Texas yesterday had it's highest amount of new cases since the Covid crisis began. Not sure what Texans are doing or not doing but that's not a good trend. Florida and Georgia both have been choppy day to day... with one day being on the high side but every other day it then seems to drop but then goes back up. And Wisconsin yesterday had it's second highest day of new cases since the crisis began.
Cases will undoubtedly go up as testing increases. A better predictor of what is happening would be percentage of positive tests as well as hospitalizations and, of course, deaths. All these will lag behind by one to two weeks so we have yet to see what will happen. Georgia would tend to be important since they were the first to loosen things up and the cause of all the angst and gloom and doom. So far their 7 day moving average looks pretty good. The 14 day moving average looks flat to me...as does Florida's (though the second article below talks about a "steady increase." But you know what? If the graph stays flat what does that mean? Does it mean failure because it would have continued to go down if lockdown continued? Or does it mean we are doing pretty much just as well with limited re-opening as we were with complete lockdown? COVID-19 Status Report Curve in Context: Here's what Florida, Georgia COVID-19 case curve looks like as of May 14
Georgia and Fla are kinda of steady... if not choppy back and forth. Texas has been open for 15 days.... and on day 14 had their highest number of new cases in the crisis. That is not so good.
Texas not looking so hot on this graph; Florida and Georgia doing ok. Wonder if Texas has particular hot spots. Texas Coronavirus Map and Case Count
Texas is decidedly a red state.... and I can't imagine they care too much for what the medical experts say they should be doing over what is being promoted by Trump and Fox News. Since Trump and Fox News have politicized the entire Covid response at this point Texas should be a pretty good indicator after 14 days just what that means to "open up".
Trump announced he is looking to do in-person campaign rallies so I assume he will be in Texas soon...
And then there's Georgia...they are ramping up testing, and the case count is going down when it should be going up...and they were one of the first to ease up. Maybe one size fits all isn't true...maybe even in each state. Maybe Texas should consider what Florida has done...relaxed things in some counties but not in others.
Then there's your old state of Michigan...charts actually look quite good...and the governor won't even open up the hospitals for elective surgery. They are going broke. The models estimated 200,000 admissions due to Covid-19 and they've had only some 3,000.
Well Michigan yesterday spiked to 1191 new cases from under 300 the day before. Must be those Lansing protesters getting what they came for.
May 14th spikes up the new cases to mid-April type numbers for the state of Michigan. It been about 10 days or so since those Lansing protests....... and people doing what they want instead of listening to the governor etc. .... hmmmmm
Wisconsin’s new cases did rise but so did the number of tests. The percentage of positive results in the tested population has not changed:
"The percent of new tests that were positive for the virus Friday was 6.3% — the exact same as the average over the previous six days, despite the uptick in new cases." Very relevant. So like the article says it will be 10 days before you can see any effect of the reopen order.... if any.
The numbers from the Michigan.gov site don't seem to show that spike that the NY Times does. Will wait for next updates to draw any conclusion. https://www.michigan.gov/images/coronavirus/1_Daily_Count_MI_Graphs_690815_7.png
Y'know Dave...this doesn't HAVE to be all one or the other...it doesn't HAVE to be all political. It JUST MIGHT be wrong both for idiots to parade through the capitol with guns and no masks and STILL be wrong for the governor to tell some yard service guy in the Upper Peninsula that he will be arrested if he mows lawns.
".it doesn't HAVE to be all political." It sure as hell doesn't have to be political Stu nor should it be remotely politicized not by Trump.... governors.... Fox News... CNN or anyone. But these protests are front and center and easily identified as MAGA groups by their signs, hats and yes guns and they are egged on by Trump in daily tweets and in other comments he makes constantly. The rub of it is these are NOT Trump's kind of folks..... he's a city dweller through and through but he's been smart enough to say what these very good people want to hear..... all in the name of his re-election. That's my take on what I have seen in recent weeks with regard to government response to the pandemic. Safety vs. Conservatism..... How in hell did it get to be those choices?
The protests in Michigan are not confined to Michigan Militia types. Genesee County is a bright blue county that includes Flint and their Democratic sheriff indicated he will not enforce Whitmer’s extension of the emergency decree. Genesee County sheriff: 'Don't expect us' to enforce state pandemic orders I totally understand the need for restrictions to keep the population safe but further understand that if we keep everyone confined, we risk an economic calamity that may be just as or even more harmful than the virus. I do not envy the responsibility place on those politicians trying to thread the needle between these conflicting goals but we live in a politically toxic time and unfortunately this toxin kills nuanced analysis and provides nourishment to those who frame all disputes as a fight between angelic and satanic forces.
Restrictions would be acceptable if they made sense. Some???? You can go boating in a rowboat or kayak but not a motor boat. You can't have someone cut your lawn but public employees cut the laws of public buildings and highways. You can go into a store and buy tomatoes but not seeds for or tomato plants. A store selling hardware can't open but one selling liquor or lottery tickets can. Just like a law, an executive order can't be arbitrary and capricious.
Rowboats and kayaks are at most two people in the craft whereas in Michigan with powerboats think Jobbie Nooner in June.... one helluva party on Lake St.Clair with tons of people..... and no kayaks or rowboats..... and very little clothes on I might add.... With regard to tomatoes it's more about the store.... groceries are essential to buy and eat a tomato and gardening centers are not.... and those centers are jammed packed this time of year in the Detroit area.