I am a longtime lurker, first time poster. I have read this forum for years because this is the most knowledgable and collegial discussion board I know of. You guys really seem to care about each other and stand behind what you write just as if you were having a face-to-face conversation. I'm honored to get the chance to post here. I happen to be a big fan of the Moneyball/Baseball Prospectus school of sports analysis. There are a lot of reasons why this works better in baseball than it does in football but a lot of the same principles apply. Most pressing for me as a Husker fan is the question "what makes a good coach?" What is the best way to think about how to hire a head coach? Obviously, this topic has traction far beyond Nebraska. I especially think this is a good way to approach the issue because we Huskers can get very emotional about this stuff and make decisions based on tradition, sentimentality, history, gratitude and other stuff that is not going to deliver us a new championship anytime soon. It is obvious that we made a spectacularly bad hiring decision with Callahan, one that looked good at the time to myself and lots of others. So I've been studying where great college football coaches come from and I think I have some insights. I hope to post on this at length and get some great feedback and argument from you guys. I also hope to weigh in on other topics. ~Matt
Welcome to the board NYC, I'll be interested in seeing what you have to say about the topic. I certainly haven't studied the issue in depth, but it does seem to me that it's somewhat of a crap shoot with regards to coaching hires. Who'd have thunk that Stoops, Tressel, and Carroll would be amongst the best hires ever. All were the 4 or 5th choices for their respective programs. Terry
Now to answer the question. . . <t>Long story short: Pelini is the best choice because of the impressive list of successful coaches who have hired and mentored him and because the of the record of his defenses the past few years at Nebraska, Oklahoma and LSU. I'm not sure there is anybody else with such a strong resume who is interested in leaving their current job.<br/> <br/> Long story long: I ran an analysis (I said I was a Moneyball geek!) of the best turnaround stories in football since 1960. I looked for turnaround years where a terrible 5-year win/loss record was followed by a great 5-year win/loss record then looked for the coaching changes that coincided with the turnaround.<br/> <br/> The results were about what you would expect. The top two turnaround came at the early end of my period: Bear Bryant in 1958 and Bob Devaney in 1960 achieved the most dramatic lasting results. While we fondly remember them as great coaches, few of us are old enough to remember how gawd-awful Alabama and Nebraska were when they arrived. <br/> <br/> You can guess a lot of the others on the list as well: Bobby Bowden in 1976, Snyder at K-State, McCartney at Colorado. A couple of the more obscure turnaround coaches are Maryland's Jerry Claiborne in the early 70s and Ken Hatfield/Fisher DeBerry at Air Force. Let me know if you want me to give you the whole list.<br/> <br/> The lesson here: Every dynasty started with a turnaround at some point. A few dynastic coaches like Tom Osborne inherited a successful program and some coaches like Mack Brown, Bob Stoops and Pete Carrol took over faded dynasties that were down but not quite out. My analysis didn't consider new turnaround situations like Schiano or Mangino because we don't have five years of results for them yet (though, with four years of results, Schiano's is shaping up to be one of the very most impressive turnarounds).<br/> <br/> So what I take from this is that a new coach has to be able to start winning with his predecessors middling talent. The turnaround usually takes from 2-4 years after the coaching change to bear fruit; Devaney was unusual in getting immediate success, more typical is McCartney or Snyder having a few years of building before the boom.<br/> <br/> Therefore I think it is a bad idea to hire a coach because he is a great recruiter. Once a coach starts winning championships, recruiting becomes easy. Once Bowden tackled the task of turnaround at 70s FSU, stockpiling talent in the 80s became a cinch.<br/> <br/> So the coach we want to hire has to be able to get great results from players no one else wants. Here is where the the parallel with Billy Beane's As starts to make sense. A great example is how Mangino is getting great results with an undersized and overlooked quarterback. Time will tell if Mangino can solidify the recent success at Kansas and thus get access to the top recruits. <br/> <br/> I look forward to reading your thoughts on this.<br/> <br/> ~Matt</t>
Welcome NYC. This is cool. Two Husker fans, each on different ends of the country (assuming NYC is in NYC). I really like and respect Husker football and its fans, especially since ND played them at our house several years back. I am from Indiana, and the Husker fans I saw and talked to were exactly like Hoosiers. That's a compliment. That is an interesting and thought-provoking analysis. I'm sure you'll get some interesting feedback.
