three non-BCS champions, how likely is it ALL THREE will pass them? This leaves ONE remaining at-large. Now, let's look at the order of who gets the good teams: If Alabama wins out, the Sugar gets the first (as a replacement to Alabama) and third (at-large #2) at-large selections. However, if Florida wins out, leaving the Fiesta with the first (as a replacement to Texas Tech or Oklahoma) and second (at-large #1) at-large selections, the Sugar will get the third (as a replacement to Florida) and fourth (at-large #2) at-large selections. The Orange gets the fifth (at-large #3) at-large selection. So, what that leaves... SUGAR BOWL (SEC vs. at-large #2) If Alabama wins out, Sugar picks to replace them, probably Florida then puts them up against a Boise St. or Cincy/Pitt. If Floriday wins out, Sugar picks after Fiesta's two picks. Can you say Cincy/Pitt vs. Boise St.? FIESTA BOWL (Big XII vs. at-large #1) If Florida wins out, Fiesta picks to replace TT or OU, probably Texas then puts them up against Utah. If Alabama wins out, Fiesta still gets Utah but then probably takes Boise St. ORANGE BOWL (ACC vs. at-large #3) Ouch. North Carolina/FSU/Wake Forest vs. Ball St. or Cincy/Pitt. ROSE BOWL (PAC-10 vs. Big-10) This one's easy (and maybe good) with Oregon St. if they win out vs. Penn St. If Oregon St. stumbles we'd have a good USC vs. PSU game. Are you ready for some football?
My head hurts too, and I was working through the scenarios with him! What COULD happen, is the worst rated bowl season ever. Would anyone go to/watch that projected Sugar bowl if Florida was in the champ game? Ugh!! Somehow some way the BCS goobs almost always get what they want, so I'm sure weird things will come to pass to prevent Kesley's predicted bowl apocalypse. 8)
WOW, that's a tough call. I think if bama makes the SECCG unbeaten, they are in a BCS game regardless. I don't think Florida gets in if they lose the SECCG. Ditto that for the Big12 situation. If Oregon State wins out, they take the Pac10's automatic BCS spot for the record.
Good analysis Kesley, and welcome back. Got to love that Orange Bowl match, it will be the highest draw of the season. ACC vs Big East. I think you are right about the NC match, if Alabama or Florida and one of the three Big 12 teams win out they will be matched. I don't agree with Corey about Florida though, if they win out to the SEC Championship game then lose, especially if it's a close game, then I think the Gators go to a BCS Bowl. Nice having you back.
Bill, I am looking at spots available, it's nothing against your Gators. You have a mess of once beaten teams from the Big12. I can't see them not getting 2 teams in the BCS. You may well have unbeaten Utah and Boise State crashing the chance. You have a Big East, ACC, Pac10, Big12, Big10, and SEC winners taking 6 spots. Perhaps Utah and Boise.. If there is a 2nd Big 12 team that leaves one spot for UF. USC etc etc etc
Your point is well taken Corey, I'm kind of hanging my hat on the excitement the Gator team brings this year and that we travel pretty well. I do think that the Big 12 gets two so the spots could become iffy.
I'll try to make it easier to understand how disastrous the upcoming matchups are likely to be. Best case: Alabama vs. Oklahoma Worst case: Texas Tech vs. Florida For the remaining four bowls, there are 5 at-large selections. The first goes to whichever bowl loses the #1 team to the CG. The second goes to whichever bowl loses the #2 team to the CG. The third goes to the Fiesta for at-large #1. The fourth goes to the Sugar for at-large #2. The fifth goes to the Orange for at-large #3. Best case: Florida vs. Pitt Worst case: Utah vs. Cincy Best case: Texas vs. Boise St. Worst case: Utah vs. Boise St. Best case: FSU vs. Ball St. Worst case: UNC vs. Ball St. Best case: USC vs. PSU Worst case: Oregon St. vs. PSU Assuming Utah, Boise St. and Ball St. continue to win, there will only be one BCS conference that gets two BCS bids, leaving all the others in non-BCS games. What kind of ratings will the BCS bowl games get if USC, Florida and Oklahoma are left out for Boise St. and Ball St.?? Not to mention an undeserving Big East and ACC champion (and Oregon St. if they end up winning out).
Well, I just found another clause in the BCS spaghetti bowl they call selection rules that prevents the aforementioned impending disaster: No more than one such team from Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, and the Western Athletic Conference shall earn an automatic berth in any year. (Note: a second team may be eligible for at-large eligibility as noted below.) If two or more teams from those conferences satisfy the provisions for an automatic berth, then the team with the highest finish in the final BCS Standings will receive the automatic berth, and the remaining team or teams will be considered for at-large selection if it meets the criteria. I would imagine, since they won't be forced to take Boise St. and Ball St., those two teams will likely be left out in favor of the majors (USC, Florida, Oklahoma, etc.) My bad, sorry all.
See... the BCS powers will never give up their right to choose. They simply allowed ONE of the have-nots a shot to shut them up.
Thanks for making it all so perfectly clear! 8) 8) I do think that if the SEC Champ goes to the BCS Championship then the second SEC team will likely go to the Sugar Bowl.
Mack Brown actually said in a press conference the other day that he didn't think that BCS conference champions should be guaranteed a BCS bowl slot and he didn't like limiting a conference to only 2 teams in BCS bowls. I've been saying for a long time that they need to get rid of the guaranteed BCS bids, it would keep the ACC and BE team out of it this year as without the guarantee I doubt if any ACC or BE team will qualify for a BCS bowl spot. It should always be about the best teams get to play in the best bowls. As far as the 3rd conference team in the BCS bowls, I understand that it's more about supposed fairness amongst the conferences. But really and truly if we are going to have a BCS ranking and they need 10 teams then they should take the top 10 teams slot them in the BCS bowls. Maybe give the bowls some wiggle room to get at least 1 team from their home region (SEC in Sugar, etc) but that's about it. Terry
I don't pay much attention to the BCS "rules" but it seems to me that the very essence of the alliance is to guarantee the participating conferences at least one slot in the BCS bowls. If you change the qualifying criteria such that one or more participating conferences could be excluded, PLUS another conference enjoying an "up" year, like this year's Big12, could get more than two teams in, it would be the end of the BCS.......which might not be a bad thing. In short, like the possibility of a playoff, that scenario will never happen.
Well said Terry. I think everyone here agrees with that but will it happen... in my life time... I doubt it. It is more about the $$$ than the teams deserving to be there.
Maybe not. If the conference has a guaranteed bid only if the conference guarantees a worthy participant, the BCS could possibly still exist. That guarantee could be tied to the conference champion having to be ranked in the top xx positions of the BCS rankings after the last final season game including conference championship games. It's obvious that I don't have a dog in this fight this year so I can at least be fairly objective. :wink: