Bobda, in March when this trend was developing, I was assuming this was indicative of how every state would develop without additional protective measures. It makes sense why transit hubs like NYC, LA, Houston, Dallas, Seattle, etc. would be the beachhead for the US theater of battle against the pandemic, and those places tend to be the highest population density, both of which strongly indicate elevated blue density. However, I haven't seen a really good theory as to why that trend hasn't fully developed in the last two and half months. Although the country did "shut down" for a month, the number of "critical/essential" workers in rural areas (elevated red density) was a much higher percent of the population in urban areas, so one would have expected outpaced growth rate for the rural areas to catch up. But that didn't happen. Now, with the red states having largely loosened restrictions as of almost three weeks ago, there hasn't been a logarithmic jump in the number of cases/deaths that one would have expected to see in those red states, either by now. If the number of tests had declined, then the theory would be that the amount of "hidden" circulation is growing rapidly, but that is not the case in any of the numbers I've seen. In fact, the number of tests continues to grow and while the PERCENT of positives continues to shrink. The raw NUMBER of positives will grow, because the transmission has never stopped, even during the stay at home was in place. The whole goal was to reduce R0 below 1, not 0. At R0 of 1, the growth rate is linear, which is what the goal was (basically containment). There is so much we don't know, and those in charge continue to make decisions with faulty/incomplete/hazy information. However, they are making use of the best information known AT THE TIME the decision is made, and modify those decisions as new information develops. Of course looking back we will find that different decisions should have been made. But for now, the developing trends this month look nothing like what I anticipated in March, April, or the beginning of May. Hell, the leading theory I have is that we're already close to herd immunity due to the number of asymptomatic cases that we've had, or interaction of antibodies from previous/similar illnesses (common cold?).
Thanks WSU.... good post. I think the key is that we have accurate results reporting so we know for certain the percent positive trend of those being tested and which way that is going... up, down or constant.
Think I'll add Nick Saban to the Covid-19 heroes list: Alabama football coach releases PSA on wearing masks - CNN
CDC new puts the fatality rate at .26% about 13 times lower than WHO original estimates. Once again the "scientists" were throwing ********.
In the U.S and around the world also the death rate has been between 5 and 6% of confirmed cases while hospitalizations run between 15-20% of confirmed cases. There may be some folks running around who never knew they had it but there's a hell of a lot of people who had it and suffered mightily from it.
The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3% The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3% So Dave you think that the scientists at the CDC are full of ********? Where do you get your numbers CNN?
1.72 million confirmed US cases with 100,000 deaths. That's close to about 6% dying of those confirmed cases. And yes of the total population of 328 million Americans it's about .0003% with a confirmed infection rate of about .005% of the total US population. So for perspective on that Trump wants only 6 deaths and about 100 infections with 20 hospitalizations to occur among the 20,000 in attendance at the GOP convention in N.C. and he will consider that a success. Sounds like that's worth the risk to be a delegate to me what do you think? Except that if you packed all 20,000 in one arena for 3 days with not even one proud card carrying member of the GOP wearing a mask I think all of the numbers would go way up...so maybe 15 to 20 deaths and maybe 300-400 new infections? Still worth it right?? But I wouldn't blame you if wanted to stay home and not be one of the 60-80 or so delegates that could wind up in the hospital from that convention the way Trump envisions it. What a dangerous egomaniac asshole he is.
Of course, YOU did your own estimates. Missing in you amazing stats is the number of believed asymptomatic cases that the "scientists" believe exist that haven't been tested. This figure is derived from some studies that have been done with groups given the antibody tests that confirm many cases have occurred that weren't reported. But hey, who can argue with someone who knows more than the CDC.
Rest assured Gipper that no one will be wearing a mask and they will be unable to social distance at the GOP convention because Trump wants assurances of a packed arena. The number of infected based on the total population of the U.S. do not at all represent the actual reality of things because so many careless people out there are determined not to follow health guidelines and in those populations the risk of infection is much much higher. How many millions upon millions do stay home and mitigate and take precautions? "The simple act of wearing a mask to protect others during a pandemic is now a political and cultural flashpoint, underscoring the polarization afflicting every corner of American life. President Donald Trump's use of the bully pulpit to defy his own government's advice on face coverings has turned into the era's latest ideologically motivated assault on science and civility. His noncompliance is a symbol of his refusal to adopt the customary codes of the presidency during a crisis and his habit of turning even a dire national moment to political advantage. The episode is unfolding at a particularly intense moment of the President's cycle of distortion and distraction; in a first on Tuesday, Twitter appended a fact-check warning to one of his tweets. Trump and his White House are mocking presumptive Democratic 2020 rival Joe Biden for wearing a mask in public as conservative commentators brand the practice as elite liberal fear-mongering."
