BCS analysis

Discussion in 'Sports Board' started by Motorcity Gator, Oct 20, 2008.

  1. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    This from CFN:

    " There are three other interesting things to note in the initial rankings.

    1. Georgia (7), Florida (10) and LSU (13) control their own destiny if Penn State loses and/or there isn't an unbeaten Big 12 champion. After the way the SEC has won the last two national championship games, the league will get the first benefit of the doubt if everything else is equal. All three of the SEC teams have losses, but all three came against the other division. So unlike Oklahoma who's in big trouble because it lost to Texas, the Bulldogs, Gators, or Tigers can win out and be SEC champions."


    From MCG:

    One thing I have noticed is that losses....no matter how slim as in the case of a blocked XP for Florida vs. Ole Miss....are weighed much heavier in the computer polls than big wins are ( read: 30 points over LSU ). UF ( #12) and USC (#10) both take huge hits in the computer polls because of their losses although I don't see the math where USC is ranked 4, 5 and 6 in the polls, #10 in the computer polls but winds up #5 in the BCS poll whereas UF is ranked 5, 6 and 7 in the human polls, #12 in the computer polls and is 5 spots in back of USC in the BCS poll. That seems a bit unusual.

    USC lost solidly to Oregon St. and UF lost by a blocked kick to a team that gave #2 Bama fits at the end and yet one computer guy ( Wolfe ) has UF severly penalized for that loss.

    This guy has Florida at #20 with teams like Ball St., Minn and even LSU ranked ahead of the Gators. He is a researcher of medicine at UCLA....

    http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/ratings.htm#first

    Pretty unbalanced.....
     
  2. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    Losing at home to a cupcake is not without penalty.....Ole Miss is a cupcake, you lost to them in the swamp. Oregon State is not a cupcake and the game was not at home. When you lose to ocupcakes, you should be severely penalized.....it ain't rocket science.

    Witness SC and their loss to Stanford as a primary reason for them not playing for the title last year.
     
  3. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    Nobody....not the #3 ranked team and not the #2 ranked team has blown out Ole Miss like PSU did to OreSt.

    A more football educated ranking system....albeit subjective....CFN has this on the two teams:

    40 Oregon State (4-3)
    41 Wisconsin (3-4)
    42 Ball State (7-0)
    43 Auburn (4-3)
    44 Tennessee (3-4)
    45 Ole Miss (3-4)

    Personally I would take Ole Miss straight up vs. the Beavers.

    Here is the actual BCS computer rankings:

    http://cfn.scout.com/2/582114.html
     
  4. Scott88

    Scott88 Well-Known Member

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    I would place neither team in the "cupcake" category.

    However, I would say losing to a lower tier conference team at home is going to be viewed more severely (and rightly so) than losing on the road.
     
  5. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    You got beat at home, however slimly by a vastly inferior team and your defense gave up the same number of points as the Samford defense gave up to them. You might fairly say that the team wasn't up and that they were sky high and stuff like that. But I doubt if Ole Miss has a single player that Urban Meyer, other than Jevan Snead, who Urban even had on a recruiting list. You did have the good sense to lose early so that if that team that pummeled LSU shows up the rest of the season you'll have a shot.

    But I would disagree with your thought that past success in BCS championship games the last 2 years should count for bupkus. It's what's happening this year that should count.
     
  6. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Shocking, is there a SEC team you wouldn't take straight up to beat a non-SEC team?
     
  7. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    :lol: :lol: :lol:

    You would be a very lonely fellow in that regard.....

    Before beating your Gators in the swamp, the only wins for the mighty Rebs - and still to this day their only wins - were against Memphis and Samford......yes, Memphis and Samford. They sport losses against Wake - Wake lost to Navy! - Vandy and SoCar......juggernauts all. They are a cupcake....you lost to them....at home....deal with it.
    .....I thought PSU WAS the #3 ranked team? In any event, that suggests to me that PSU must be pretty good.
     
  8. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    I agree this year counts the most for this year absolutely.

    I also agree the home aspect of the loss was damaging to UF but I also watched as Oregon State actually put the wood to USC. Ole Miss was fortunate to pull that one out over UF...very fortunate but they did it and the computers don't see the games and have no way to account for the domination Florida had over LSU so somehow LSU winds up ranked ahead of Florida.

    When you look at the BCS computer rankings you can see that Wolfe is out of sync with the majority by a long shot.

    He even has Ga Tech ranked over the Gators.

    I guess we will see in the next few games if he is more right than wrong.
     
  9. Bear Down Rick

    Bear Down Rick Well-Known Member

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    It appears that Ole Miss has been "fortunate...very fortunate" in three of the four games they've played against Florida this decade, including the last two in Gainesville.

    Sometimes a team just has another team's number. I know Oregon State has seemingly had USC's number the last few years, albeit not to the same degree as UM having UF's.
     
  10. IrishCorey

    IrishCorey Well-Known Member

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    I thought that "y'all" put emphasis on bowl games as a sign of strength?

    Ole Miss has been to 3 bowls since 2000 and they fired the guy who took them to those. That's hard to do with all the tie-ins the SEC has to bowl games. Hell, they created yet another one this year!

    Oregon State has been to 6 bowl games in that same time frame going 5-1. They have won a BCS bowl game and won 4 straight bowl games.

    Starting with the 2000 season, Oregon State has had 2 5-6 seasons, the rest were all winning years with 8 or 9+ wins. In that same time frame, Ole Miss has had 4 losing seasons (3-8, 3-9, 4-7 type years)... The guy with the winning seasons is now the HC at Duke!!

    Of course, in your eyes... those 2 programs are even with the nod going to Ole Miss.
     
  11. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Well even given that PSU is now #3 and undefeated, so a loss to them at Happy Valley isn't a shame, but they did get their doors blown off..that hurts them. I assume that possibly they hadn't quite figured out what to do with the Quizz as yet. Right now at this point in the season they look pretty good, of course they are just comming off wins vs the 2 worst teams in Div1 football in UW and WSU.

    But while at one time in the past I liked computer polls, I thought they took the bias out of things, but now it seems like they take the logic out of things sometimes. I mean South Fla and Pitt have the same record and Pitt beat them at South Fla yet South Fla is ranked above them? How's that happen?