First of all I would hope a little better than 5%...to try to get closer to the 70% "herd" level...which was always just an estimate anyway. LA and NY DO appear to show the benefit of the vaccine because their spike is lower. I don't say any of this stuff is etched in stone. So much is unknown. What we have to do is quit calling everybody a "liar" as soon as a little bit of evidence pops up that maybe calls into question what the other guy had been postulating (not meaning you or me...I'm referring to everybody in general who get so dug into their point of view that they'll never try to look at stuff with logic.) This virus is with us...it will be with us. Look at ANY region's graph internationally. It peaks, then recedes. The peaks seem to be higher initially (the Pandemic) then get less (becoming more epidemic). Countries and states that seemed to do fine with the first wave finally got hit hard with the second or third. Take a look at India...poor vaccine rate, comparatively less health care...and a few weeks ago they had their major, major spike. After a few weeks it has receded. The vaccine will keep those peaks lower and if there isn't as much viral "passing around" by the healthy young population, there will be less chance of mutations that could be worse and that could confound the vaccine effectiveness.
Pfizer Boob Job? A little break from the serious discussion. “I can confirm from personal experience that Pfizer does indeed make ur (sic) boobs grow,” one Twitter user wrote, as reported by 7News. TikTok user Elle Marshall also made the same claim in a short video that has since attracted more than 75,000 likes. “Getting the Pfizer vaccine making my boobs grow almost two cup sizes,” she said in the video. Shocking Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine Side Effect: Women Report Bigger, Swelling Breasts
Congress is going to be under a mask mandate, they will have to wear a well-fitting Surgical Mask or an KN95 Mask (the equvialent of a N95 mask) while in Congress unless they are speaking. Cloth Masks you get all over the place with cute designs on them don't fit that criteria. Personally, even though fully vaccinated I think I'm going back to wearing a mask to church and I never stopped wearing a mask to the Grocery Store or Lowes, etc.
This is anecdotal of course, but a guy on my InsideTexas forum is in the hospital with Covid, Delta variant. He posted this.. He thought he had natural immunity. I am currently in ICU at Northeast Baptist in San Antonio with COVID Pneumonia. I have been here over a week now and have seen the open a beer COVID wing because of the rise in cases. If you start having any shortness of breath symptoms do not wait. They will treat you with a variety of treatments so that you don’t end up in a breathing machine like me. I was told by EMS several times not to go in because they wouldn’t do anything for me other than try to put me on a vent. That was a huge lie. If I make it out of here I will still have to be on oxygen because of the damage to my lungs. If I had gone in a day earlier, I would have probably not even had to go on a breathing machine. If you have any of the symptoms of COVID pneumonia like O2 levels below 93, don’t wait because things move insanely fast after that and it isn’t pretty. Without this breathing machine I would be dead right now, and I can’t even roll over in the middle of the night without gasping for air and my heart rate exploding over 100. Also, the people getting admitted to ICU are all unvaccinated. I am not a for or against vaccination person, but I was definitely skeptical of the vaccines due to them being rushed through without FDA approval so I was taking a wait and see approach. I also had a very minor case of COVID back in November so I thought I still had protection. Just something to consider as whether to get vaccinated. I am not saying to be hysterical, I am saying to pay attention to your symptoms and take them very seriously if you get low O2 levels.