Welcome Husker..... Pelini is a great hire because....he's a Buckeye! All great coaching pedigrees begin in Ohio do they not? Tressel, Stoops, Meyer, Miles, Pinkel and Pelini is the beginnng of the next generation! :wink: In all seriousness, I think Bo is a great choice and wish him much success....welcome to the board.
- <t>Welcome aboard Matt!<br/> <br/> I hope you decide to stick around. Your analysis is most certainly thought provoking. I really like what you are saying about patience in recruiting. I'm not sure that 'top talent' is always needed across the board, but rather, 'system talent' would be on the mark. Guys like Mangino will be behind the 8-ball recruiting for at least 3 to 5 more years IMHO... if for not other reason, I see them having to prove that 1) he's not leaving like everyone else who has ever stopped by Kansas 2) They aren't going to suck when Nebraska comes back...and they are coming back under Bo 3) they can land top national talent at all.<br/> <br/> IMHO, they are surrounded by too much history in that conference. I think Mangino has done a terrific job picking up guys who fit his system, and maximize its ability...I will be interested to see if he can sustain this success.<br/> <br/> And please, do keep posting.</t>
I'm distilling your analysis NYC down to look at the coaching tree. I would have to agree with that, Pellini has been raised in a successfull coaching tree. While not always right, it's a pretty good place to start. All you have to do is look at the coaching tree that led to Stoops, starts with Hayden Fry at Iowa who in retrospect had a tremendous staff at Iowa. Bill Synder, Bob Stoops are a couple that come to mind, then Stoops also worked under Spurrier. So in retrospect Stoops has been around nothing but very successfull coaches who in the case of Fry and Synder did it will less than top talent, so give Stoopsie top talent and we have what we have. In the Pros I think the tree from Bill Walsh includes a lot of guys who are head coaches now. Terry
Hiring Coaches <t>It seems to me that many fans from historically successful programs vastly overestimate the desirability of their school to top-shelf coaches. I remember when Florida thought it could lure Bob Stoops from Oklahoma because he had "Florida connections." Gator fans (and I count myself among them) were crazy to thing that UF was a more prestigious job than OU. UF may have had more success in the last few years but OU looms much larger in the longer history of college football. Sadly, the Zook era ensued.<br/> <br/> We Huskers are the same way. It is arrogant to think that a Greg Schiano, a Brian Kelly or even a Jim Grobe is going to leave a position where he has proven head coaching success for NU just because we think we are such a premier program. Parity is real and a real problem for anyone who wants to build or maintain a dynasty. Given the recent stumbles of USC and Texas, it may be that dynasties like what we grew up with might not be possible anymore. Every school with a vacant coaching position needs to think of itself as a turnaround situation (Michigan included). <br/> <br/> Coaches with proven head coaching records are not going to be leaving their current positions. If a dynasty can be built anywhere (reasons Schiano) why not Rutgers? Why not Kansas (no longer mourning Glenn Mason)? Past performance is no indicator of future performance; not in this new, more volatile and equitable game.<br/> <br/> I guess this is painfully obvious now at Michigan. Michigan is an elite program but neither they nor any other elite program has enough prestige to pluck a head coach from a national championship-level team in a premier conference just because he has ties to the program. <br/> <br/> So we (schools with vacant head coaching positions) need to identify guys who are not necessarily proven, but show a lot of potential. UF took a big risk on Meyer; perhaps OU took an even bigger risk on Stoops. Elite schools can no longer assume that they can pluck proven prime coaching talent from lesser schools, they need to think a little further outside the lines.</t>
Dear God <r><QUOTE><s> </e></QUOTE> A-M-E-N.<br/> <br/> I wish your logic could be transferred onto the crowd over on the ND boards who seem to believe that candidates must first kiss the ring on the decomposed finger of Rockne before submitting their resumes for consideration.</r>
