Terry, I believe the 2nd part of the stimulus package dealt specifically with small businesses. It might be wise to read up on that as it has already passed. There's bound to be a few programs in there to help you.
T - That is a tough decision for each small business owner. It is one I do not envy. Best of luck to all of us in these uncertain times.
The hoarding has caused us to run out of food here. I've been buying groceries on line for years now, but the party is over. There's nothing on the shelves. I've tried Stater Bros, Albertson's, Aldine's and even Amazon Pantry; it's no use. Everyone is out of stock on milk, bread, water, hot dogs, Cheerios...everything...even Campbell's soup. We got a surprise today when my ex-daughter-in-law (Rhonda) showed up with loaves of bread and cans of tamales. It turns out that she works for Ralph's Market. I wondered where she went!
My fellow 'boxers, here are the charts updated from 3/26 data. SARS-COV-2-charts-200327 Total cases: This statistic becomes increasingly unreliable. As has been pointed out, it is wholly reliant on the number of tests per capita that are performed. For a while, the country at least had internal consistency by region as to the guidance of when tests would be performed (when presented with symptoms, or close personal contact with a confirmed case). However, the guidance is now not even internally consistent, throwing almost all usefulness for this data out the window. (Areas like New York are now providing more tests per capita than South Korea, while other areas aren't testing unless a positive result would change the nature of care.) Total fatalities: This statistic is likely more reliable than case data, but is by its nature a severely lagging indicator. To wit, the average: - from infection to exhibition of symptoms is 5-6 days (with extremes of 2-14) - time from initial symptoms to death is 14 days (with extremes of 6-41) - time from onset of symptoms to death is 18.5 days As a result, each fatality represents an X-factor of infections that began between 2 and 3 weeks prior. "Simple" mortality: Since the "Total cases" in these trends is the denominator, this statistic is likewise close to useless. It does support reports of several EU countries that are at or nearing critical in their hospitals, but this is not a foundational statistic. Comparing...: In order to use what is most likely the most reliable information, I've developed this new chart to try to track where we were and where we likely are now. Using the reported number of fatalities at least gives us a reliable, consistent starting point for each calculated value. I have made the following four-corner bracketing assumptions for the directly calculated trends (these end on 3/12 for the two 14 day trends and 3/19 for the two 7 day trends): - there seems to be consensus that the mortality of the virus is somewhere in the range of 0.5% and 3.5%. I chose bracketing cases of 0.5% and 2.0%. Please note that the lower the mortality rate, the more infections each fatality represents. - time between infection and death is between 2 and 3 weeks. I chose bracketing cases of 1 and 2 weeks because the trends are not yet mature enough to go back 3 weeks, and the numbers get much bigger at the 3 week end of things. This selection should underpredict actual infection numbers. In order to make a guess as to where the number of infections are currently, I looked at reports for the doubling rate (the rate at which the number of cases doubles). Various studies report 2-3 days, 3-4 days, and 5-6 days. Although this is heavily influenced by the amount of testing done, the studies seemed to generally come from locations where steady testing was being performed. A study from California represented a good median of 4 days. A big caveat to this is that it is impossible to know when sufficient controls have been put in place to effectively curb transmission, which would extend (or eliminate) doubling. The soonest this would have occurred here in the US is Monday. However, with at least half the country not under stay at home orders, and those states with stay at home orders not under draconian lockdown, I would guess we haven't seen much reduction from the 4 day doubling rate yet. At some point, the calculated values (after 3/12 for the two 14 day trends and after 3/19 for the two 7 day trends) will separate from actual, but that won't be apparent until the fatalities trend starts to level off. As long as the fatalities trend continues in a logarithmic manner, the lagging CALCULATED probable cases that existed 2-3 weeks ago is a much better representation of the number of actual infections than the reported number of confirmed positive cases. 3/12 data: - confirmed cases reported: 1,697 - fatalities reported: 41 3/19 data: - confirmed cases reported: 13,789 - fatalities reported: 207 3/26 data: - confirmed cases reported: 85,435 - fatalities reported: 1,295 Case A (too low) - 7 days infection to death (too low), 2.0% mortality rate (too high?): - 10,350 calculated infected on 3/12 - 51,350 calculated infected on 3/18 - 205,400 predicted infected on 3/26 Case B (probable?) - 7 days infection to death (too low), 0.5% mortality rate: - 41,400 calculated infected on 3/12 - 259,000 calculated infected on 3/19 - 821,600 predicted infected on 3/26 Case C (probable?) - 14 days infection to death (2-3 weeks is most likely), 2.0% mortality rate (too high?): - 64,750 calculated infected on 3/12 - 205,400 predicted infected on 3/19 - 624,000 predicted infected on 3/26 Case D (probable? high?) - 14 days infection to death (2-3 weeks is most likely), 0.5% mortality rate: - 259,000 calculated infected on 3/12 - 821,600 predicted infected on 3/19 - 2,496,000 predicted infected on 3/26 - this assumes the doubling rate stayed at 4 after lockdown orders went into effect, possibly/probably/maybe a bad assumption?
