With pitchers & catchers just around the corner and with the unfortunate loss of our baseball sage, Dodger Dog, I am going to step in to try to partally fill the void. I can't possibly do it like DD but without him someone has to pick up the slack. Here is how I see things shaping up..... The biggest news today - other than the ongoing steroid mess - is the pending trade of Johann Santana to the Mets for 4 prospects IF the Mets can ink JS to a deal. It's thought that it will take a 5 or 6 yr. contract averaging around $20mm per. If the deal gets done, it would make the Mets the favorite on paper to win the NL East. The starting rotation likely would be Santana @ #1, Pedro @ #2, followed by some combination of Oliver Perez, John Maine, and El Duque. If Pedro can stay healthy and effective, if Billy Wagner can get the job done at closer, and if the top four position players (Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Delgado) can produce up to their capabilities, it would be tough IMO for the Phils and the Braves to overtake the Mets. I see the NL Central being up for grabs. The Cubs have improved their lineup, but pitching remains the eternal question mark. The Brewers are poised to move to the next level. The Cards' chances hinge on the health of their P staff, and the Stros IMO just don't have the pitching depth to make noise. Even Dusty Baker can't help the Reds, who simply don't have the horses to achieve and sustain a high level of success over the entire season, and the Pirates are......well....the Pirates. The NL West is very, very interesting. I fully expect the Dodgers to be in the thick of it along with the Dbacks and Rockies. When all is said and done, the Pads haven't done much to improve their chances, and the Giants are toast IMO. The Dbacks are the wild card here with the impressive additions to their starting rotation. Isn't it funny how things change? Just a couple of years ago, the NL West was considered a weak sister. This season, they have three of the strongest teams in the NL. As usual, the AL East will be a dogfight between the Yanks and the Red Sox, although the jury is out on how the Yanks will perform under their new manager. The Blue Jays always manage to play well over the course of the season but not well enough to overtake the top two teams in the division. The Rays have an impressive young team, but they are still climbing the mountain. The Orioles seem to be moving backwards. The AL Central is worth keeping a close eye on. The Tigers have surged into the favorite's role with the acquisition of Willis and Cabrera. The Indians will give them a run with their proven strengths as shown in last year's postseason. The runnerup in this division very well could be the wild card team. The White sox have tried to improve but I don't think they can compete with the Tigers' and Indians' depth over the course of a 162-game season. The Twins and Royals? Fugettaboutit. The AL West is a one-horse race IMO. The Angels. If the Mariners land a healthy Bedard and with their effective relief pitching, they could put pressure on the Angels. The Rangers will be competitive.....for second place. The A's have gutted the team and are not in the mix this year. Any thoughts from the peanut gallery?
Welcome DodgerDogWannabe, your input for baseball will be welcomed! As far as the Astros, we are going to have a great year at the bat to overcome the probable pitching deficiencies. Roy Oswalt you can pencil in for 18 wins or so, maybe more if he gets the run support. Brandon Backe was on radio yesterday sounding very upbeat, he can be a good pitcher but he's had problems staying healty. Wandy Rodrigues made a big leap last year and was very good at home, but he struggled on the road. If he can take the next step and get tough on the road then he could win 15-16 games. After that we have nothing proven. The bullpen has been remade and should be OK, maybe not up to the Wheeler/Qualls/Lidge combo of a few years ago but good enough. The thing about the NLCentral is that I don't see a dominant team. As you pointed out most of the contenders have potential issues with pitching. I think the Astros, if they hit and if Tejada doesn't lose his green card, could be in the race for the whole season. Terry
Oh yes......the Marlins......without Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera but with some very good young position players and with a couple of promising young SP but no depth in their pitching staff. Toast.
DDW, The loss of DD and his boon companion, Chico, has caused an extended period of mourning on this board. I for one have vowed in blood never to write another unkind comment about PAC 10 schools. Also, I will turn the other cheek in Christlike fashion when provocative comments are made about the Wolverines. I thank you for your well written analysis of the upcoming season. In reading your note, I sense you have some antipathy toward the Giants and Yankees or am I reading to much into your words?
No antipathy. Just trying to call the shots as I see them. I truly believe that the on-field leadership change for the Yankees could be a factor one way or the other in their performance. Who knows? Girardi may be able to get more out of them than Torre did. That's why I used the "jury is out" terminology. The Giants at the start of the post-Bonds era have a lot of work to do to build a contender in the now-tough NL West, and that's assuming that their very expensive lefty SP comes around. I used the word "toast" as a means of comparison to the other 4 teams in their division.
Thanks for the explanation. I recall that DD was not very keen about the Brewers last year. With their star closer leaving to Cincinatti, do you really think they have enough talent to challange the Cubs? I am uncertain who they have who could fill Cordero's shoes.
Gagne, of course! You wanted me to say that, didn't you? Seriously, they have 3 RP who have been closers, Gagne, Turnbow, and Mota. Maybe one of those will emerge and the other two will be late inning guys, or maybe they try closer by committee. Their starting rotation led by if-healthy Ben Sheets is OK, certainly no worse than the Cubs or any other starting rotaion in the NL Central. IMO their top four hitters, Braun, Hardy, Fielder and Hart, are not chopped liver compared to the Cubs' top four, Ramirez, Lee, Soriano and ?? (Fukudome?). The addition of Mike Cameron in CF can't hurt either. I'm afraid George is piling on, taking advantage of your turn-the-other-cheek vow re: Michigan. Those Jersey boys can be real bullies.
The Cardinals are a big question mark in the NL Central. The health of their SP is a major issue. They traded Rolen for Glaus, which I believe improves their hitting at 3B, at least in the power dept. Rolen has been injury-prone the past few years. Of course, Albert is Albert but I question the quality of his supporting cast compared to the past few seasons. Nice piece, Tom.
The Cubs' starting rotation is nothing to write home about, but there are 5 reliable arms. I wonder if Lieber will be able to crack the rotation and contribute. He is pretty long in the tooth at this point. The Cubs' achilles heel tends to be the absence of a topnotch closer and consistent late inning relief.
Tom, Get yourself a nice pinstripe suit to go with thatThompson and you can go to work for me in collections. Call Jif for an application 8)
Thanks Tom but that may not be necessary. I now see a new, wonderful Skybox era where Wolverine and Leprechaun can exist in eternal friendship and unity. TRANSLATION:May the indestructible friendship and collaboration of the Wolverine and Irish peoples survive and strengthen!"
Absolutely no reason to bring out the 100 round drum. Of course, that just means that I must remove my 50 round drum and insert a half full 30 round "stick" to make it a fair fight! :shock:
I probably should make a similar pledge about provocative comments about the Gators, but can't quite make myself do that! :wink: :wink:
Not to worry, Bill. Bobda is a very special and unique individual. The rest of us mere mortals don't have the ability to step aside from our deepest convictions in the interest of peace like Bobda has done. Also, who of us has the fortitude to turn the other cheek when our beloved team is disparaged? Only Bobda. Yes, he is a very special and unique individual. Hail to the victors from up north.