Thank you for sharing, Terry. That is one potential outcome and is useful for people to consider, even if not necessarily indicative of "normal", whatever that may be. I do recommend everyone consider their own (and family's) risk factors when developing a protection plan that can involve vaccinations, masks, distancing, and isolation. Vaccinations appear to provide very good protection from severe symptoms requiring hospitalization and death. Much of the discussion last year was that wearing masks protects OTHER PEOPLE from you. Vaccines do NOT prevent you from getting it, AND TRANSMITTING it. N95 is a NIOSH (USA) standard KN95 is a foreign (China / Korean) "equivalent" standard, approved by FDA rather than NIOSH There are differences in the standard, such as pressure drop allowed, filtration level, etc. but they are both currently considered the best publicly-available protection. I actually had a stash of N95s from my past high-hazard work lives that came in handy. I would like to address a couple of things that probably is no surprise to most of you. One of the reasons many people claim these masks do no good is that their standard only calls for specific performance on a specific particle size (in the case of N95, 0.3 microns) whereas viruses are 0.1 microns or smaller. However, the studies I've seen show that a vast majority of virus particles are borne by moisture through respiration. This process CAN make an N95 type of mask particularly effective. Another reason many people claim these masks are less effective than lab-environment tests show is due to improper fit and use. This is a really good point in that a mask that allows significant bypass at the face / mask interface is not forcing the airborne particles through the filter media. This results in USER DEFICIENT protection. However, N95 type masks can be protective of the user, when used properly. Finally, much of the discussion last year was that wearing masks protects OTHER PEOPLE from you, because you may not know you are ill and still be shedding virus. In this instance, even an improperly worn non-N95 mask can be effective because the virus particles are not directed AT someone with whom you are talking. The travel distance and dispersal radius is significantly reduced even when there is significant bypass because it is still redirected. All of this is to say that: - wearing ANY type of mouth covering can provide SOME protection to those around you. Thus, vaccinated individuals may be best advised to wear ANY mouth covering when in public, or when indoors with other people - distance along with limiting exposure time in an environment with other people can have similar protection. - proper wearing of N95 type masks can provide significant protection TO YOU. Thus, unvaccinated individuals may be best advised to wear N95 type masks when in public. This is what my current understanding of the data says. This doesn't mean it is universally applicable to all individuals and risk groups. TL;DR - live free. or not.
And so ends our ability to ever live without masks... When the E variant arrives... and then the F... and so on...
Notice nowhere in there do I recommend mandates or requirements. Instead, I specifically recommend certain levels of protection to be considered by each individual / family based on the data currently available. I am still opposed to requirements of vaccines and masks in almost all instances. There still may come the day that a variant has an R0 of 10 and a lethality of 100% and the vaccines are proven protection, at which time an obvious case for mandates would then exist. I am of the current opinion that we do not find ourselves in such a state at this time.
Had to look up R0, found some good stuff. From what I read if R0=10 we're all going to die! What do R0 values mean? Three possibilities exist for the potential transmission or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value: If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out. If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic. If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will be transmitted between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic. Importantly, a disease’s R0 value only applies when everyone in a population is completely vulnerable to the disease. This means: no one has been vaccinated no one has had the disease before there’s no way to control the spread of the disease This combination of conditions is rare nowadays thanks to advances in medicine. Many diseases that were deadly in the past can now be contained and sometimes cured. According to a review article published in BMC Medicine, the R0 value of the 1918 pandemic was estimated to be between 1.4 and 2.8. But when the swine flu, or H1N1 virus, came back in 2009, its R0 value was between 1.4 and 1.6, report researchers in the journal Science. The existence of vaccines and antiviral drugs made the 2009 outbreak much less deadly. The R0 for COVID-19 is a median of 5.7, according to a study published online in Emerging Infectious Diseases. That’s about double an earlier R0 estimate of 2.2 to 2.7 The 5.7 means that one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people, rather than the 2 to 3 researchers originally thought. Researchers calculated the new number based on data from the original outbreak in Wuhan, China. They used parameters like the virus incubation period (4.2 days) — how much time elapsed from when people were exposed to the virus and when they started to show symptoms. The researchers estimated a doubling time of 2 to 3 days, which is much faster than earlier estimates of 6 to 7 days. The doubling time is how long it takes for the number of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, and deaths to double. The shorter the time, the faster the disease is spreading. With an R0 of 5.7, at least 82 percent of the population needs to be immune to COVID-19 to stop its transmission through vaccination and herd immunity. The study authors say active surveillance, tracking the contacts of people who contracted the coronavirus, quarantine, and strong physical distancing measures are needed to stop the coronavirus from being transmitted What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections
Kes, given that there would be unmistakable signs that we're headed in that direction, it seems to me that if you (rhetorical) wait until the worst case scenario as you describe it, you are willfully allowing people to become infected and die. Wouldn't it make sense to institute safety mandates early enough to try to save those who choose not to receive the vaccine? If people wanted to ignore the mandates, they could do so at their own risk, but (theoretically) they'd be prevented from potentially infecting others. Just asking.
