SEC Championship: Bama vs. Fla

Discussion in 'Sports Board' started by Motorcity Gator, Nov 9, 2015.

  1. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    Let's face it.... how can Bama lose the SEC West now? Very unlikely it's not Alabama vs. Florida for all the SEC marbles.

    That said.... who gets in whose brain? Saban in McElwain's? Jimmy Mac in Saban's?

    A chess match could ensue for sure for this one.

    I do think McElwain can match wits with Saban and UF has the defensive personnel to keep things close.

    But the loss of Will Grier is an absolute killer for a game such as this against a defense like Vandy's er...... Alabama's....

    8)
     
  2. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    Saban's team may get beat but I don't think anyone "gets in his brain. " Macelwain has done a great job this year but I think he needs a few years to get to intimidating Saban don't you think? :?
     
  3. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    I'll light a candle for the safety of the Gators. :wink:
     
  4. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    I know right? That's why I was pulling mightily for LSU the other night and it's why I started this topic so early.... ( trying to jinx the Tide out of Atlanta )
    LOL....

    I don't mean intimidate Kp.... I am just referring to the intense knowledge each coach has of the other's general tendencies and strategies.
     
  5. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    MCG, ok I guess I misunderstood "gets in his brain". I don't think Alabama's game plan is going to be much of a secret. Let us get by Mississippi State first. Florida gets to worry about playing Alabama now, Alabama still has to worry about the next game.
     
  6. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    About the only edge I can see for Florida in this game....

    The biggest mismatch.... Bama's defense and our offense ,,,, doesn't give us a lot of hope.
     
  7. Don Ballard

    Don Ballard Well-Known Member

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    Dave, any possibility of getting a "Stay" with Alabama, until you get a solid QB in position? :wink:
     
  8. RECcane

    RECcane Well-Known Member

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    I'm all in with Florida's defense making a stand against Alabama's offense but I forecast bad weather ahead when it comes to the Gator offense going against Bama's powerful defense.

    Dave when I attended the Vandy game over the weekend I didn't notice a lot of substitution with the Gator offensive linemen, are they thin at this position? There was a lot of huffing and puffing going on at that position that I consider your weakest link outside of your current QB.
     
  9. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    Don... I would love to have this game ppd until next year.... :wink:

    Ralph we were missing two offensive line starters out with minor injuries and they shuffled the line around last week.... without much success obviously.

    Hopefully we will have everyone back for Atlanta.

    The defense is truly capable of causing issues for the Tide offense.

    The punt return team and punter were also very outstanding on Saturday.

    A couple of key TOs by our defense and maybe a punt return run back for a TD and suddenly we could be in the game with Bama in spite of our below average Qb play.

    We have two chances.... to be in the game at the end with a chance to pull it out.... or losing by 3 Tds if we can't get any of the above.
     
  10. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    I haven't really seen the Gators play this year, so I'm only going off of what I read and the box scores. Houston beat Vandy 34-0, handily to say the least. I figured the Gators would shut them out as well. That the Gator offense was so weak against them, makes me think that you guys have no chance against Alabama's defense.

    I don't know how your defense will hold up against the Tide offense which has been up and down some this year. I'd expect though that if Fournette got 180 yds vs you guys in Baton Rouge that you can expect Derrick Henry to get at least that much and wear out your defense.
     
  11. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    Terry... you describe the losing by three TDs scenario and that is a real possibility.

    However... I also look at the job the Tenn defense did against Bama in Tuscaloosa and UF beat Tenn.... albeit barely.

    If UF gets that close.... and they could with stellar defense and a return or two by Callaway.... then there is a chance for the Gators.

    Speaking of Callaway.... watching him return punts on Saturday was a treat....that kid is a breakaway threat every time he touches the football.
     
  12. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    ....and Alabama still has a lot of work left. :?
     
  13. WSU1996kesley

    WSU1996kesley Well-Known Member

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    There are five teams in the SECW that have not yet been eliminated. There are eight conference games remaining between those teams, leaving 2^8 remaining possibilities (256). Of those 256, the following are the breakdowns:
    • 134 possibilities result in Alabama being the champion
    • 47 for LSU (46*)
    • 44 for Ole Miss (48*)
    • 19 for MSU (18*)
    • 12 for Ark (11*)

    * There are four possibilities that go down to tie-breakers that depend on results beyond my model for which I only took note of to make sure A&M couldn’t in some way wrangle a chaotic tie-break (they can’t). However, in those catastrophic instances, all four of those shift the tie-break to Ole Miss from the other “most likely” result. Two shift from Arkansas and one shifts from each MSU and LSU.


    Of course, this all assumes I've applied the tie-breakers correctly. But, the general relationships of possibilities should be darn close. These percentages, of course, don't represent the true percent likelihood because the matchups between the teams aren't 50/50 propositions. So, although Bama owns a little bit more than 50% of the possibilities, their "chance" is probably closer to 75-80%. LSU and Ole Miss probably each have a chance of about 10%. MSU and Arkansas probably each have a chance of about 1-2%.
     
  14. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    Nice breakdown and I agree that it is not a 50/50 break when it comes to Alabama's chances in the games it plays.

    So a 75-80% probablility sounds right to me.

    I'm still holding out hope though that my jinx will diminish that probablility.

    :wink: 8)
     
  15. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    I was told there would be no Math!! :)
     
  16. Motorcity Gator

    Motorcity Gator Well-Known Member

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    Don't see how MissSt has a chance on Sat...... ( gotta keep this jinx going! )

    Roll Tide!!! See you in Atlanta!
     
  17. Terry O'Keefe

    Terry O'Keefe Well-Known Member Administrator

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    Some say that Saban builds his defense to stop the traditional offense which is one reason he stuffed both UGA & LSU. But that his teams don't do as well vs spread offenses. I'm sure McElwain is well aware of all that Saban does on defense.

    So MSU is a big time spread and Prescott is having a great year. Road game right after a big game at home, who knows what will go down in StarkVegas!

    It'll certainly be interesting to see the point spread vs the Gators.
     
  18. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    Terry,
    I think there is a lot of truth to the fact that Alabama's defense is best geared to traditional offenses, but they have gotten a lot better against the spread teams. Maybe just as important this year is that the Alabama offense has some real punch. Once again Miss St. is a very good team so Alabama has to be on its game.
     
  19. IrishCorey

    IrishCorey Well-Known Member

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    There's 1 coach who successfully got into the heads of several coaches in the SEC since the initial hire of Spurrier at Florida, and Nick Saban hired that dude to be his OC.
     
  20. kp

    kp Well-Known Member

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    You know it's funny, as controversial as Kiffin was in the past, he has been quiet during his tenure at Alabama. Saban closely controls assistant coach's access to the media and Kiffin has been included in that control.