I wish the GOP Convention were next week in Charlotte. We could then see more about the risks.... and it would be almost all hard headed Trump supporters bearing the risks with Donald Trump having to live with the results if it didn't turn out well..... although I'm certain he will lie and try to distract as he always does when things don't go his way. But on the other hand if things turned out very well with relatively no infections and deaths then bring on some college football!!! So full speed ahead you brave republicans.... no need for masks or distancing at the GOP Convention. Go there and show the rest of us how foolish we have been and let's get this party restarted!!
Who is warped here Stu? Trump is the one asking for guarantees of exactly the scenario I describe or he threatens to move the GOP Convention!! That is warped as hell to me.... However.... it occurred to me what his really warped sick plan is. Delegates will be tested over and over.... before during and after the convention like no average American could possibly hope to be tested and then when not as many or any get sick Trump will crow about how he is right and the medical community is all wrong..... therefore endangering even more Americans who can't get those tests like that.
Well it's certainly read to me like you were hoping that those people all got sick, so that your views would be validated.
Terry I hope to God no one gets sick from the GOP Convention and any other gatherings and we can all get back to normal. Please let that happen. And if those 20,000 delegates are a representative sample of Americans and no one is hardly coming down with the virus from the convention then that would be awesome..... a most welcome event. But if like I said they are all vigorously tested numerous times and intense contact tracing excludes the infected ones from the 20,000 and then Trump claims some sort of a twisted victory for election purposes when any other American gathering of size would not have near the same safe results because of the lack of the ability to enforce that testing and tracing then that would obviously be a very sick and sinister outcome of the whole deal. I just can't see how otherwise that Trump and Pence can strong arm N.C. into "guaranteeing" that 20,000 will be in attendance. Does that seem like a realistic guarantee to you given what we have going on with so many confirmed cases still surfacing daily around the country?
I still get choked up in reading about Ronald Reagan's national words of comfort when the Challenger blew up..... ending with "They slipped the surly bounds of earth and touched the face of God." From Trump we get: "When the looting starts, the shooting starts." He even retweeted a video in which a supporter says, "The only good Democrat is a dead Democrat."
People say really stupid things...if you don't want to be taken out of context don't leave the door so wide open by being such an idiot...but the guy wasn't advocating death to Democrats. "I’ve come to a place where I’ve come to the conclusion that the only good Democrat is a dead Democrat. I don’t say that in the physical sense and I can already see the videos getting edited where it says I wanna go murder Democrats. No, I say that in the political sense because the Democrat agenda and policy is anti-American right now. It’s where our country’s not coming to a place if you love or hate Donald Trump, our country’s coming to a place if you love or hate America. Because that’s what it’s boiling down to. But um, but as far as Democrats go you had some great conservative candidates. We need to have, I say the reason why the only good Democrat’s a dead Democrat, I’m saying it politically speaking and I’m saying it because we need to have the majorities in the House and the Senate. It’s the only way that we’re gonna put the brakes on a out-of-control governor. Sometimes you have to hit very rock bottom in order to make real change. It can happen in our own personal lives. It happens in community but it’s also happening in government right now. I believe our government is showing the very worst than they have, and I believe that it’s gonna bring about the very best that our country has politically speaking."
For some reason Stu I viewed Reagan's heartfelt message as a message to all Americans not just Republicans. From Trump it's very one-sided.... very divisive and always with his own political ass in mind. Uh.... he doesn't get me all choked up let's just say in the middle of a national crisis.
Instead.... ignorning that there are GOP governors in many states where the unrest is occurring Trump has this unifying message for the country... "And he called on Democratic officials to "get MUCH tougher" or the federal government "will step in and do what has to be done, and that includes using the unlimited power of our Military and many arrests." Elected officials on both sides of the aisle said on Sunday that the President should instead focus on unifying the nation or decline to address the country at all." What a divisive hateful SOB.
It's a terrible situation nationwide. Plenty of blame to go around. Ground zero Dave was Minneapolis with a Democrat Mayor and a Black police chief and a Democrat Governor. Yet to you this is all about the Republicans.
These Democratic mayors and governors are great at coming down on barbers, restaurant owners, beach goers and parents who play catch with their kids in the park. Then when thugs destroy businesses and neighborhoods, they stand their like jellyfish and apologize for rioters being treated roughly by police. We've already seen Trump blamed for hurricanes, forest fires, and a pandemic so you might as well blame him for the riots too. Every one of these Dem governors want Trump to butt out of how they run their states and then when the **** hits the fan they claim it's not their fault. What gutless, incompetent cowards they are.