Correct, Sid, I wouldn't wait until for R0 of 10. As I said, I was being ridiculous to point out there were steps at which mandates / requirements are necessary. I myself don't belief we have reached a state where mandates / requirements are necessary. To expand on the discussion, R0 expresses the readiness with which the virus is transmitted from person to person. There is also a severity index. You can have a virus that is R0 = infinity, but we still wouldn't protect against it if the worst side effect is that we each gained 20 IQ points. If there is no or very little consequence to a virus, there is little need to protect against it. Only if you have high transmission rates AND severity do you need to consider levels of protection. Vaccinated may be at risk for infection, but they are NOT at very high risk of severe consequences. If the only people that are being infected AND are at high risk have CHOSEN not to protect themselves, where is the risk? On a more philosophical note, how many "problems" could we prevent if the chosen few were able to decide and enforce everything for everyone else?
A virus which increases our IQ. Novel thought. Regarding your philosophical question, I understand your point. What you are describing sounds like an oligarchy. I may at times disagree with you, but I respect - and actually admire - the thought and intelligent perspective that goes into your posts. I enjoyed the discussion yesterday among you, Stu, and Terry. Three smart guys who know how to communicate.
Heres a novel idea....wash your hands, stay home when not feeling well, and stay away from folks you wouldn't piss up their ass If their guts were on fire.....wait, that's alot of democrats.
AJ, my #3 grandson has joined the Marines. Age 20, completed 2 years at Ball State with a 2.8 GPA in Criminal Justice, 6'3", 190, not digging the college social scene, wants to serve. He reports Sept. 7 to San Diego. We all are proud of him. I hope that after he has served his time, he comes out with your sense of humor.
Apparently the newest surge is motivating some to go ahead and get the vaccine according to an article in today's Houston Chronicle. On Friday, Texas reported its highest single-day number of vaccines administered in more than a month, with 71,000 doses doled out. While that’s down considerably from the more than 300,000 doses administered daily this April, it represents roughly a 25 percent increase over the average daily vaccination rate logged over the past month, according to a Chronicle analysis of state health data.
Cedan Higgins called family members to deliver the good news. After months of prodding from his parents, the 22-year-old received his COVID-19 vaccine at a pop-up site inside the Food Town grocery store in northwest Houston. He waited because he was worried about the side effects, especially dizziness “Then on the news they were saying there was this new virus coming out called delta,” he said. “When I heard about that virus, that’s actually what gave me the OK to go ahead and get the vaccine… I think overall I probably should have got the vaccine a long time ago.”
Boy, wouldn't that be nice!?!? Yes. I don't disagree that there are times that our chosen leaders must do for the greater good things that have consequences for the fewer. My stance is that those times MUST remain rare and well-considered because the more comfortable we get with that being the norm, the closer we come to that result being the permanent norm. Sid, I love being able to discuss difficult, nuanced discussions with friends / family where there is obvious mutual respect for each other's opinions and life frame that formed those opinions. I am not so sure that my approach and viewpoint, are optimal, even when I write / speak with conviction, but I feel it important for clarity of thought to consider alternative ideas and viewpoints as long as those involved in the conversation do have that respect. Those alternative viewpoints, method of thought, and the insight those bring, is what I have come to value most from my Skybox family.