This isn't intended to be scary or alarming, but to put the proper amount of respect behind where we find ourselves. I still hear too many people think that their area doesn't have very many cases, when in actuality, there are 10-100x as many as are being reported and they just don't realize it. Social distancing takes everyone to be effective, not just those of us that have direct contact with the at-risk.
This is why I'm respecting it. I'm less concerned with what can happen to me than what I unknowingly can pass to others.
My wife is an RN who used to work at the Detroit Medical Center for 17 years. Since neither of us watch Fox News we see all of the pitiful stories coming from front line medical workers including doctors and nurses pleading for more protective wear like N95 masks and of course ventilators so they don't have to decide who lives or dies. The fact that they have a severe shortage of protective gear is just inexcusable in the United States of America. Placing them at grave risk of serious disease and/or death is unfathomable and sick in and of itself.
Dave I agree with you, there’s no excuse that supplies aren’t available. As far as watching Fox News not really sure the importance in this but I don’t personally watch any national news, show me the local and in my instance the weather that controls all in our business. I did read that out of the blue a warehouse in Oakland found 39 million N95 mask, this warehouse is union managed and as I don’t know why they suddenly have been located it seems as always an agenda was the thought process personally anyone who would play a game like this if true deserves eternal punishment as folks die in the process, much respect to all first responders
Speaking of N95 masks Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News: Federal stockpile of N95 masks was depleted under Obama and never restocked Of course we all know who is blamed for any shortage.
In 2018 Trump fired the entire US pandemic Response Team and never replaced them..... and I guess after three years in office he just never thought rebuilding medical equipment reserves like N95 masks was worth the expense.
Here's a quote from someone involved in the NSC restructuring. "Three days later, Tim Morrison, former senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense on the NSC, wrote in another Washington Post Op-Ed, “It is true that the Trump administration has seen fit to shrink the NSC staff. But the bloat that occurred under the previous administration clearly needed a correction. … One such move at the NSC was to create the counterproliferation and biodefense directorate, which was the result of consolidating three directorates into one, given the obvious overlap between arms control and nonproliferation, weapons of mass destruction terrorism, and global health and biodefense. It is this reorganization that critics have misconstrued or intentionally misrepresented. If anything, the combined directorate was stronger because related expertise could be commingled" Of course people who stick their head in the sand or don't watch FOX news want to believe every lie out there.
FDA holding up mask sterilization technique...Trump pledges help. DeWine and Husted working to expand Battelle mask sterilization efforts
Gents I just experienced 7-8 days of miserable, non stop fever, chills, sore throat, at one point I woke up with this weird chest contsriction that basically scared the chit out of me. That passed then felt great then another round of fever and the ultimate fluids into my chest area. This surprisingly only lasted about 5 hours. The scary part was how fast it affected my respiratory areas. Feeling great now, tried to get tested but nada, not available, one must be on their death bed, not enough test available... Our local state representative who is also a local doctor said if you have a fever, runny nose etc I'm assuming you have Covid 19, stay home, we can’t test you.. Way past that point, going in on Monday to work but still self isolating. Who knows what i experienced but this is worthy of the pain for a few more weeks... Rep. Pigman reports increase in ER patients - Lake Okeechobee News
I'm surprised you didn't qualify for a test, I thought for the most part if you have fever and I don't know where they draw the line you can get the test if combined with breathing problems ( or if you are a NBA player). I think if your fever is say 101, that's probably not high enough. But that had to be very scary, feeling like you have it but not being able to find out if you do in fact have it. I think we know that most of the people with the virus will have mild to moderate symptoms and recover with tylenol and liquids and stuff just like if you have the standard issue flu. So I'm so glad you seem to have recovered, the question is has your body just recovered and you could get sick again, or have you developed immunity. Thanks for sharing Ralph, I hope you stay well.