The trees! <t>Terry,<br/> <br/> I think the idea of "coaching trees" could be very valuable for answering the question "where do we find great coaches?"<br/> <br/> Hayden Fry jumps immediately to mind. It is interesting that he never won a National Championship (thanks to THE Ohio State University) and didn't build much of a dynasty at Iowa. Rather, he seems to have had a remarkable talent for hiring and developing coaching talent. Interesting that Pelini spent a year as a graduate assistant with Fry in 1991!<br/> <br/> We could play a fun game called "the six degrees of Hayden Fry" except it would be more like one degree.<br/> <br/> I would love to see a database like the Internet Movie Database for football coaches. It would include every year of every staff of college and pro football for modern history. We could then query the database to see which coaches have been most influential as mentors in producing championships. I think there could be some surprises lurking there. Unfortunately, neither I nor, I suspect, anyone else has the time and inclination to build such a database.<br/> <br/> In addition to the immortal Hayden Fry, Pelini's mentors include:<br/> George Seifert<br/> Pete Carroll<br/> Mike Sherman<br/> Frank Solich<br/> Bob Stoops<br/> Les Miles<br/> <br/> We might also consider his connection to Earle Bruce and John Cooper from his college days or the fact that he went to high school with the Stoops brothers. Now he will be able to count Tom Osborne among his mentors.<br/> <br/> Is there anyone at the tender age of 39 who has such an impressive tree? That is an honest question. There very well could be. Whoever he is may not be a household name but lots of schools should be thinking about hiring him.<br/> <br/> What we know about Pelini based on this is that he "studied" under several of the greatest minds in football. Less obvious is that he developed a good reputation in such circles; each of these coaches must have given positive references. Another great advantage is the contacts he must have made during this time; the rolodex he is now (at this very minute!) combing for assistants.<br/> <br/> Contrast this to Osborne's tree which has not, sadly, borne much fruit. Turner Gill is the cream of the crop and he has shown great potential at Buffalo but not so much that he would be on the radar for many BCS schools besides Nebraska.<br/> <br/> None of this guarantees Pelini's success, sadly. We're dealing in probabilities here. There is a chance we could be going through all of this again in four years.<br/> <br/> ~Matt</t>
NYC, Welcome! n terms of Michigan and its program, there are several conflicting issues. The fan base is extraordinarily myopic and unjustifiably believe that nearly any coach in the nation would be elated to leave his present job for the honor of coaching at Michigan. Contrasted against this is an administration which does not have a track record of paying large salaries to coaches. My sense is that top shelf coaches, regardless of their love for alma mater, are not willing to jump into a pressure cooker unless they receive a salary on par with other high earning coaches. Given that M's football program basically supports all other sports programs, Michigan may veer away from past practices but as can be seen with Miles, they were not prepared to pay what LSU is willing to pay
Salaries <t>Bob,<br/> <br/> Good point about salaries. I work under the assumption that coaches are solely motivated by the opportunity to win championships and build dynasties. The huge recent growth in salaries can be a complicating factor in this, even the strongest home-school loyalties can be tested when hundreds of thousands of dollars are on the line.<br/> <br/> I have no idea why Miles turned down Michigan, I was as surprised as anyone else. I wish like hell that ESPN would quit reporting its rumors as fact. To my relief, the scuttlebutt was right on Pelini, I was afraid that he might change his mind and choose to stay with Miles.<br/> <br/> I think it must be way too easy to feed disinformation to ESPN.<br/> <br/> ~Matt</t>
Welcome Matt, nice first post. I think that Nebraska is getting a good coach and I think the football world will be better when Nebraska and Notre Dame are back as full fledged powers, or at least not struggling like this year. Hey where it comes to Stoops, this is one Gator who believed he was coming in fact still harbor the thought that at one point he did agree to come to Florida. But he didn't and this is also one Gator that is really pleased with our present situation with Urban Meyer. Again welcome aboard.
