2025 College Football Season Has Arrived

Discussion in 'Sports Board' started by Don Ballard, Aug 23, 2025.

  1. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Don't know, they say they take it into account, they wouldn't blow smoke at us would they?:D

    FWIW here are the ESPN SOS rankings for the top 12

    Alabama #4
    Georgia #9
    Texas #11
    OU #!2
    A&M #15
    ND #23
    Ole Miss #24
    Ohio State #33
    Oregon #36
    Indiana #39
    BYU #46
    Texas Tech #58

    2025 Resume College Football Power Index - ESPN

    There are a number of metrics at the link click on which ever one you are interested in and it reranks every team from best to worst.
     
  2. Sid

    Sid Well-Known Member

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    I'm surprised there's talk. It's not uncommon for a team to lose a close game early and later in the season surpass the winning opponent. Of course, the most notorious example for ND fans happened in 1993.
     
  3. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    The Chair Mack Rhoades specifically addressed it and said this year they added the Strength of Record (SOR) metric. SOR is the next level derivative to SOS and far superior in that it takes into account how well you performed against a given schedule. SOS actually doesn't take into account wins or losses or how you performed which seems to be kinda the point of the whole ranking system - SOR actually takes the schedule and corrects for that failing.

    Here's the SOR rankings for the top 12:

    2025 FEI Ratings — BCF Toys

    Indiana #1
    Texas A&M #2
    Ohio State #3
    BYU #4
    Alabama #5
    Georgia #6
    Ole Miss #7
    Oregon #8
    Tx Tech #9
    Texas #11
    Oklahoma #15
    Notre Dame #23
     
  4. Sid

    Sid Well-Known Member

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    Interesting. I'm guessing SOR considers Ws and Ls, not scores.
     
  5. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    Sid, that's my understanding as well. Here's how my best pal Gemini explained it for me:

    The SOR Calculation Process (Conceptual)
    1. Define the Benchmark: The calculation first determines the power rating (FPI) of an "average Top 25 team." This acts as a reference team (sometimes referred to hypothetically as "NSU").

    2. Simulate the Schedule: A Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate the average Top 25 team playing the actual schedule of the team being evaluated (Team A) thousands of times.
      • For each game, the FPI is used to determine the probability that the average Top 25 team would win against that specific opponent (taking into account home-field advantage).
    3. Count the Results: The simulation counts how often the average Top 25 team achieves a record equal to or better than the actual record of Team A.

    4. Calculate the Percentage (The SOR):
      • The Strength of Record is the resulting percentage (or probability).

      • Example: If a team is 8-0, and the simulation shows the average Top 25 team only goes 8-0 or better 1% of the time against that schedule, the SOR is 1%.
    Interpretation of the Result
    • A Lower SOR is Better: A lower percentage indicates a more impressive accomplishment. It means the team's record was harder to achieve, as the average Top 25 team would rarely match it.

    • Combining Record and SOS: SOR essentially combines Strength of Schedule (the difficulty of the opponents) with Actual Performance (the win-loss record) into a single metric. It directly answers the question: "How much better did this team perform against their schedule than an elite team would be expected to?"
     
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  6. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    Interesting so BYU has played one ranked team (#17 Utah State). Alabama has played and beaten 4 ranked teams (in consecutive weeks) and BYU has a higher SOR ranking? What is SOR measuring again? And what is it telling us? Did I read that right? BYU record was harder to achieve than Alabamas record?
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2025
  7. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    That's precisely what it's telling you. It's saying that statistically speaking using the historical results of tens of thousands of past games using literally millions of simulations that it's been found to be more difficult to be undefeated with BYU's schedule than to have one loss to a team that doesn't have a winning record with Bama's schedule. It seems self-evident to me that having a loss to an FSU team who is 1-4 in the vaunted ACC on your record will result in a lower "strength of record" or SOR than that of a team that does not have any losses at all, much less a loss against a team with such a record....any loss of course will hurt your record strength, losses against lousy teams will hurt it more. That Bama's SOR is still very high at #5 is testimony to how very difficult is their schedule. In my mind that is exactly why SOR is a far superior measure....strong schedule is great, adding the results of those games only enhances the value of the measure, imo. Should be a good game this week with BYU and Tx Tech.
     
