Just as a follow-up TOK to your specific assertion re: SOR is telling us that in fact it is highly likely that Texas would match or surpass JMU's record versus the JMU schedule however it is also telling us that is more likely than not - based upon their results this year and historical results of similar teams in years past - that Tennessee or Miami would NOT be able to match their results, fwiw. It's uncertain about Arch's place in the Heisman conversation
That’s informative but “if it is what it is”, then what happened in previous seasons used to be converted into some set of probabilities of what would happen if, doesn’t seem like facts. It sounds like projections based on some software model. No one is saying that SOS should be the deciding factor but it should be considered when having to decide rankings based on wins and losses. If Alabama played 12 Eastern Illinois level teams, finished undefeated, Ohio State played 4 ranked teams and finished 10-2, I would argue Ohio State should be ranked higher. I guess this argument could go on forever so I will bow out now. We’ll see how the season plays out. From my point of view, none of it will matter to me if we don’t beat Auburn.
Sincere apologies if I'm coming across as argumentative, not my intent at all, I have been plagued my entire life with the unquenchable desire to get lost in the minutiae of data-filled rabbit holes which fuel and simultanueously help satiate my number-based OCD. I'm just trying to clarify what this new metric SOR is and is not both for myself and others. SOR is factual in the sense that it measures the probability of a series of events that have happened in the past. That said, it is just another measure to be used in combination with other info based upon their personal preference for everyone to make their own judgements. Regarding your scenario, without having more data, I can't tell you which of those teams would have a higher SOR. If the Ohio State team had one of their 4 losses to Eastern Illinois, it's certain to be ranked behind Bama or if one of those losses had been to a team who had lost to Eastern Illinois than that's likely as well. The answer is that we have to know to whom those losses were against and how they relate in strength to that of Eastern Illinois. Those are exactly the types of questions and complications that SOR is designed to help us overcome. In essence, SOR takes into account everything that is of value to SOS but also takes into account another level of data thereby providing a more informative and precise tool, imo