Finally a breath of fresh air. :wink: Welcome Cornhusker. Read quite a few of your posts over the years on Huskerpedia. Your right, there's some pretty smart cookies on this "Island" here in SkyBox land. 6-7 years ago I had extended an invitation on the Husker BB to get some fans to check out this site and migrate towards it every once in a while. For awhile we had the RedCladloon posting, but then he drifted off to another venture a few years ago. Anyhoots, HMHF is the handle, AJ's the name, born in Omaha, raised, arrested in and still claim Columbus as my home city. Welcome once again.
Now I'll go completely off topic. I count myself as a Gator fan because I spent five years living in Orlando and my best friend is as obsessed with the Gators as I am with the Huskers. I went to a couple of games with him in Gainesville and declared UF my favorite team in the State of Florida which, given my Nebraska perspective, means next to nothing. Still, since UF was the one major Florida school that never beat Nebraska, I figured there was no conflict. As for that Fiesta Bowl a few years back (okay, more than a few), my buddy insists that never happened and I'm making the whole thing up. I believe the shrinks call it "post-traumatic stress disorder." My last trip to Gainesville was a couple of years ago to see the home opener against my beloved (and hopeless) Wyoming Cowboys. I wore all my most shocking yellow and brown paraphrenalia and yelled my damn-fool head off every time UW got a first down, which was not so often. I thought they might know a few things about Meyer from Utah but, alas, they couldn't beat him there either. All season, my buddy's neighbors in the Swamp were asking him when he'd bring "Wyoming Guy" back. My buddy is now painfully aware how the rest of the world felt about Steve Spurrier. I think Meyer is a class act and about the smartest guy in the game. I had a blast watching them last year. This year, I share the frustration. My wife, (an even bigger Cornhead than I am, its how we met) hates it that I like UF. Every time Nebraska has a really bad day, I put on my Florida shirt. Still, I really hate schools that win in basketball too. Its just not fair. Same goes for tOSU for whom I feel no affinity whatsoever. ~Matt
AJ, Good to meet you! Like I said, I am a longtime lurker so I'm familiar with your body of work. It's impressive. Alas, I'm not the same New York Husker who posts on Huskerpedia. I think that guy is upstate somewhere. I've never posted before anywhere and I don't feel like paying good cash money to do so on Huskerpedia. Besides, that discussion gets a little too hot and too stupid from time to time. I think this board is incredibly civil which I credit to active moderators. It is a sign of the culture of this board that several posters use their full real names. I'm not comfortable doing that but I'll act as though you guys are my real neighbors and apologize if I say anything stupid or offensive. I thought the Red Clad Loon was a great pundit and I miss his site. The Colonel is the only other regular Huskerpedia pundit that I read with interest. I look forward to keeping up the discussion. ~Matt
Aaahhhh....your right. His is New York Husker....my mistake. Look forward to posting with you also. psssttt....BTW, watch out for a guy named Gonzo....he hates Cornhuskers... :twisted:
You know NYC, funny you should mention your admiration for this board. The unique style, mix of people and the ideas, thoughts and opinion's are very good IMHO. There better than good. Well, most. (See Gonzo) I have had the pleasure of shaking hands and spending time with several members here. Well spent time indeed. I stopped being a member on Huskerpedia years ago for the main reasons of; (a) EVERYBODY's a HUSKERFAN....nothing wrong with that, however.....(b) each HUSKERFAN knew more than EVERYBODY else....if you know what I mean.
Oh, I know what you mean. I grew up in Lincoln. My father once defined Nebraska as "a million-and-a-half people who think they're smarter than Tom Osborne." This was before his championships. Sometimes it seems like they take all of this WAY TOO SERIOUSLY, but who am I to pass judgment? I was probably 15 years old before it dawned on me that my life would continue as normal after a Husker loss. Now there is nothing MORE normal than a Husker loss. Uggh! ~Matt