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  8. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    Last week they said no one has ever beaten 4 ranked teams in consecutive weeks….ever….until Alabama did it. It sounds like to me that SOR is just another way to say SOS means nothing, SOR is just counting losses. Oh by the way all 4 teams ahead of Alabama in SOR are undefeated (0 losses). Oh well at least the committee didn’t rank the teams solely based on SOR.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2025
  9. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    We beat 4 ranked teams in 4 consecutive games during the playoff run last year.
    KP, I just don't see it that way. SOS means a helluva lot...it just means more and seems a vast improvement when you take SOS and add game results to it and then to determine the degree of difficulty it has been historically for the average team to duplicate for purposes of comparison. Bama is the highest ranked 1 loss team and there is no 1 loss team with a higher SOS and therefore SOR than Bama due to Bama's SOS.

    I think we can all agree that it would NOT be an improvement on the process if the committee were to only look at the games that we won and ignore the losses. If losses didn't count, South Carolina, Wisky and Illinois would all be ranked right up there with you as their SOS is higher than Bama's. That makes no sense, at least to me...
     
  10. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Well Wisconsin is bringing back Luke Fickell for 2026. A bit of a surprise but buyout and the number of openings around college football might have played a part.
     
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  11. Don Ballard

    Don Ballard Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like a death move for Coach Fickell to me. Talk about pressure, how does one really survive?
     
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  12. BuckeyeT

    BuckeyeT Well-Known Member

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    Glad to hear it but a bit surprised. Hope he gets them back on the right track
     
  13. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Yeah unless they give him the resources so he can go out and hit the portal like IU has done and rebuild the Badgers quickly seems like it's just postponing the inevitable.
     
  14. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    Haha, Wisky and South Carolina’s SOS is only higher because they both played Alabama. I’ve said it before, when you’re highly ranked everybody you play lowers your SOS.
     
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    Last edited: Nov 6, 2025
  15. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    There has been a lot of talk this week in the media about how Miami was screwed by the Committee when they were not only behind the Irish after winning the head/head but 8 slots behind them.

    I'm sure with each weekly ranking there will be a lot of unhappiness about something. I also heard a lot of talk about IU being screwed by not being #1. That Ohio State was getting credit for last year to bolster their slot at #1. But barring something odd happening that will be settled on the field in Big 10 Championship game.

    I look forward to the 16 team playoff which will solve all problems!! :rolleyes:

    I do think that it should be the top 12 or the top 16 teams, but Grouip of 5 won't put up with that and neither will the conferences. The standard conference argument is that there should be a reward for winning the Conference Championship, it means something. Right now those rules will bump off 2 higher ranked more deserving teams. I don't like that my self.
     
  16. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    AD's comment on Wisconsin deciding to up the ante for their program to be competitive.

    With the Badgers 2-6 overall and winless in Big Ten play, McIntosh is informing the Wisconsin team on Thursday that Fickell will return as head coach next year. The return will come with changes, which include increased investment in the roster and program, along with an ongoing analysis of every facet of the program.

    "Chancellor [Jennifer] Mnookin and I are aligned on significantly elevating investment in our program to compete at highest level," McIntosh told ESPN. "We are willing to make an investment in infrastructure and staff. As important is our ability to retain and recruit players in a revenue share and NIL era."
     
  17. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    BuckeyeT, yeah you’re right, they said Alabama is the first team to win 4 consecutive games against 4 ranked teams in 4 consecutive weeks with no off weeks in between. I didn’t go back through all of the records to verify that though.
     
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  18. Stu Ryckman

    Stu Ryckman Well-Known Member

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    Wanna bet??:D
     
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  19. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Patrick Mahomes is in the crowd today for the Texas Tech vs BYU game...Tech currently up 10-0
     
  20. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Boilermakers take the early lead 3-0! :rolleyes: