This topic on a Florida message board makes sense to me. Imagine the betting line if UF doesn't lay the ball on the ground with the last play lateral B/S (and Auburn tacks on 6 points) and instead Florida only loses by 4 points which was more the reality of it. Then....if the ref/review guy says no fumble on Leak's forward motion drop of the ball UF very well could have won the game and then what would the line be? Hmmmm...I tend to agree we are getting a few extra points that maybe are a bargain. http://mb21.scout.com/fufinsiderfrm5.showMessageRange?topicID=41087.topic&start=1&stop=20
I lifted this from a Gator message board which was lifted from a Buckeye message board. The crux of it is that a Buckeye fan was trying to stir the pot by starting a whole topic on the unworthiness of Florida, etc.: "I don't really care as a Gator fan to be honest. Forget that the Gators outrank Michigan in almost every major category mb15.scout.com/fohiostate...21&stop=40 And are 1 bad play from a homer official from being undefeated and this being a moot point www.youtube.com/watch?v=64dPunGqg4k The bottom line is the gators are 1 win away from being national champs, whether by hook or by crook. From MCG: I viewed the You Tube replay linked in that reply and I have to say I have never seen the slo mo version of Leak's fumble and I just don't see how it was a fumble. I agree with Bill who was pretty adamant when it occurred that is was bad call. That call is made correctly and there is no Mich-Fla debate and I don't get my 8 points. On second thought it's very very good to get those 8 points and UF is still in the title game. Nice call ref......thanks!! :lol: :lol:
If, as the writer suggests, the spread is artificially high based upon on something other than the fundamental expectations of the game outcome, it would be unsustainable with the relative money flows forcing the spread to narrow.....this thing thus far has been virtually unchanged since it opened. If there are people that actually believe that, there are either 1) not enough of them or, 2) they don't feel strongly enough to take action, or 3) both. Those kinds of stories are more useful as comfort food than they are money makers, imho....
I think I can speak for most of the Buckeyes on this board...but anyway for myself, I really don't give a crap what some idiot Buckeye fan is going to post on another board. Rumor has it that some Fla. fans post some pretty good BS too. :roll: Bill, stop me...I'M LOSING IT!!!! Gipper is loving this. In all seriousness, Dave, I thought that was a bogus call as well.
Stu...did you watch that You Tube replay? You must have given your response. BT: "If, as the writer suggests, the spread is artificially high based upon on something other than the fundamental expectations of the game outcome" The spread is set always to what is the general perception by the betting public to be a wash either way....that is that 50% go one way and 50% go the other. That is always...without fail the line. It is never a statement by Vegas that they feel one team is X amount of points better than the other based on empirical evidence. This is why the true nature of the Auburn outcome is relevant. The betting public only knows UF lost by 10 points to Auburn. By a large majority the public and it turned out most of the media as well were not keyed in to the fact that Florida very could have and probably should have won that game. What would the line be for the general betting public if it was 13-0 Florida vs. 12-0 OSU is the question. :idea:
No, but I remember watching the slo-mo replays at the time. They'd still be giving us lots of points for being cuter than Gators.
MCG, That's where it starts ....that ain't where it ends up - the flow of money in either direction determines the magnitude and direction of the movement. If masses of Gator money came pouring over the transom at +8, it wouldn't stay at +8, it would move over time to the point of equilibrium between the money flows.....the masses of Gator money ain't buying your argument. Comfort food MCG, comfort food.... 8)
Don't think I get that BT. There ain't enough Gator fans in the world to seriously change a betting line on the NC game. That would be some serious cash. Now if it was something unusual about a UF-Kentucky line or something to that effect then maybe an inside perception could have an impact. The fact is BT the betting public only knows that Auburn beat Florida by 10 whole points because the Tigers were 10 points better and not because of any horrible ref calls, etc. or fluke last play lateral returns and now UF is only 12-1 while OSU is unbeaten at 12-0. And that's a good thing if you want Florida and points.
8) Florida would be a 6 point underdog to Michigan. The Buckeyes are going to hit them harder than they've been hit all season...and this game isn't in the Deep South...
I guess that's precisely my point....the "players", the professional, institutional bettors are the ones that actually lay the cash at the margin and drive the spreads....I guarantee you the money players know more about the Florida-Auburn game than you do.....that's what they do for a living and they are professionals. If the spread was artificial - the big money would take advantage of it and drive it to where they believe it deserves to be based on the merits of both teams. That isn't happening in this case....it tells me the spread is just about where it should be, all things considered.
Wow, I'm finding out things here I didn't know.\ What do you mean this game isn't in the deep south? Azizona isn't in the deep South? I heard if was deeply south of Canada! 8) 8) 8) 8)
I think the spread is set as I said where the general betting public is torn 50-50. The general betting public includes mucho cash on an NC type game profered up by individual bettors who maybe aren't all that savvy. Most of the media for example continually in their analysis if they were making a Michigan case just said..."hey Florida lost by 10 at Auburn"...without any clarification of that. RE: Michigan line I think the same principles apply. Do you truly think if Fla were 13-0 that Michigan would be a 6 point favorite? The Vegas smart guys may privately think Michigan should be favored by 6 over UF but I don't think they set the line that way if UF is undefeated and there was no contrroversy. The info posted on the UF message board just illustrates how the line could and would be different except for some dubious circumstances at Auburn. Without that loss and OSU is -4....not -8. UF is getting a free 4 or 5 points right now.
We are arguing about what a point spread would be (based on the consensus of gamblers, which is a consensus of some knowledgable money mixed with money from morons)...on a hypothetical situation where a certain bad call would not have been made...hypothesizing again that if it were not called the way it was, Fla. would have won the game and been 13-0. We are arguing about what the point spread would be against Michigan (why don't we expand the argument and argue the point spread if both teams were undefeated as well as if they played each other as is?) We are arguing as though these hypotheticals mean something. We need to get a life. :lol:
I don't see the "argument" part of it Stu...just some lively debate. It makes for amusing discussion because we have 5 whole weeks to get this thing on and that's a long...long...time. As a sometimes smart...sometimes moronic bettor (moronic on the occasions I do bet) it does intrigue me a little.
There are too many people with too much money, relevant information, knowledge and the ability to process it for that to happen in the real world....but if that provides you with some degree of comfort then I say go forth and enjoy! 8)
OK, OK...debating, not arguing... Debating hypothetical point spreads in what-if situations like that would prove something. Still say we need to get a life...we got a big football game to play on the field!
:shock: re: No. Arizona is NOT in the Deep South. Arizona is located in the Far West. The game will be played about 340 miles from my house, which is about as far as Florida has traveled in the last 50 years...